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Forums - Sales - Are the US preorders numbers for next-gen games predictive for next-gen console sales?

I like what i see on that Charts. Evene if the are not 100% accurate.



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As incredible it might look, it seems like PS4 might be leading in the US in pre orders. 5 months ago even a close tie with Xbox one, with Xbox One leading would be considered a victory in the US. Now it seems like PS4 will be leading in the US for this year.



iceboy151 said:
areason said:
holy shit the pre orders of this week....


Yeah, I just saw that. I'm guessing there's just more PS4 bundles available.

 

Far as I know, there isn't a COD Ghosts PS4 bundle here in the US.  COD games predominantly sell better on the xbox consoles (almost treated like a Xbox exclusive by Microsoft), but PS4 version of Ghosts is doing much better.  VGChartz may not be accurate, but it can't be that far off.  The PS4 version outsold the Xbox1 version almost 7 to 1 this week, and it's also way up for total preorders.  This may be foreshadowing how the next-gen consoles will be this holiday.

 

15
Call of Duty: Ghosts (PS4)
Activision, Shooter
22 20,843 66,548
29
Call of Duty: Ghosts (XOne)
Activision, Shooter
22 3,059 45,749



nightsurge said:
Turkish said:
nightsurge said:
Please tell me you aren't using VGCHARTZ pre-order data for this... also, Sony took a huge lead early on because of MS's mishandling of the Xbox One reveal and the price difference. I think they will be much closer by launch.

Not to mention casuals don't pre-order systems and MS are aligning the One to be more attractive to casuals/everyone besides just gamers. Actual sales will not directly reflect pre-orders.


Casuals dont buy systems at launch, especially not at 500 bucks.

They do if marketed well, but regardless the launch window will be very close and tied directly to supply, not so much demand. After launch, the casuals will be doing more of the buying and I think Xbox One will have another strong advantage there.

They don't regardless of marketing, new consoles are directed at gamers first, they're the early adopters. Only one console ever sold to casuals from day 1 and that was the Wii. You dont suppose the xbox will replicate that success lol.



I think we're being fooled somewhat by bundles and different SKUs. When the real tallies come in, I doubt the margin will be anything like it seems. I'm thinking we'll see a slight lead for the PS4 in the US but I still believe the holidays will be a more meaningful boost for the XO. The rest of the world, though, will be PS4.

Except maybe the UK, I have no clue what they're going to do.



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@Turkish

I doubt ps2 attract the casual either, the only one was the Wii and that console was very cheap from the casual perspective.



tuscaniman99 said:
BF4 and WatchDogs are bundled with the PS4 and they were the only options left for people interested in getting a PS4 from Amazon. Hence the BF4 numbers being higher last week. PS4 will obviously outsell the XBox One until next fall at a minimum when I believe the X1 will get a price drop to $399. Fall 2014 will be the interesting holiday. This holiday both consoles will sell out so if PS4 has more stock than it will obviously outsell the X1.

Pretty much this. One will most likely have a couple of huge years later on in the cycle maybe starting holiday 2014 if there is a prie cut. I still think its possible for Xbox to retain its American lead overall even if the press is going against it at the moment. No one really knows until the One/PS4 release which will sell better but going by trends the PS4 would likely win but trends are not the actual outcome and it should be fun on the forums for a couple of years to come.



$100 cheaper is a pretty huge difference.

If Nintendo was smart they'd have just used a modified AMD GPU and trampled both MS/Sony a year early IMO.

People are sick of their PS3/360 and want to upgrade, PS4 is the easy/cheaper option.



Angelv577 said:
@Turkish

I doubt ps2 attract the casual either, the only one was the Wii and that console was very cheap from the casual perspective.


Yeah you're right! Completely forgot about the wii lol.



bevochan said:
iceboy151 said:
areason said:
holy shit the pre orders of this week....


Yeah, I just saw that. I'm guessing there's just more PS4 bundles available.

 

Far as I know, there isn't a COD Ghosts PS4 bundle here in the US.  COD games predominantly sell better on the xbox consoles (almost treated like a Xbox exclusive by Microsoft), but PS4 version of Ghosts is doing much better.  VGChartz may not be accurate, but it can't be that far off.  The PS4 version outsold the Xbox1 version almost 7 to 1 this week, and it's also way up for total preorders.  This may be foreshadowing how the next-gen consoles will be this holiday.

 

15
Call of Duty: Ghosts (PS4)
Activision, Shooter
22 20,843 66,548
29
Call of Duty: Ghosts (XOne)
Activision, Shooter
22 3,059 45,749

They really don't sell that much better on x360 actually. You have to take in to account that the 360 has a much larger install base in the U.S. than the PS3. Currently in the U.S.  Black Ops 2 has an attach rate of 0.17 on 360 and 0.165 on PS3, that's not a big difference. And since Call of Duty is by far the most popular in the U.S. that's why the 360 version always outsells the PS3 version.

Actually if PS4 is say pre-ordered 2:1 compared to XOne is Ghosts is doing fairly well on XOne.