I wouldn't either, I am going to get it on PC as a tech-demo.... But you can see how the great graphics of BF4, AC IV and Watch_Dogs aren't quite system sellers for people sitting on the fence. Do you really want to be paying £400 for a console (once you have got a second controller or camera) and just get a graphical upgrade? For me, Assassin's Creed IV and Watch Dogs look more compelling than anything that Sony or M$ have lined up this year

I am okay with that because I know that down the line it is going to be worth it, but it is hard to say that it is for this year. Once inFamous shows up things start to look better, but even next year, I would be surprised of CoD/AC weren't cross gen.

well, i always planned to buy xb1 or ps4 at release and the other console one or two years later but i'm not really sure about that anymore.

there is only one exclusive must have for me with forza and all the other games i'm interested in are also on pc (battlefield, watch dogs)  or they are exclusive (dead rising, killzone) but not games i really have to play at release. wouldn't be a problem for me to play them a year later.

i still think both consoles will be sold out for a while. at least in america, in europe maybe only ps4.

No...? That's exactly what I'm saying. Nearly every console is sold out when it is released. The thing I was looking at was that it may or may not be a teller of things to come. Since every console is sold out when it releases, that doesn't mean it won't continue to sell well. 

See what I'm saying now? Sold out when released doesn't necessarily equate to continued success.

Again, though, these are general statements. I'm not calling out the XBO or PS4 when saying this.

Why did you reply to kowen then? He didn't say anything about how they'll sell after launch.

I think the adoption rate will be slower than in previous generation, the fans will be willing to buy it during the first 2-3 months but after that there very little reason to pay for a brand new console if all the games are coming for the current one, the new one is not backwards compatible and you have to pay to play online (in the case of PS4 vs PS3).

After launch when is the next next-generation exclusive coming and I mean for both consoles? Infamous: Second Son in march 2014? Something for the Xbox One?

Because Kowen stated that they'd sell out and I stated that that's nothing new. Then I explain to you what my reasoning behind that was. (Because you questioned why I said that.)

Really, it's kind of simple... 

The market buying 7+ year old consoles at ~$200 is not the same as those buying them at launch for $4-500.  Microsoft and Sony will be going after consumers who have owned a 360 or PS3 for years.  As for GTAV, as popular as it will be, it will likely sell to less than 20% of the 360/PS3 userbase.  Plus it is out around two months before the new consoles.

That isn't to say the new consoles have will have guaranteed success, but I don't think these would be the reasons.  A bigger factor would probably be that nearly all the third party games will be coming out on the 360/PS3 as well this holiday.

They sell out at launch, thus GTAV ect won't be a threat, that's all Kowen was saying, your post wasn't replying to anything really.

Of course I knew what you were going to answer. It was obvious.

However, I do believe that sales of the PS3 and 360 could affect the PS4 and One. That's with Price-cuts plus GTAV, though. Just having a game won't be purely enough to make people think that they should maybe buy the PS3/360. (Even though OP didn't mention price-cuts, it's quite possible.) I just don't get how you think them being sold out at first means they won't be affected at all. (If that's what you mean, because you aren't clear.)

Also, Pokemon X/Y won't have any affect on the sales of PS4/XBO/Wii U. That doesn't make sense. (AKA, I agree on that.)

GTA and Pokemon are releasing to early to have any meamingful impact on One and PS4.

Microsoft and Sony wont cut the prices of 360 and PS3, when theyre about to launch new, expensive consoles.

One and PS4, if anything, will harm everything else as attention moves to exciting new technology.