Nintendo will never over-ship. I would put stock on that. The only possible scenario in which I could see a glut in inventory is if the Wii does not sell significantly better than last year during the holiday season. That would be a strange sight and I don't think anyone sees that happening. Or... Nintendo ups production by an unrealistic number. But I think they have a pretty good grasp on how many hardware units they can consistently move.
So at least 75k off the top of a 415-420k production to begin stockpiling for the holidays? That's too static. I would imagine Nintendo would be moving as many hardware units as possible during key software releases like Brawl. As unpopular as the viewpoint may be, maybe 100k (or whatever the final JPN number is) does represent current weekly demand. Not supply constrained.
There will be plenty of weeks to stockpile more units during which there are no key softs to assist in moving hardware. So far, it's been more than 75k, but it is still very early in the year. I think there will be a better picture in late February.
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