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The market buying 7+ year old consoles at ~$200 is not the same as those buying them at launch for $4-500.  Microsoft and Sony will be going after consumers who have owned a 360 or PS3 for years.  As for GTAV, as popular as it will be, it will likely sell to less than 20% of the 360/PS3 userbase.  Plus it is out around two months before the new consoles.

That isn't to say the new consoles have will have guaranteed success, but I don't think these would be the reasons.  A bigger factor would probably be that nearly all the third party games will be coming out on the 360/PS3 as well this holiday.