My prediction:
PS4 (90 mil) > WiiU (75 mil) > XB1 (70 mil)
With the economy being what it is, price will play a very important part this generation. The only thing I think Microsoft can do to counter is to remove Kinect from the XB1 SKU, and make it a separate accessory. This way they will be on par with the PS4 and win the US and the UK. I am certain Microsoft is currently considering this as they watch their pre-orders numbers come in. I think it is 70% likely that they will reverse their decision to include Kinect with each console.
If Microsoft stays with their $499 price, I expect PS4 and XB1 to be within 5% of each other in the US and the UK (ie about equal). The XBox brand is quite strong in these territories, and a lot of people like their Halo. Titanfall will also do well, and it will be the Gears of War of the next generation. Microsoft is also keeping their timed exclusive deal on Call of Duty, so this will help as well. However, Microsoft have lost their advantage with XBox Live, as PS+ is cheaper ($50 vs $60) and better (because of the free games). Sony is countering SmartGlass with the PS Vita and potentially with any other tablet. Sony is also countering Cloud computing with Gaikai, although I don't expect either to make a big difference (with the possibility of backwards compatibility offered through Gaikai).
The PS4 will win Europe and Asia (because of price). People also favour Sony franchises in these territories. I expect that sales in the UK will be roughly equal between the XB1 and PS4, with the PS4 selling slightly better.
I think many people have discounted the WiiU. I fully expect that Nintendo will lower the price to compete. Coupled with lots of great first party games, sales will take off. I also expect them to do some really innovative stuff with the game pad. However, because the system is underpowered, I expect it to do worse than the Wii, as the major 3rd party franchises just won't look as good. I also think that people underestimate the huge number of Wii owners that like their casual games that will likely get a WiiU when it hits the $199 or $249 price point.







