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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu early numbers in for 2/3/08

^that is what I thought,

also where are the rest of the numbers, is fam late today?



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

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Wow. I thought the PS3 would get a bump. The numbers must lie somehow!



brawl did great though i thought wii would have sold a little more



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

Louie said:

@ DMeisterJ, greenmedic, Doats, etc.

 

I´ll just quote myself now, look:

 

1,800,000 / 30 = 60,000 units a day which means 420,000 units a week. Now Nintendo has to stockpile for the next christmas season already...


Ha ha ha!  OMG That's so funny.  That is a new one.  Would you mind if I quoted you in my sig?  That Nintendo is stockpiling units for December instead of releasing units when their most anticipated game of this year comes out.  You have to be joking right?  Was that serious?  LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I wish that I knew how to do the laughing emoticon, cause this is flippin hilarious!



DMeisterJ said:
Wow. I definetly have a problem with those numbers. As should and red-blooded Wii owner. So DMC 4 only pushed 3,000 more units than last week. and SSBB only did an extra 15k?

@ Avinash_Tyagi

How could you say that if PS3 numbers didn't rise it's in trouble, when according to Fam. The Wii only rose 10k for the SSBB release. I could have sworn that the whole "nintendo was stockpiling" excuse cropped up last week.

 Ah, DM, if only I had insider information at nnintendo which would let me know if they were stockpiling, but alas I can only guess

 

Perhaps they don't have any to ship, perhaps they were unab;e to get the ship,ents out, who can say except one who works at nintendo, alas I do not



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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The numbers are very low, I wish the real numbers are more big than it.



DMeisterJ said:
Louie said:

@ DMeisterJ, greenmedic, Doats, etc.

 

I´ll just quote myself now, look:

 

1,800,000 / 30 = 60,000 units a day which means 420,000 units a week. Now Nintendo has to stockpile for the next christmas season already...


Ha ha ha! OMG That's so funny. That is a new one. Would you mind if I quoted you in my sig? That Nintendo is stockpiling units for December instead of releasing units when their most anticipated game of this year comes out. You have to be joking right? Was that serious? LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I wish that I knew how to do the laughing emoticon, cause this is flippin hilarious!

 

Yeah, it DOESN'T make sense, which is why I'm wondering what's happening to the unsold inventory based upon a production rate of 415-420k a week. Where is it? It's not sitting on shelves. I can only assume it's sitting in either Nintendo production facility warehouses, or wholesaler warehouses (which would make zero sense since they could move them through retail outlets today).

If Nintendo is not stockpiling the unsold inventory under current production rates, it has to be sitting somewhere. 

The fact that Brawl did not move 175k more more hardware units in Japan has me thinking the only plausible explaination lies somewhere within the distribution channels.



DMeisterJ said:
Louie said:

@ DMeisterJ, greenmedic, Doats, etc.

 

I´ll just quote myself now, look:

 

1,800,000 / 30 = 60,000 units a day which means 420,000 units a week. Now Nintendo has to stockpile for the next christmas season already...


Ha ha ha! OMG That's so funny. That is a new one. Would you mind if I quoted you in my sig? That Nintendo is stockpiling units for December instead of releasing units when their most anticipated game of this year comes out. You have to be joking right? Was that serious? LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I wish that I knew how to do the laughing emoticon, cause this is flippin hilarious!


I just did the math, D.

What do you think? Will Nintendo save its units for the biggest time of the year or will they over-ship Japan because of the Brawl release? I tell you, even though production last year was 1.8 million a month there wasn´t a single week the Wii sold above 300k units before November.

You may think that´s funny but Nintendo is a business company. If they do not plan to increase production they will stockpile every single unit they do not need. What do you think why hardware sales have been so small last february? Because people didn´t buy Wii´s?

Jeez, think before you post and laugh about other people. This is not a fanboy war, it is business. I did some math and was actually surprised myself that everything was making sense.

Tell me why last years Wii numbers have been far less than last weeks and this weeks numbers. Maybe the Wii isn´t as supply constraint in Japan than in the US and those 100k is just as much demand as Nintendo expected? They would not like to undership the brawl release but they´d never overship it.

 

Edit: Please do not always think of others as fanboys. This post was not made to show how great Nintendo is or that the Wii is still selling out everywhere. I am looking for explanations for the numbers.  

 



greenmedic88 said:
 

 

Yeah, it DOESN'T make sense, which is why I'm wondering what's happening to the unsold inventory based upon a production rate of 415-420k a week. Where is it? It's not sitting on shelves. I can only assume it's sitting in either Nintendo production facility warehouses, or wholesaler warehouses (which would make zero sense since they could move them through retail outlets today).

If Nintendo is not stockpiling the unsold inventory under current production rates, it has to be sitting somewhere.

The fact that Brawl did not move 175k more more hardware units in Japan has me thinking the only plausible explaination lies somewhere within the distribution channels.


The question is where? For me the only explanation would be that Nintendo is stockpiling units already. If anyone has another explanation please tell me.

Of course it could be some distribution problem - but I was reffering not only to this week but to all weeks this year: Where are those extra units? They do either stockpiling or they somehow produce less consoles than they tell us. 



Nintendo will never over-ship. I would put stock on that. The only possible scenario in which I could see a glut in inventory is if the Wii does not sell significantly better than last year during the holiday season. That would be a strange sight and I don't think anyone sees that happening. Or... Nintendo ups production by an unrealistic number. But I think they have a pretty good grasp on how many hardware units they can consistently move.

So at least 75k off the top of a 415-420k production to begin stockpiling for the holidays? That's too static. I would imagine Nintendo would be moving as many hardware units as possible during key software releases like Brawl. As unpopular as the viewpoint may be, maybe 100k (or whatever the final JPN number is) does represent current weekly demand. Not supply constrained.

There will be plenty of weeks to stockpile more units during which there are no key softs to assist in moving hardware. So far, it's been more than 75k, but it is still very early in the year. I think there will be a better picture in late February.