The problem with your OP is Nintendo can't click their fingers and have all that software finished. Especially as they're clearly still banking on WiiU making a comeback this holiday, there won't be nearly enough to push games forward like that.

Not to mention, it would leave a massive drought up to the holidays.

Honestly, that'd probably be the best outcome for all involved, just like only a precious few sad, deluded folks still assert the Vita is going to enjoy a bright future.

Funny how Sony and Nintendo are like opposite mirrors, the former is doing great in the home console space and terrible in the handheld space, while the latter is the complete opposite.

I wonder... I'm extremely confident that the PS4 will do the best of the three home consoles, but I'm not convinced it'll be a particularly sterling victory. To be more specific, I would be surprised if it ultimately matched the PS3's lifetime sales figures. But then that kind of does mirror the 3DS, which is doing respectable but not amazing, so your analogy looks more spot on than I originally thought!

It works that way too!

Either way, the 8th generation is already a generation of contraction.No matter how well the PS4 and X1 perform, they won´t be able to make up for the 3DS, Vita and Wii U selling considerably less than their predecessors.

Now, whether that is due to Nintendo and Sony fucking up (with the Vita) or due to forces outside their control or both, is up for debate, and when people saw the 3DS, Vita and Wii U all failing compared to their predecessors, it set off an alarm in some people´s minds that 'console gaming' or 'traditional gaming' or whatever you wanna call it, was imminent danger.So far the PS4 and the X1 seem to have somewhat dispelled that notion at least a little bit, but the true beginning of that story starts when all the hype dies down.

Yeah, even the Wii U had a stellar launch. It's the next calendar year when the picture will become more clear. For what it's worth I expect both of the new systems will outperform the Wii U on a side-by-side comparison, but mostly because they'll actually continue to push their systems rather than passively assume folks will flock to them.

I don't think that's true, at least not in the near-term. I'm going off IGN's release schedule here, but outside of Metal Gear and Titanfall there doesn't seem to be much notable non-ports until Fall.

After that VGX blow away reveal... its pretty obvious my option #1 will be the correct one.