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Forums - Sales Discussion - Vgchartz Sales Prediction League Weekly Results Thread -- Oct 26th Results in!

pezus said:
yo_john117 said:
pezus said:
Yeah I think that is for the best. Point 2 is a strong one against adjusting them. Point 1 too, of course, but that is more for you personally ;p

Yeah and it's also why I tend to give the global chart a few days to breath (read: adjust) before I post the results.

 

Anyways the Hardware numbers are up for the week and I have to say I'm not buying that 360 increase. As far as I know there's no reason for such an increase.

Weekly Hardware Chart 26th October 2013

 

PlatformN. AmericaEuropeJapanGlobal
107,542 110,217 115,058 351,334
43,358 86,699 11,917 179,503
64,994 43,322 258 118,978
29,653 23,004 2,806 60,518
9,554 14,347 24,473 52,356
12,327 10,105 812 25,680
917 10,050 3,685 24,674
4,932 855 20 6,059

Lol wtf. They probably assume BF boosted it a lot. I'm not buying it either. I'd say it's about a 95% chance we will see it adjusted down later.

BF4 didn't come out for that week though. Just Batman Origins and the LEGO game and if anything the PS3 would get a slightly higher bump because Batman Arkham games sell better on the PS3.

 

I did see though that last week numbers were adjusted. PS3 got adjusted down 10k and the 360 got adjusted up about 10k. So that explains whats going on a little bit but doesn't explain why the 360 improved at a higher percentage than the PS3 did.



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pezus said:
yo_john117 said:
pezus said:

Lol wtf. They probably assume BF boosted it a lot. I'm not buying it either. I'd say it's about a 95% chance we will see it adjusted down later.

BF4 didn't come out for that week though. Just Batman Origins and the LEGO game and if anything the PS3 would get a slightly higher bump because Batman Arkham games sell better on the PS3.

 

I did see though that last week numbers were adjusted. PS3 got adjusted down 10k and the 360 got adjusted up about 10k. So that explains whats going on a little bit but doesn't explain why the 360 improved at a higher percentage than the PS3 did.

Whoops, oh yeah we are that far behind. I would like explanations sometimes from the higher ups. This is just weird, especially considering NPD last month.

I think it would be amazing to have a bi-monthly adjustment report where they go over why an adjustment happened.

Global is up as well and I don't buy that Batman sold the same on both the PS3 and 360. I'm going to guess that an adjustment for that will happen in a few days.



Great thread! Missed last week sadly...but I'll be back!



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Oh God I just noticed this:

WiiU 20,138 10,937 2,806 36,560

Surely that is a mistake...if not most of us are going to get killed this week because of it x_x



yo_john117 said:
Oh God I just noticed this:

WiiU 20,138 10,937 2,806 36,560

Surely that is a mistake...if not most of us are going to get killed this week because of it x_x

Oh...okay.

It's going to be hard to predict if things keep changing like this...



I believe in honesty, civility, generosity, practicality, and impartiality.

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PDF said:
yo_john117 said:
Oh God I just noticed this:

WiiU 20,138 10,937 2,806 36,560

Surely that is a mistake...if not most of us are going to get killed this week because of it x_x


Will that number be used because you havent posted the results yet or will you use the orignal number because you said you werent going to adjust once vgchartz does?

What I do is wait a couple of days after the numbers are posted to give them a chance to do any of the quick adjustments they do. 

So basically global numbers usually come in Sunday - Tuesday and I make my charts up the following Friday - Sunday. Any adjustments after that I won't factor in.



Hey everyone. So it was brought to my attention that Vgchartz actually shows hardware sales for the upcoming week before they post them in charts via the hardware tools - http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_date.php

Unfortunately there's nothing I can do about this really so we'll just have to take it as is. Now we don't know how accurate that preliminary graph is but because everyone has access to it I'll be lowing the maximum amount of points you can get for hardware whilst at the same time keeping the negative points that you can get the same.

New hardware point structure will be as follows. 

If your prediction is within .5% of the actual amount, you will get 10 points
If your prediction is within 2% of the actual amount, you will get 4 points
If your prediction is within 4% of the actual amount, you will get 2 points
If your prediction is within 12% of the actual amount, you will get 1 point
If your prediction is over 50% off from the actual amount, you will get -2 points
If your prediction is over 80% off from the actual amount, you will get -5 points

 

Remember this is only for hardware numbers. Software numbers will remain the same as before.



PDF said:
yo_john117 said:

Hey everyone. So it was brought to my attention that Vgchartz actually shows hardware sales for the upcoming week before they post them in charts via the hardware tools - http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_date.php

 

Thats kind of a kill joy. 

I'm guessing it's not that accurate, especially when adjustments happen before I tally up the numbers anyways. Additionally though I'll be slowly moving the end predicting date back a few days over the next few weeks so it won't affect this so much (if it does at all).

I won't be using it either way though.



Grrr. This isn't working as well as I'd hope.

US and UK numbers are up so I had to prematurely close predictions for the 2nd of November.

Next week I'll have predictions end on Wednesday morning instead of Friday Morning.



yo_john117 said:
Grrr. This isn't working as well as I'd hope.

US and UK numbers are up so I had to prematurely close predictions for the 2nd of November.

Next week I'll have predictions end on Wednesday morning instead of Friday Morning.

Wow, things got really screwy these last couple days...

Here's hoping next week, things go a bit better.



I believe in honesty, civility, generosity, practicality, and impartiality.