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Forums - Nintendo - 130 million 3DS + 30 million Wii U = 8th Gen Nintendomination!

Soundwave on 18 November 2013
vkaraujo said:
Here is what i think ( in fact i think that we should be happy because everyone is going to make a lot of money):

1- PS4 (100 mil, maybe more but too soon to tell) + PSV (PS4 sucess will make PSV sales recover a lot, maybe around 50 mil)

2- 3 DS (100 mil, more with some luck, but no way more than 120 mil) + WiiU ( some where between 30~50 mil, depending of how nintendo carry it on).

3 - XBOX One (It will be the second in home console, with around 70 to 80 mil). MS will be the less profitable, not only for not having a handheld, but because PS4 will eat their lunch. Also when you have so few exclusive IPs, steam machines can be a big threat.


I think your Vita and Wii U targets are incredibly optimstic and likely to be off base, but the rest of the numbers look about spot on. 



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Lawlight on 18 November 2013

More like 80M 3DS + 30M Wii U



Lawlight on 18 November 2013
Slarvax said:
small44 said:
i don't think 3DS can do 130 millions it's 20 millions less then ds and ds had now already 11 millions lead over 3DS

Launch date differences, DS is one holiday ahead of 3DS.


One holiday ahead - in the US only.



vkaraujo on 18 November 2013
Soundwave said:
vkaraujo said:
Here is what i think ( in fact i think that we should be happy because everyone is going to make a lot of money):

1- PS4 (100 mil, maybe more but too soon to tell) + PSV (PS4 sucess will make PSV sales recover a lot, maybe around 50 mil)

2- 3 DS (100 mil, more with some luck, but no way more than 120 mil) + WiiU ( some where between 30~50 mil, depending of how nintendo carry it on).

3 - XBOX One (It will be the second in home console, with around 70 to 80 mil). MS will be the less profitable, not only for not having a handheld, but because PS4 will eat their lunch. Also when you have so few exclusive IPs, steam machines can be a big threat.


I think your Vita and Wii U targets are incredibly optimstic and likely to be off base, but the rest of the numbers look about spot on. 



I understand, but i really think PS4 will carry Vita on, maybe 50 is too much. Also i belive Ninty can make more than 30 mil Wii U, the 50 is just the roof in case of a really big comeback, but i agree it is really very hard.

Captain_Tom on 18 November 2013

Try 75 million + 20 million = still alive.



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tbone51 on 18 November 2013
Lawlight said:
More like 80M 3DS + 30M Wii U < 120M PS4 + 30M Vita.


Your other predictions are reasonable but your underestimating the 3DS.

2011= 13.2mil

2012=14.4mil

2013= >16mil

Total = At least 43.6mil

 

Then in the next 4 Years (minimum expectations)

2014= 12mil

2015= 11mil

2016= 10mil

2017= 8mil

No less than 85mil! Cuz it'll sell and it wont die intill 2019-2020



tbone51 on 18 November 2013
Captain_Tom said:
Try 75 million + 20 million = still alive.


Bro 75mil? Are you serious? Its already half of that with out its third holiday. 3DS is not selling less than 90mil lifetime



Lawlight on 18 November 2013
tbone51 said:
Lawlight said:
More like 80M 3DS + 30M Wii U < 120M PS4 + 30M Vita.


Your other predictions are reasonable but your underestimating the 3DS.

2011= 13.2mil

2012=14.4mil

2013= >16mil

Total = At least 43.6mil

 

Then in the next 4 Years (minimum expectations)

2014= 12mil

2015= 11mil

2016= 10mil

2017= 8mil

No less than 85mil! Cuz it'll sell and it wont die intill 2019-2020


Yeah, no - the 3DS won't be sell 91.4% of what the DS did in its highest selling holiday quarter this year.



tbone51 on 18 November 2013
Lawlight said:
tbone51 said:
Lawlight said:
More like 80M 3DS + 30M Wii U < 120M PS4 + 30M Vita.


Your other predictions are reasonable but your underestimating the 3DS.

2011= 13.2mil

2012=14.4mil

2013= >16mil

Total = At least 43.6mil

 

Then in the next 4 Years (minimum expectations)

2014= 12mil

2015= 11mil

2016= 10mil

2017= 8mil

No less than 85mil! Cuz it'll sell and it wont die intill 2019-2020


Yeah, no - the 3DS won't be sell 91.4% of what the DS did in its highest selling holiday quarter this year.


It only needs 5.1mil more sales for YoY, its going to do that with ease in the last 8 weeks, but go ahead and make your own format, show me how you get 80mil. 



Screamapillar on 18 November 2013

A year ago I would have said I couldn't see 3DS topping 80-90 million lifetime by the end, but I can honestly say I could see it cresting 100 mil when all said and done, assuming Nintendo is able to pump out the software that is necessary to keep the system selling well throughout the next three years.  Keeping the momentum is vital, moreso than ever nowadays, with all the heavy competition from tablet and smartphone games, as well as the Vita.

I think at this point, it's safe to say 3DS will easily match or exceed total GBA install base by the end of it's lifespan.  We'll pass 45 million before the end of the year, less than three years into the system's lifecycle, and at that point 3DS is already halfway to reaching total GBA sales.  3DS will easily have another year or two of peak sales before things drop off, and by then we'll be talking about sales in the range of 70-80 million or more.  Whether or not 3DS passes GBA or merely matches it... that really depends on when Nintendo decides to release a successor and drop software support for it.   I'm betting Nintendo doesn't release a 3DS successor until holiday 2016, or early 2017.



The Screamapillar is easily identified by its constant screaming—it even screams in its sleep. The Screamapillar is the favorite food of everything, is sexually attracted to fire, and needs constant reassurance or it will die.