Seece said:
Both shift most of their consoles through third party but also the overal library, all those little exclusives (and not so little, Gears as an example) do shift hardware. Fable 2 sold over 1m in the US in a couple of weeks, MGS$ pushed PS3 hardware sky high in the US that month, there is stuff we don't even know about that will sell millions.
There are a lot of factors that go into choosing a console, probably the biggest being where your friends are going and what you gamed on last gen, yes those can change (and likely will for a lot of people) but as long as something disasterous doesn't happen then there won't be a monumental shift. (before you say look at Wii to Wiiu and PS2 to PS3.)
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Sorry but those little exclusives are probably meaningless since they move so little hardware. Gears and fable are mid sized titles so I don't see them as a very strong reason to get an X1 compared to halo.
Friends aren't the biggest reasons on choosing a console. It's obviously the games. I would go to say that the X1 was just as disasterous as the PS3 was.