I was looking at the chart on the main VGChartz page and it shows the totals of the Next Gen sales.

4.4 Million for WiiU

1.6 Million for XB1

2.1 Million for PS4

In a large number of the threads, the WiiU is doomed and the XB1 will do OK and the PS4 will dominate.  At least, that seems to be the sentiment of the majority of the people posting - Including myself until today.  It seems obvious to most people here that it is truely too early to call anyone a winner or loser yet.

Let's look at the most obvious #, the Generation totals.  As of right now, the last gen(Wii,360,PS3) account for 260 million total units.  I am sure by the end of 2014, it will be closer to 270 miilion +.  So, if you look at the Next Gen(or current Gen if you want), you can hope that they will sell a total of the same amount of units.  If this is the case, the 8.1 million total units sold so far is only equal to 3% of the total sales of this Next Generation.

With that information in mind, how can we really believe that the WiiU is doomed or that the XB1 will or won't be a huge success or failure or that the PS4 is going to blow the other two away?  The truth is that we can't.  One of the things we like to do is look back at how the last generation played out and apply those scenarios to today.  I think that we can't really do that, as each generation seems to have its own sales patterns that don't seem to match the previous generation or any for that matter.  We know a few things from last gen now that at the time we thought would be completely different:  The Wii being sold out for 2 years!, the 360 even coming close to the PS3 sales totals, the PS3 struggling for 18 months before really taking off, and a few others.

The point is that after only selling 3% of the total, we really don't know much.  I would say that for many of us, we think we will know more in 3-6 months when the launch period is over.  If the last gen teaches us anything, it's that we really won't know much more before the last half of 2015 or even the first half of 2016.

One last thought, I still think that the WiiU is Doomed!     :)

What's the use of asking a question, where the answer is already insinuated?

And look at your poll option (Singular, yes)

Wow, waiting a period of time before making a judgement? That seems like an odd thing to do

Yeah, the PS4 has started well, but it could all turn around. We only have to look back to the launch of the 3DS for evidence the other way

The question is asked because that is what we do here, discuss sales figures.  My OP was mostly about people thinking that we have definitive sales patterns only a few weeks or months into the generation.  THere is always something that the companies can do to change the trajectory of their systems sales, it's just a matter of what and when.

That's why i'm critisizing the title, which is formed as if it's a question. You're stating something and not asking it. You're asking us to agree with you in the OP. So there is really no open discussion to be had here.

I don't think you can tell.

Think about the slow start the PS3 had and it went on to surpass the Xbox 360 in worldwide sales.

Think of the quick start the Wii had. In the past couple years, console and software sales for it have been quite awful.

Think of the Xbox 360 in the US. The Wii trumped it forever, but suddenly Microsoft with an older console picked up steam in sales in the console's fifth year.

Think about how the Xbox 360's (and the PS3 to a smaller extent) osftware and hardware updates revitalized the console.

There are so many unknown factors over the next 5-10 years, that I think it is hard to predict what will happen.

Well if you say Wii U is doomed you are already claiming you know something about the 8th gen. Assuming that the Wii U is an utter failure and sells Gamecube levels then there will be about 248 million consoles to be distributed between the Xbox One and PS4. So in that sense we do know something .

Wii U doomed FTW!

I agree, it's too soon to tell for sure how things are going to pan out in the long run. Things can change; features that we don't think much of now may wind up being really popular with the mass market, or a major system seller may appear on one console and make a bigger impact than we expect any one game to have.

That said, we can make educated guesses about where it's all headed. The Wii U clearly bet big on the touchscreen Gamepad, and so far that hasn't panned out. Now Nintendo is relying on their first party offerings, which given their history doesn't seem like a bad plan. So far that hasn't panned out either, though, and it's perhaps likely that their old franchises will be about as helpful to the Wii U as they were to the GameCube. Which is not very helpful.

Microsoft is clearly betting big on Kinect and the functionality/fluidity of the Xbox One OS. They haven't put as much stock in that as Nintendo has with the Gamepad,though; the X1 is still powerful enough to run the same games as the PS4 (though with visual downgrades in some games), which is more than the Wii U can do for the most part. I don't think it's out of the question that the features of the X1 OS could prove very compelling to the mass market and help propel Microsoft's console into 1st place worldwide in the long run, but it's certainly no guarantee, either.

While Microsoft is trying to revolutionize the living room experience, Sony is taking a more traditional strategy and hoping that the status quo remains in place for the next 6-10 years. They made the most powerful 8th gen console and got the price noticeably lower than the X1 (though I don't think a $500 X1 price tag will be as detrimental to MS as the $600 PS3 price tag was to Sony). They expect you to have maintain the segregation between your TV, your internet browsing, and your games. Early adopters like this, but will this strategy work in the long run, or will the mass market prefer the convenience of having all their living room entertainment accessible from one box? I feel it could go either way. Time will tell.

Wow! Nice post. I agree with everything you said

Smart post. Here are my thoughts

The PS-Vita failing vs. 3DS makes sense only because of the software. I really don't think the price difference between 3DS XL and Vita is that significant. The main disadvantage of Vita vs. 3DS is that you don't have AAA 3rd party efforts on Vita (like you get on PS3/X360/XBO/PS4).

The 3DS is awesome because Nintendo has provided some amazing software for it that work perfectly for a handheld and then 3rd parties have also provided some excellent games for it.

Now looking at "next-gen"

The Wii U has amazing games from Nintendo, and not much support from 3rd parties

The XBO and PS4 will be receiving some excellent games from MS and Sony respective, but also get AAA 3rd party support.

Whatever advantage the Wii U has will quickly erode away if the AAA 3rd Party support doesn't give Wii U anything

Current Pros & Cons for Wii U

Pros:
* $100 cheaper than PS4. But less once you add external HDD to Wii U
* Current exclusive software lineup is substantially better

Cons:
* EA already abandoned Wii U completely in 2013 after having really just Mass Effect 3 and couple sports in 2012
* Take-Two doesn't do anything with Nintendo
* Activision, Ubisoft, Warner Bros, Konami, Capcom, Square Enix all had horrible sales success on Wii U in 2013

Can the Wii U survive against XBO and PS4 when it lacks EA but has Nintendo? I think so... but what if Activision, Ubisoft, and others also pull support? No... at that point it will be completely out of mind except for the few times a year a Nintendo game releases.