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Forums - Gaming - Prediction: XBox 1 will win the generation (consoles)

Cold-Flipper on 02 July 2013
Carl2291 said:

Ill counter your points in the OP anyway.

  • The Xbox brand is really only strong in America and Britain. Outside of these areas, the brand really isnt that strong at all.
  • Microsft had Billions to spend when they launched the Xbox. It finished a distant 2nd. Microsoft had Billions to spend when they launched the 360. Theyre currently in last place. Having Billions to spend doesnt mean the product will "win".
  • Is this the same concrete plan that they recently did a 180 on? 

The brand isnt strong enough outside of America and Britain. Theyre gonna get stomped. Its gonna be brutal.

Again, I admit it isn't the best source but according to Google trends, XBox is searched for a lot worldwide and not just in the U.S and U.K. It isn't fair because people normally just say "XBox" for the whole brand instead of PS2, PS3, PS4 and so on. I wasn't saying the brand is bigger than the PS brand, I was just pointing out it's much stronger than people on this site seem to believe. Having money won't guarantee a win but does help a lot and yes, it did help the XB360. I still think that Microsoft does have a plan, it just won't include a ton of digital things at launch. 

 

  • The most powerful console has never before been cheaper than the competition, while at the same time recieving brilliant support from 1st parties and 3rd parties. This is an anomoly and it cant be used as a negative against the PS4. Its a silly point.
  • "Doing things different" isnt necessarily the key to success. I think this is a silly point.
  • Sony really dont need to get into a price war, because the system is already far cheaper than the Xbox One and the Wii U is struggling as it is due to a lack of support. The pricing for the machine is perfect and Sony should be able to hold the $399 tag for at least 2 Years, providing support stays strong for the console (It will).

 I agree, you can't really go off history to the point of win or lose. You can however, make judgement and learn from history in order to make an educated guess. The GameCube was arguably the most powerful of its generation as well as the cheapest. It just didn't have the 3rd party support as you mentioned. Still, PS4 will mainly have multi-plats and I'd bet Wii U will have more exclusives in the end. That is speculation though so who knows. Has a system ever won without doing something special besides for the SNES? NES: Did everything different. PS: CD support. PS2: DVD support. Wii: Motion control. I will admit that the PS4 is a great value and that will only get better but is it enough?

 

  • Wii U Party wont do shit in the grand scheme of things, because the controller doesnt appeal to the mass market. The only way a Pokemon will sell the Wii U in a meaningful way, will be if Nintendo finally push out a proper Pokemon game for the console - This wont happen. We are more likely to get Pokemon Snap U
  • Nintendo have the biggest games, yes. Its not the names that sell though, its the experience. Wii Sports on WIi U will be a totally different experience to Wii Sports on Wii It wont have the appeal.
  • Price means nothing without support - The WIi U doesnt have meaningful support.

Wii Party U has the tabletop games which could attract the casual market and more is to be announced. I could be wrong but I believe that Nintendo does have ideas for the GPad. They just haven't been able to launch those types of games yet because they screwed up their launch games. I was thinking that a Pokemon N.F.C game could be big if done correctly. Not the main series, that will (and should) stay on 3DS. Nintendo will come up with something I'm sure and it won't be Wii Sports U. I still say Pokemon but we will see. The question is...will it actually work? Wii U doesn't have support for now but that Shoud improve overtime.

 

In all seriousness, I think the order will be PS4 >> Xbox One > Wii U

PS4 > 100 Million
Xbox One ~50 Million
Wii U ~ 40 Million
I don't have sales predictions yet but will get back to you :)





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dharh on 02 July 2013

I bought XBOX the first week it came out. Got an X360 before I bought a PS3. Now I'm seriously considering not even buying an XONE. Only some of it has to do with the the huge DRM debacle and their subsequent 180 but instead mostly due to their shitty RPG library, the stupid kinect, and the price.



A warrior keeps death on the mind from the moment of their first breath to the moment of their last.
DM235 on 02 July 2013

My prediction:

PS4 (90 mil) > WiiU (75 mil) > XB1 (70 mil)

With the economy being what it is, price will play a very important part this generation. The only thing I think Microsoft can do to counter is to remove Kinect from the XB1 SKU, and make it a separate accessory. This way they will be on par with the PS4 and win the US and the UK. I am certain Microsoft is currently considering this as they watch their pre-orders numbers come in. I think it is 70% likely that they will reverse their decision to include Kinect with each console.

If Microsoft stays with their $499 price, I expect PS4 and XB1 to be within 5% of each other in the US and the UK (ie about equal). The XBox brand is quite strong in these territories, and a lot of people like their Halo. Titanfall will also do well, and it will be the Gears of War of the next generation. Microsoft is also keeping their timed exclusive deal on Call of Duty, so this will help as well. However, Microsoft have lost their advantage with XBox Live, as PS+ is cheaper ($50 vs $60) and better (because of the free games). Sony is countering SmartGlass with the PS Vita and potentially with any other tablet. Sony is also countering Cloud computing with Gaikai, although I don't expect either to make a big difference (with the possibility of backwards compatibility offered through Gaikai).

The PS4 will win Europe and Asia (because of price). People also favour Sony franchises in these territories. I expect that sales in the UK will be roughly equal between the XB1 and PS4, with the PS4 selling slightly better.

I think many people have discounted the WiiU. I fully expect that Nintendo will lower the price to compete. Coupled with lots of great first party games, sales will take off. I also expect them to do some really innovative stuff with the game pad. However, because the system is underpowered, I expect it to do worse than the Wii, as the major 3rd party franchises just won't look as good. I also think that people underestimate the huge number of Wii owners that like their casual games that will likely get a WiiU when it hits the $199 or $249 price point.



DM235 on 02 July 2013

BTW, I predict that if the WiiU does not hit 10 mil in sales in its first year, Nintendo will drop the price by $100 to help it compete with the PS4 and XB1. 

This will potentially steal some XB1 Kinect customers away, as the price will be too difficult to pass up for many.



WagnerPaiva on 02 July 2013

Well, bold statement, and the WiiU doesn´t seem to get better sales anytime soon, so, if you are right, you a grade A profet, a regular Nostradamus =D



My grammar errors are justified by the fact that I am a brazilian living in Brazil. I am also very stupid.

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Cold-Flipper on 02 July 2013
AnthonyW86 said:
Cold-Flipper said:
AnthonyW86 said:
PS4 will have outsold the Wii-U by the end of next year.

My prediction is much more likely than yours. Do you really believe that will happen? It will have supply issues for one.

Well maybe by March 2015 then. Wii-U is currently tracking behind the Gamecube and that sold over 13 million two years in and 14.5 million by march after that. Even the very expensive PS3 sold over 10 million within a year and almost 13 million by march after. That means that unless Wii-U sales pick up substantialy PS4 only has to outsell the PS3 by 20%-30% to outsell Wii-U by that time. At $399 that should be a walk in the park.

Sorry, I read your post as at the end of this year...

Anyway, I expect Wii U to sell at least 6 Million by the end of the year so I don't know if PS4 can close the gap that quick, if at all.



tuscaniman99 on 02 July 2013

@theprof00
So you think it is smart for them to completely shelve this model and go to strictly a games console with more power and nothing else. You must want the console industry to die.



tuscaniman99 on 02 July 2013

Microsoft is not dropping Kinect. They will drop the price to match the PS4 before that happens. They can afford to match Sony on any price they set if need be.



WrathofTank on 02 July 2013
RolStoppable said:
badgenome said:

No chance. The 360 had everything going in its favor this generation, and it still couldn't outsell the PS3. After the way MS has stumbled out of the gates so far, I don't see how they're going to improve their position generation over generation. The fact that they were apparently willing to scrap their entire "vision" for their console speaks volumes about where the Xbox division is at the moment.

As for the Wii U, the Gamecube had all those same Nintendo series and was also cheaper than the Playstation...

I have to disrespectfully agree with this post. Jackass.

I don't understand your reply



psrock on 02 July 2013

I can see MS winning in the US and UK, early on.



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