Mario Kart 8 has a chance if they bundle it heavily with the system for the rest of the generation.

Otherwise, it's pretty tough.

On the N64/GCN the only game to sell over 10 million was Super Mario 64.

The Wiiu has only sold 3.86 million consoles, of course the game hasn't sold 20+ million.  That doesn't mean it's a weak IP or that it can't compete.  It's selling really well at 2.14m (55% attach rate).  Comparing apples to apples, how many copies of CoD, Fifa, or Assassin Creed do you think would sell on a userbase of 4 million? 

I know this is a rather faulty comparison, but on the Vita's 6M userbase:

1. CoD: .78M (13% attach)
2. Assassin's Creed: .75M (12.5% attach)
3. Fifa 12: .27M (4.5% attach)
4. Fifa 13: .04M (.6% attach)

I'm not sure what you're trying to say. FIFA 12 sold more than 0.27M.

Sorry, that should have been 13 and 14.  I'm trying to say that the IP didn't sell that well to an equivilent sized userbase (PSV).  If it was just as strong then it should have still been able to move units. 

Otherwise, accounting for every system, Fifa is still only selling about 10-13M to a potential userbase of ~300M.  It's not selling 10M because the IP is strong, it's selling 10M because the pool of customers is so large.  Yet you're claiming that a game which sold 26.83M to a userbase of 100M isn't strong enough to compete.  Your claim that NSMB or Mario Kart wouldn't be able compete with those IPs on multiple consoles, (when they can on just 1 console) completely baffles me.   

Your additional claim that Nintendo's numbers shouldn't count because they only happened during the Wii generation doesn't matter.  Fifa's sales before last gen (even released on every system) was lucky to get to 4M.  Look at CoD's sales before last gen, it was lucky to sell a few million.  I guess that makes them flukes as well?  Meanwhile, Mario Kart Double Dash (the weaker IP in your opinion) sells 6.95M to a userbase of 21.74 (32% attach). 

Because people have other systems to buy those games on?

7 is terribly many? That's the amount of 10 million sellers the Wii has, granted, all of them also in fact 20 million sellers. Just in order to bring up by how much, in case you thought I'd lose sleep over that.

With a 100 million userbase and amazing coverage and consumer awareness, it had the perfect conditions, the Wii U does not. Thus, it is a whole lot harder to acheive a 10 million seller on that platform. Was that incredibly hard for you to grasp?

I like the suggestion of Mario Kart, seems like the most likely candidate, Mario Kart Wii was, per my prediction, the highest selling Wii game besides Wii Sports (which was a pack-in from day one). Mario Kart has an attach rate of about 33%, even with an amazing attach rate like that, the Wii U would need about 30 million hardware sales or more, something I think it won't achieve.

Mario Kart 64 sold just below 10 million, on a 33 million (approx) userbase and it didn't have Mario Kart on handheld to share sales with. With both the N64 and Wii as examples, unless the Wii U moves a certain amount of consoles, it is unlikely to ahcieve a 10 million seller.

I feel like you're just messing with me now.  "People have other systems to buy those games on", yet they still purchase LESS.  That's the point.  They have a larger userbase and they still sell LESS games. 

Mario Kart has always sold MORE copies (even with a smaller userbase) than CoD, Assassin's Creed, or Fifa.  That shows it is a stronger IP.   You, on the other hand, have not provided anything at all to back up your flimsy claim. 

It's fine if you want to blindly believe that those other IPs are stronger, but the numbers show that you are wrong.

Mate, your logic is just poor. Mario Kart Wii is a one-off. Mario Kart 7 didn't outsell CoD, AC3 or FIFA so they are bigger IPs that MK. MKWiiU will sell even less.

My logic is poor?  You're comparing the selling power of a game that sold 8.37M to 36.6M customers (attach 23%) and saying it's not as strong as games that sold 10-20M to 300M customers (attach ~ 6.7%).  The ONLY case that you can find where MK is outsold by those other IPs, is when it's cross generational and handhelds vs. consoles.  Your logic is not only faulty, but it's disaffirmed by data and history. 

5th generation: Mario Kart 64 - 9.87M / Fifa - 1.87M

6th generation: Mario Kart DD - 6.95M & 5.47M / CoD ~3M,  Fifa ~5M, AC didn't exist. 

7th generation: Mario Kart Wii - 33.86M & 22.59M / CoD 3 - 28.94M, Fifa 13 - 13.45M, AC ~10M

8th generation (so far): Mario Kart 7 - 8.37M / (PSV,Wiiu,3ds) CoD - .98M, AC - .97M, Fifa 1.37M <---(no good comparison yet)

Do you see the pattern?  I won't even bother posting the attach rates, but I assure you, they don't help your claim.  "Mario Kart Wii is a one-off" that has happened EVERY generation since it's release.  You can't compare Mario Kart 7, on a recently released system with a young userbase, to games that released on EVERY system with very established userbases, to determine the selling strength of an IP.  It's a disingenuous comparison at best. 

You may want to believe that those other IPs are larger, because at some point when they release in the 8th gen they MAY outsell MK (due to a potentially larger userbase), but as of right now that's just wishful thinking.  Your original point was that MK couldn't compete on other systems, when all data shows that it already competes with a much smaller userbase (because of selling power).  Just look at the jump the larger userbase caused between the Gamecube and Wii, and then try to pretend it wouldn't be able to compete with an equivilent 300M userbase.

This is my final response to your one sentence rebuttals, which amount to nothing more than 'it's this way because I want it to be'.

If any game has a shot, its WiiU Mario Kart.