Next Gen Sales - We don't really know anything or Do we?

[Shinobi-san]

sth88 said:
I agree, it's too soon to tell for sure how things are going to pan out in the long run. Things can change; features that we don't think much of now may wind up being really popular with the mass market, or a major system seller may appear on one console and make a bigger impact than we expect any one game to have.

That said, we can make educated guesses about where it's all headed. The Wii U clearly bet big on the touchscreen Gamepad, and so far that hasn't panned out. Now Nintendo is relying on their first party offerings, which given their history doesn't seem like a bad plan. So far that hasn't panned out either, though, and it's perhaps likely that their old franchises will be about as helpful to the Wii U as they were to the GameCube. Which is not very helpful.

Microsoft is clearly betting big on Kinect and the functionality/fluidity of the Xbox One OS. They haven't put as much stock in that as Nintendo has with the Gamepad,though; the X1 is still powerful enough to run the same games as the PS4 (though with visual downgrades in some games), which is more than the Wii U can do for the most part. I don't think it's out of the question that the features of the X1 OS could prove very compelling to the mass market and help propel Microsoft's console into 1st place worldwide in the long run, but it's certainly no guarantee, either.

While Microsoft is trying to revolutionize the living room experience, Sony is taking a more traditional strategy and hoping that the status quo remains in place for the next 6-10 years. They made the most powerful 8th gen console and got the price noticeably lower than the X1 (though I don't think a $500 X1 price tag will be as detrimental to MS as the $600 PS3 price tag was to Sony). They expect you to have maintain the segregation between your TV, your internet browsing, and your games. Early adopters like this, but will this strategy work in the long run, or will the mass market prefer the convenience of having all their living room entertainment accessible from one box? I feel it could go either way. Time will tell.

Wow! Nice post. I agree with everything you said