The 3DS has had to endure more trouble than Nintendo expected to have in during its short cycle. After trying to launch using the power of its brand, it was clear that Nintendo didn't learn from the PS3's mistakes. Initial high pricing, lack of killer software and generally not understanding the new generation. Its launch titles included Nintendogs and Pilotwings resort. Both failed to make a big impact, especially Nintendogs which was a huge success on the DS. After showing a lot of promise the year before by announcing Animal Crossing, Kid ICarus and Luigi's Mansion, which were supposed to be early titles, the 3DS had to had a barren few months with those titles postponed for much later released and suffered a huge dip in sales.
They did manage to rectify this by having a price drop and by releasing two powerhouse titles that started it all: MK7 and SM3D Land. Yes now it made more sense, they needed big games to sell big! Yet somehow with all the momentum entering the 2011 holidays, they didn't capoitalise that in 2012 (except in Japan which has been a whole different story). NSMB was the only big game released and ended up not having the same influence as recent 2D Mario games for various reasons. Kid Icarus, Mario Tennis and Paper Mario were not enough to compliment it, and the 3DS ultimately had disappointing Western sales most notably having a 50% YoY decrease in America during Black Friday week. It wasn't till this year that Nintendo has actually started pushing the 3DS and they're set for a great year.
In all honesty the 3DS has been lucky so far, 30 million sales mostly driven by 2 games is somewhat of a miracle. Of course most of its sales has been contributed by Japan which similar to the DS has kicked off the quickest. Luckily thiyg they seem in control as Luigi's Mansion has started excellently and so has Animal Crossing, the latter seems to be the killer game they so desperately needed. They have also had many games to fill up the months and most notably have a few games this summer with Project X Zone, SMT4 and M&L to compliment the games already released (DKCR, FE, Lego City). All that momentum will be carried to October just before Pokemon will surely ensure the 3DS has a splendid year. And When we thought that was enough, Nintendo announced in April that a Zelda and Mario Party game will be releasing as well. Compare that to Paper Mario last year and it's a major difference. The established library including AC, Mario games, Mario Kart, Kid Icarus, Fire Emblem and Luigi will make sure that the 3DS will become dominant this generation and have a fantastic 2013.
My prediction: 18.5 million sold for 2013.
