3DS will outsell the 360/PS3 before they outsell the Wii - But do not hold your breath on either of them outselling the Wii ever- Long live the King of last gen!

[Zod95]

spurgeonryan said:

Unless CoD and GTAV together can push the 360 and PS3 up over last year, they should be down from 2012. At that rate, it would take another 2-3 years for both of them to pass the Wii. Maybe longer as system purchases go down for both of them. Meanwhile, the 3DS seems to have gone up by a million in sales each year and this year it will go up 2-5 million compared to all of last year. So in 2-3 years as it enjoys it's golden years as a handheld, it should easily over take these two systems. The original DS had 4 years of 20 plus million sales. The 3DS can and will be a little behind the DS, but should still eek out enough to handle these two. 3DS is at about 33 million now. 12 more million this year ( 17-20 million for 2013) ... 45 million on the low end by January 1st 2014 ... 20 million 2014 ... 20 million 2015 ... 20 million 2016 ... 105 million plus by the end of 2016 and as I said this is at the low end and way behind the DS.

Quite a reasoning you have in here. Let's go one point at a time:

1 - 2012 will most probably be worse for PS3 and X360 as they become older and more distant from their peak (which was in 2010). Yet, they are holding quite well. But surpassing the Wii? I don't think we can take it as a safe bet. It may well not happen.

 

2 - 3DS will go up 2-5 million compared to last year? 12 more million this year? How did you come with those values?

Here are some relevant numbers regarding 3DS sales:

13.25M in 2011

14.41M in 2012

every year until 7-10 Sep:

4.82M in 2011

6.91M in 2012 (43% Up YoY)

5.97M in 2013 (14% Down YoY)

Why would 3DS sell more in 2013 than in 2012? In fact, if take these trends, the console will probably end this year selling 12.44M. Total sales would be then 40M by January 1st 2014, not 45M.

 

3 - Why would the system do 60M in the next 3 years? Where do those numbers come from?? Consoles usually have their peak in the 2nd year and 3DS looks to go that way. But even if I consider the system can maintain its sales (this is not low end at all), that would be ~13M every year. So 3DS would have sold 79M by the end of 2016...and that's just what PS3 got right now.

 

spurgeonryan said:

PS3 will be lucky to make it to 95-100 million. 360 will be lucky to make it to 88-92 million imo.

Nintendo's 3DS initial failure will still easily trounce these guys. If the 3DS which was initially deemed a failure can be this successful, how great do you think the Wii U could be?

4 - Your numbers for the PS3 and X360 are far more real, although I believe PS3 can end its sales at 105M or even 110M and X360 at 100M. But then I don't know how big could be the Wii's number. Probably 105M, who knows... I always thought Wii had won the generation but it seems the fight is still going on. Nevertheless, the 7th generation will go in history as the generation with no clear winner.

5 - You are saying 3DS (a console from the 8th generation of the handheld market) hurts PS3 or X360 (consoles from the 7th generation of the home console market)? That's ridiculous. Why don't you come up with sales of smartphones, personal computers and tablets too?

6 - How does 3DS success can make WiiU successful? You need to come up with arguments and facts that can support your logic, otherwise your sentences will be as empty as saying "If 3DS is selling worse than DS and WiiU is selling worse than Wii, when can we expect Nintendo to run out of business?".