I don't think you can tell.
Think about the slow start the PS3 had and it went on to surpass the Xbox 360 in worldwide sales.
Think of the quick start the Wii had. In the past couple years, console and software sales for it have been quite awful.
Think of the Xbox 360 in the US. The Wii trumped it forever, but suddenly Microsoft with an older console picked up steam in sales in the console's fifth year.
Think about how the Xbox 360's (and the PS3 to a smaller extent) osftware and hardware updates revitalized the console.
There are so many unknown factors over the next 5-10 years, that I think it is hard to predict what will happen.
Author of science fiction and other genres, I write under the pen name Desmond Shepherd. The second season of my series The Permanent Man premieres on November 11, 2014. Pre-order the season premiere The Walls Have Ears on Amazon today!
