Need to essentially double its holiday sales year over year though.

2DS and Pokemon won't make 3DS to sell almost 7m more than the last year. It will make the portable sell good during non holiday periods and to increase sales, but not that high. 15m and even 18m looks more realistic.

I don't see a next gen device (3DS/Vita/Wii U/X1/PS4) reaching that mark in one year.

I expect by the end of 2014 that 360 and PS3 will be past 90 million sold each although it gets tough in 2015 when game releases start to dry up for both consoles. I think PS360 will get 100 million before 3DS.

My thinking is the same as yours :)

Highfive*

last year we had Paper Mario for Releases in Nov+Dec... This year we have pokemon xy, and Zelda+Mario Party! I think we will see a minimum of 18mil imo, most 21mil. 2DS will boost sales

Quite a reasoning you have in here. Let's go one point at a time:

1 - 2012 will most probably be worse for PS3 and X360 as they become older and more distant from their peak (which was in 2010). Yet, they are holding quite well. But surpassing the Wii? I don't think we can take it as a safe bet. It may well not happen.

2 - 3DS will go up 2-5 million compared to last year? 12 more million this year? How did you come with those values?

Here are some relevant numbers regarding 3DS sales:

13.25M in 2011

14.41M in 2012

every year until 7-10 Sep:

4.82M in 2011

6.91M in 2012 (43% Up YoY)

5.97M in 2013 (14% Down YoY)

Why would 3DS sell more in 2013 than in 2012? In fact, if take these trends, the console will probably end this year selling 12.44M. Total sales would be then 40M by January 1st 2014, not 45M.

3 - Why would the system do 60M in the next 3 years? Where do those numbers come from?? Consoles usually have their peak in the 2nd year and 3DS looks to go that way. But even if I consider the system can maintain its sales (this is not low end at all), that would be ~13M every year. So 3DS would have sold 79M by the end of 2016...and that's just what PS3 got right now.

4 - Your numbers for the PS3 and X360 are far more real, although I believe PS3 can end its sales at 105M or even 110M and X360 at 100M. But then I don't know how big could be the Wii's number. Probably 105M, who knows... I always thought Wii had won the generation but it seems the fight is still going on. Nevertheless, the 7th generation will go in history as the generation with no clear winner.

5 - You are saying 3DS (a console from the 8th generation of the handheld market) hurts PS3 or X360 (consoles from the 7th generation of the home console market)? That's ridiculous. Why don't you come up with sales of smartphones, personal computers and tablets too?

6 - How does 3DS success can make WiiU successful? You need to come up with arguments and facts that can support your logic, otherwise your sentences will be as empty as saying "If 3DS is selling worse than DS and WiiU is selling worse than Wii, when can we expect Nintendo to run out of business?".

I see 3DS following the GBA trajectory. The GBA had its peak the year FOLLOWING the release of a mainline Pokemon game. It's sales where cut short by the original DS. I predict the 3DS to reach 16 mill this calendar year. 2014 calendar year it will have its peak at 20 mill. After that it will face a downward spiral and end somewhere at the lifetime 90-100 mill mark.