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Forums - Sales - Why do u believe PS4/One will outsell Wii U by March 31?

Seece on 22 September 2013
Zero999 said:
Seece said:
Zero999 said:

they don't have to launch worse than wii u. but unless they launch MUCH better and don't decline after holidays, wii u will be above their combined sales for a while.

MS are manufacturing 7m by the end of their FY (June) they're ore of a wildcard as to whether they'll hit their goal, Sony will tho, they're good at predicting their home console hardware.

Still, both will likely be 4.5m sell through by march so 9m. WiiU may be approaching that by March, it's not selling more than 4m this holiday season so it needs to do about 1.5m in Q1.

they could be manufacturing 20M, the point here is demand.

Demand will be great, the line ups are pretty good. They have a solid audience to sell to as well, the core.



 

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Zero999 on 22 September 2013
Seece said:
Zero999 said:
Seece said:
Zero999 said:

they don't have to launch worse than wii u. but unless they launch MUCH better and don't decline after holidays, wii u will be above their combined sales for a while.

MS are manufacturing 7m by the end of their FY (June) they're ore of a wildcard as to whether they'll hit their goal, Sony will tho, they're good at predicting their home console hardware.

Still, both will likely be 4.5m sell through by march so 9m. WiiU may be approaching that by March, it's not selling more than 4m this holiday season so it needs to do about 1.5m in Q1.

they could be manufacturing 20M, the point here is demand.

Demand will be great, the line ups are pretty good. They have a solid audience to sell to as well, the core.

bolded 1: the price isn't

bolded 2: so does nintendo, it's their main market.



Seece on 22 September 2013
Zero999 said:
Seece said:
Zero999 said:
Seece said:
Zero999 said:

they don't have to launch worse than wii u. but unless they launch MUCH better and don't decline after holidays, wii u will be above their combined sales for a while.

MS are manufacturing 7m by the end of their FY (June) they're ore of a wildcard as to whether they'll hit their goal, Sony will tho, they're good at predicting their home console hardware.

Still, both will likely be 4.5m sell through by march so 9m. WiiU may be approaching that by March, it's not selling more than 4m this holiday season so it needs to do about 1.5m in Q1.

they could be manufacturing 20M, the point here is demand.

Demand will be great, the line ups are pretty good. They have a solid audience to sell to as well, the core.

bolded 1: the price isn't

bolded 2: so does nintendo, it's their main market.

They're fine, PS3 sold 3.5m at $600. MS sold 5m in their first FY too.

Nintendo base is a very small one though.



 

DonFerrari on 22 September 2013

We are going from one corner of impossible to the other... from PS4 or Xbone outselling wiiU before March 2014 to WiiU outselling both... this is a case of Gaussian curve, where most of reasonable people will be in between...

And sony forecasting they expect 5M don't mean they will meet it, but also don't mean that it can't be more (unless they also state they can't make more, which they kind of said when stating they are in full production).

WiiU will be in 6~8M range (i believe closer to 7.5M because of the 8 great sequels/remakes) anything bellow or above will depend on conjecture of factors and a large unforseable.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

torok on 22 September 2013

Well, looking at things now, PS4 will surpass Wii U easily in 2014. March is a little early, but it's possible. They had 1M preorders at some months, it wouldn't be hard to imagine 1.5M to 2M preorders at launch. Sony already confirmed that they will have stock for the preorders and the launch units at retail. They already confirmed that they will have their biggest launch stock ever and will sell every unit easily.

Wii U will probably striggle on hollydays because of One and PS4 stealling the sales. If Sony isn't just talking PR BS about they stock, they would only have to sell 5M or 6M to surpass Wii U lifetime sales and that is hard, but possible. Over 1M on preorders, this launch will be huge and can make it faster than everyone thinks.



Bet with jetforcejiminy: PS4 will pass the Wii lifetime numbers.

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jonathanalis on 22 September 2013

i think is quite possible to X1 sell 3~5 mil til FY
for PS4, 5~6 mil
wii U, 7~10 certainly.

So, ps4 wont outpass wii U til FY, but ps4+x1 combined are quite possible to outpass wii U.



KungKras on 22 September 2013

The game industry does not want them dead.



I LOVE ICELAND!

Playstationfan12 on 22 September 2013

The only way I can see ps4 outselling wiiu by march is if advertising for Nintendo's games is abysmal like the wonderful 101's. Nintendo also needs to discontinue the wii otherwise people will still think the wiiu is a wii accessory. Once that happens they will need to advertise the wiiu console like crazy and ghet everyone to realize that its not an accessory. Otherwise the ps4{ and maybe xbone} will crush it.



zorg1000 on 22 September 2013
KungKras said:
The game industry does not want them dead.


What?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 22 September 2013
torok said:

Well, looking at things now, PS4 will surpass Wii U easily in 2014. March is a little early, but it's possible. They had 1M preorders at some months, it wouldn't be hard to imagine 1.5M to 2M preorders at launch. Sony already confirmed that they will have stock for the preorders and the launch units at retail. They already confirmed that they will have their biggest launch stock ever and will sell every unit easily.

Wii U will probably striggle on hollydays because of One and PS4 stealling the sales. If Sony isn't just talking PR BS about they stock, they would only have to sell 5M or 6M to surpass Wii U lifetime sales and that is hard, but possible. Over 1M on preorders, this launch will be huge and can make it faster than everyone thinks.

Sony is only forcasting 5m shipped by Mar 31. Wii U would have to ship only 1m in the next 6 months for PS4 to pass it.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.