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Forums - Nintendo - How much will the 3DS sell in NPD for october?

 

Predict NPD sales for the 3ds in October 2013

less than 150k 0 0%
 
150k-200k 2 1.67%
 
200k-250k 8 6.67%
 
250k-300k 9 7.50%
 
300k-350k 7 5.83%
 
350k-400k 18 15.00%
 
400k-450k 14 11.67%
 
more than 450k 62 51.67%
 
Total:120
tbone51 on 02 August 2013
Cubedramirez said:
Four hundred thousand will be the baseline, I myself will be picking up a Pokemon game for the first time ever and am considering buying a new 3DS because my wife had this wonderful idea of buying a puppy who likes to chew thick plastic items...

And analog sticks on a gamepad with a #$%^ing screen attached to it which makes it a 140 dollar replacement...


1st time ever O.o Well if thats the case your in 4 a huge *** adventure! 750pokemon+ Your gonna have a blast lol

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tbone51 on 02 August 2013
Einsam_Delphin said:
HikenNoAce said:
Einsam_Delphin said:
HikenNoAce said:
Einsam_Delphin said:

We make a bet! If X/Y sells less than 10 million Ltd (including digital), then you get to change my avatar for a month and I have to say you were right in signature. If it sells more than 10, I change your avatar for a month and you say I was right in signature. Sound fair!?


Meet me halfway. Make it 12M and we have a deal.


That's fine by me! To recap, 12m lifetime (including digital). I say above, you say below. Winner get's 1 month avatar control and 1 year of their victory in the loser's signature. That good?

Done deal.



Alright, it's on! >:D


robbing candy from a cradle... Typical

Cubedramirez on 02 August 2013
tbone51 said:

1st time ever O.o Well if thats the case your in 4 a huge *** adventure! 750pokemon+ Your gonna have a blast lol


Believe it or not Ni no Kuni is the reason why I am excited about the possibilities of a Pokemon game. I read that it's battle system was a homage to Pokemon and Tales games and I found that very rewarding to mastering that system. If this Pokemon title lives up to the hype, I may start going back in and buying some more. 



tbone51 on 02 August 2013
Cubedramirez said:
tbone51 said:

1st time ever O.o Well if thats the case your in 4 a huge *** adventure! 750pokemon+ Your gonna have a blast lol


Believe it or not Ni no Kuni is the reason why I am excited about the possibilities of a Pokemon game. I read that it's battle system was a homage to Pokemon and Tales games and I found that very rewarding to mastering that system. If this Pokemon title lives up to the hype, I may start going back in and buying some more. 



your in for a LOOOOOOOOOOOONG adventure for sure! Buy X and/or Y then get (if you want)Gen 4 or Gen 5 games (there should be a remake of gen 3 on 3ds in 2-3 years imo)



Lonely_Dolphin on 02 August 2013
tbone51 said:
Einsam_Delphin said:
HikenNoAce said:
Einsam_Delphin said:
HikenNoAce said:
Einsam_Delphin said:

We make a bet! If X/Y sells less than 10 million Ltd (including digital), then you get to change my avatar for a month and I have to say you were right in signature. If it sells more than 10, I change your avatar for a month and you say I was right in signature. Sound fair!?


Meet me halfway. Make it 12M and we have a deal.


That's fine by me! To recap, 12m lifetime (including digital). I say above, you say below. Winner get's 1 month avatar control and 1 year of their victory in the loser's signature. That good?

Done deal.



Alright, it's on! >:D


robbing candy from a cradle... Typical


You don't know that!

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HikenNoAce on 02 August 2013
MDMAlliance said:

 

HikenNoAce said:
MDMAlliance said:


There are obviously a lot of people who play who aren't in those categories as well.  I'm not sure you know how unlikely it is for you to not know anyone who plays pokemon unless you live in a remote area or know almost no one.

 

You realise that there are many countries in which Nintendo was/is non-existent, right? Also, in a country of 22M, there's a high chance that I don't know any of the few hundreds of thousands of people who are Pokemon fans.
PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
3 Pokémon Diamond / Pearl Version DS 2006 Role-Playing Nintendo 6.33 4.32 6.04 1.38 18.07
4 Pokémon Ruby / Sapphire Version GBA 2002 Role-Playing Nintendo 6.06 3.90 5.38 0.50 15.85

 

Europe has several millions of people who are pokemon fans.  Your profile says you live in the UK, which is one of the larger markets for videogaming in Europe.  I would say maybe 25%?
So that would mean around 1 million people playing pokemon in a country of a population of 64 million.  That's one in 64 people.  That number goes up for every child you know.  If you know less than a hundred people, I can see it happening.  However, I would say most people in 1st world countries know over 200 people, especially in countries with population sizes such as USA or your own.

edit: Also, it was already assumed from your earlier comment that you live in an area where Nintendo does exist and that pokemon exists as well.  Yes, I know that.  You want to treat me like an idiot?  I can do the same.  

If we assume that the area you live in is 22m population, and a few hundred thousand is 400,000.  The distribution is still relatively high unless you barely know anyone.  It's not nearly as rare as you make it out to be.  The chances are not really that high at all.


Well, in terms of probability, I need to know 55 to know a Pokemon player. And by know I mean meet them and socialise with them regularly. So, as you see, mathematically, it is very likely that someone either doesn't know anyone who played Pokemon or know of someone playing Pokemon.

 

Also, I noticed that you posted sales of a Pokemon games from 7 years ago. You know trends and lives change rapidly in that span, especially when you're young.



tbone51 on 02 August 2013
Einsam_Delphin said:
tbone51 said:
Einsam_Delphin said:
HikenNoAce said:
Einsam_Delphin said:
HikenNoAce said:
Einsam_Delphin said:

We make a bet! If X/Y sells less than 10 million Ltd (including digital), then you get to change my avatar for a month and I have to say you were right in signature. If it sells more than 10, I change your avatar for a month and you say I was right in signature. Sound fair!?


Meet me halfway. Make it 12M and we have a deal.


That's fine by me! To recap, 12m lifetime (including digital). I say above, you say below. Winner get's 1 month avatar control and 1 year of their victory in the loser's signature. That good?

Done deal.


Alright, it's on! >:D


robbing candy from a cradle... Typical


You don't know that!



ok look at gen 5... even though vgc got it listed at 14.75 @, its actually over 15mil making it the least in terms of sales. But remember this, its the shortest gen plus on a dying handheld! Now Pokemon X/Y is much more hyped than the last 3 generation. This game will be no less than 14mil by end of 2014. I wouldn't be suprised if you won b4 the years done :s



Lonely_Dolphin on 02 August 2013
tbone51 said:
Einsam_Delphin said:
tbone51 said:
Einsam_Delphin said:
HikenNoAce said:
Einsam_Delphin said:
HikenNoAce said:
Einsam_Delphin said:


robbing candy from a cradle... Typical


You don't know that!



ok look at gen 5... even though vgc got it listed at 14.75 @, its actually over 15mil making it the least in terms of sales. But remember this, its the shortest gen plus on a dying handheld! Now Pokemon X/Y is much more hyped than the last 3 generation. This game will be no less than 14mil by end of 2014. I wouldn't be suprised if you won b4 the years done :s



Yeah I know all that!

Due to install base it might take a bit longer though.

MDMAlliance on 02 August 2013
HikenNoAce said:
MDMAlliance said:
PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
3 Pokémon Diamond / Pearl Version DS 2006 Role-Playing Nintendo 6.33 4.32 6.04 1.38 18.07
4 Pokémon Ruby / Sapphire Version GBA 2002 Role-Playing Nintendo 6.06 3.90 5.38 0.50 15.85

 

Europe has several millions of people who are pokemon fans.  Your profile says you live in the UK, which is one of the larger markets for videogaming in Europe.  I would say maybe 25%?
So that would mean around 1 million people playing pokemon in a country of a population of 64 million.  That's one in 64 people.  That number goes up for every child you know.  If you know less than a hundred people, I can see it happening.  However, I would say most people in 1st world countries know over 200 people, especially in countries with population sizes such as USA or your own.

edit: Also, it was already assumed from your earlier comment that you live in an area where Nintendo does exist and that pokemon exists as well.  Yes, I know that.  You want to treat me like an idiot?  I can do the same.  

If we assume that the area you live in is 22m population, and a few hundred thousand is 400,000.  The distribution is still relatively high unless you barely know anyone.  It's not nearly as rare as you make it out to be.  The chances are not really that high at all.


Well, in terms of probability, I need to know 55 to know a Pokemon player. And by know I mean meet them and socialise with them regularly. So, as you see, mathematically, it is very likely that someone either doesn't know anyone who played Pokemon or know of someone playing Pokemon.

 

Also, I noticed that you posted sales of a Pokemon games from 7 years ago. You know trends and lives change rapidly in that span, especially when you're young.


Whenever you narrow "know" THAT much, it becomes much harder to "know" someone who plays pokemon.  Almost no one uses the word "know" in that sense.  There are people who have literally 0 people they meet and socialize with regularly.  So you're really playing around with this.

Also, I posted those two rather than the more recent ones because it isn't fair to post more recent numbers due to the fact that Black and White and Black and White 2 have significantly lower sales in Europe due to piracy and stuff on the DS.  Otherwise I would have used the data there.  You should also know that throughout the whole pokemon series' life, data has shown that MORE adults and teens play pokemon NOW than BEFORE.  So yes, they do CHANGE, but against your hypothesis.  Not only that, but you can see across the board that Pokemon has been maintaining millions of sales across generations, only exception being Europe due to heavy piracy on the DS.  You'll see you're proven wrong when X and Y in Europe has over 4 million sales.



HikenNoAce on 02 August 2013
Einsam_Delphin said:
tbone51 said:

ok look at gen 5... even though vgc got it listed at 14.75 @, its actually over 15mil making it the least in terms of sales. But remember this, its the shortest gen plus on a dying handheld! Now Pokemon X/Y is much more hyped than the last 3 generation. This game will be no less than 14mil by end of 2014. I wouldn't be suprised if you won b4 the years done :s


Yeah I know all that!

 

Due to install base it might take a bit longer though.


Does that also mean that Mario Kart 7 will sell 20+ M?