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Forums - Sales - Are the US preorders numbers for next-gen games predictive for next-gen console sales?

nightsurge said:
Please tell me you aren't using VGCHARTZ pre-order data for this... also, Sony took a huge lead early on because of MS's mishandling of the Xbox One reveal and the price difference. I think they will be much closer by launch.

Not to mention casuals don't pre-order systems and MS are aligning the One to be more attractive to casuals/everyone besides just gamers. Actual sales will not directly reflect pre-orders.


To win over the casual market takes two things. You first need a gimmick or what others try to refer to as an innovation. Then you need to have the cheapest price point. Microsoft has their gimmick, but their price point is too high. And for all the people that are spreading these false hopes of a price drop, keep dreaming. It will be at least holiday 2014 before that happens and even then it will be $50. Mark my words. I am getting all 3 systems at launch but I am not living in the fantasy that this generation will be a cake walk for any of the companies. All this catering to the casual market is for the birds. Look at the wii u, the casual market is failing it. And there are a good number of great games on there already. I know I have the black deluxe model. This generation will be fairly close between all 3 and Nintendo will release a new console or revised one in no longer than 2 years time. 



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Lets see what the preorder charts look like after COD:Ghosts multiplayer is revealed August 14. I think after that the COD preorders will give some sort of indication of how many consoles are preordered.



I have a feeling PS4's success will be short lived.



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AnthonyW86 said:
bevochan said:
iceboy151 said:
areason said:
holy shit the pre orders of this week....


Yeah, I just saw that. I'm guessing there's just more PS4 bundles available.

 

Far as I know, there isn't a COD Ghosts PS4 bundle here in the US.  COD games predominantly sell better on the xbox consoles (almost treated like a Xbox exclusive by Microsoft), but PS4 version of Ghosts is doing much better.  VGChartz may not be accurate, but it can't be that far off.  The PS4 version outsold the Xbox1 version almost 7 to 1 this week, and it's also way up for total preorders.  This may be foreshadowing how the next-gen consoles will be this holiday.

 

15
Call of Duty: Ghosts (PS4)
Activision, Shooter
22 20,843 66,548
29
Call of Duty: Ghosts (XOne)
Activision, Shooter
22 3,059 45,749

They really don't sell that much better on x360 actually. You have to take in to account that the 360 has a much larger install base in the U.S. than the PS3. Currently in the U.S.  Black Ops 2 has an attach rate of 0.17 on 360 and 0.165 on PS3, that's not a big difference. And since Call of Duty is by far the most popular in the U.S. that's why the 360 version always outsells the PS3 version.

Actually if PS4 is say pre-ordered 2:1 compared to XOne is Ghosts is doing fairly well on XOne.

My point isn't that COD Ghosts XOne isn't doing well.  My point is that the COD Ghosts XOne preorders are likely predictive of the XOne console pre-orders (likely substantially lagging behind PS4).




pokoko said:
I think we're being fooled somewhat by bundles and different SKUs. When the real tallies come in, I doubt the margin will be anything like it seems. I'm thinking we'll see a slight lead for the PS4 in the US but I still believe the holidays will be a more meaningful boost for the XO. The rest of the world, though, will be PS4.

Except maybe the UK, I have no clue what they're going to do.

hasn't Xbox only really gone against the trend for the rest of the year one or two time during the holidays?  I'm pretty sure this past holiday Sony nearly or did match them even being $50 more still.  So I don't see why X1 would get a big boost being $100 more expensive.  Also don't say Kinect because that was already there the last 3 years to give it an edge.




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I'm not sure how accurate any of the pre-order numbers are for the X1 as myself, my sons, many other people I know who are getting an X1 have not pre-ordered anything at all as we will be purchasing the digital version online on launch. Even the console pre-orders are not reflecting the purchases directly on Microsoft's online Store as we have also done. We will therefore only be able to see the final numbers once MS has released the sales figures for consoles and digitally purchased games.



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Last edited by Oliver4p1 - on 10 January 2026

dsgrue3 said:
nightsurge said:
Turkish said:
nightsurge said:
Please tell me you aren't using VGCHARTZ pre-order data for this... also, Sony took a huge lead early on because of MS's mishandling of the Xbox One reveal and the price difference. I think they will be much closer by launch.

Not to mention casuals don't pre-order systems and MS are aligning the One to be more attractive to casuals/everyone besides just gamers. Actual sales will not directly reflect pre-orders.


Casuals dont buy systems at launch, especially not at 500 bucks.

They do if marketed well, but regardless the launch window will be very close and tied directly to supply, not so much demand. After launch, the casuals will be doing more of the buying and I think Xbox One will have another strong advantage there.

It seems as though your opinions are not based upon logical deductions but mere wishful thinking. 

Tell me, why do you care how well XBO sells?


Hilarious coming from you. But nice try.  Logic is precisely what I am basing my opinions on, apparently unlike you.

Tell me, why do you care so much about people's opinions that favor consoles other than your console of choice? 



nightsurge said:
dsgrue3 said:

It seems as though your opinions are not based upon logical deductions but mere wishful thinking. 

Tell me, why do you care how well XBO sells?


Hilarious coming from you. But nice try.  Logic is precisely what I am basing my opinions on, apparently unlike you.

Tell me, why do you care so much about people's opinions that favor consoles other than your console of choice? 

I am a logical slave, so apparently you've never read my posts. 

We have empirical data that goes against your opinion. I think what you have is better aligned with faith than logic.

I am curious about why anyone cares which console sells better. Your post just seemed to scream it, so I addressed it. Simple as that.