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Forums - Sales Discussion - Gran Turismo 6 Sales Prediction Thread

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How much will GT6 sell lifetime?

>15 million, best selling GT game 20 7.81%
 
12-15 million 19 7.42%
 
11-12 million 13 5.08%
 
10-11 million 40 15.63%
 
9-10 million 36 14.06%
 
8-9 million 28 10.94%
 
7-8 million 28 10.94%
 
6-7 million 35 13.67%
 
<6 million, It's going to bomb 33 12.89%
 
There's a Squirrel on the track!!! 4 1.56%
 
Total:256
ethomaz on 22 June 2013

Figgycal said:

3 million is a little low, but to be fair, I didn't expect GT5 to sell as well as it did either, but I think that:

1. There's no buzz to this game (GT5 got a lot of attention because of how often it was delayed and how long people were waiting for a complete Gran Turismo game since ps2 era).Part of the reason there's no buzz is also due to a lack of marketing- I'm already seeing trailers for Madden, COD, BF, etc look at how many views the trailer for gt6 on youtube has- not even 100k.  EDIT: The anouncement trailer did get 400k views, but e3's didn't get to 100k

2. It's the end of the consoles's generation and people are going to be more interested in a next gen racing games ala Drive Club, Forza, etc.

3. Xbox One, PS4, GTA 5, Battlefield 4, Call of Duty 98, and tons of next gen and current gen games are gonna be launching around the same time.

I think 3 million is being real- if not a bit optimistic.

EDIT #2: I'm completely talking out of my ass- I have no idea how to guesstimate game sales. Just my uneducated guesses.

1. The buzz is way bigger than GT5... GT6 had a unique event in Silverstone to be announced... GT6 had one of the biggest booth in E3... there are marketing in all big racing events... just watch Le Mans today (yeah.. it's today the race)... there are more gameplay videos being sharing than all GT5 videos before together... GT6 even outshine Forza 5 and DriveClub at E3... no buzz lol

2. Every GT at end-console generation sold like GT games.

3. GT games never are affect by others games sales... neither new consoles launch.

People can say 8 million... it's fine but 3 million? 600k first week? less than 5 million? lol that's wrong... way wrong... it's even impossible unless the world ends in the GT6 launch day.

So yeah... people never learn... they are doing the same prediction that they did to GT5 lol

3 million is what GT6 will sell in the launch week.



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ethomaz on 22 June 2013

killerzX said:

i think a lot of people will hold off on buying this game, anticipating the PS4 version to release.

thats what im doing. im hoping they release gt6 shortly after on ps4

There is no GT6 version for PS4... there is GT7 in 2015 or later.



Figgycal on 22 June 2013

Lol. I was only being partly serious about 3 mill. I don't know the first thing about how GT usually sells or videogame sales in general. i just like making predictions- and sometimes I'm right and pat myself on the back.

I'm gonna make another guess if you don't mind. I say- 9 million...?



ethomaz on 22 June 2013
Figgycal said:

Lol. I was only being partly serious about 3 mill. I don't know the first thing about how GT usually sells or videogame sales in general. i just like making predictions- and sometimes I'm right and pat myself on the back.

I'm gonna make another guess if you don't mind. I say- 9 million...?

Sorry I'm just a little mad because the sames predicions that people did for GT5 are doing here again... it your predicion I don't have to change what you thing

9 million is a good prediction BTW



mind on 22 June 2013

Well, if the game will be better then gt5, and will come out on ps4 as well, then 15mln+ is done deal.
If game don't make it to the ps4, then sales will be less then gt5.
Start will be worse anyway, because there, literally, no hype around this game right now.



Nintendo 2018

English is not my native language.
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Michael-5 on 23 June 2013
ethomaz said:
Michael-5 said:

First year as in 2013,as in first 52 weeks right? Make sense, stronger week 1, same 1 year, less overall. Slightly more frontloaded.

What do you mean 2nd best GT? What's your favourite? Also since you're guessing DriveClub, want to guess Forza 5 sales? I think Forza 5 will outsell DriveClub, mainly because MS will bundle it like hell, since it has a wide audience, and makes a great bundled game.

First year is like two months... November/December... GT5 did over 5 million 1 month and 4 days.... this time GT5 will be release early November and not late.

GT5 will be the second best selling GT ever... just that... it will outsell GT4 but not GT3.

Forza will sell less than 5 million but over 3 million... Xbone will sell less than PS4 and/or Xbone 360... so Forza will sell less too... yeap DriveClub will sell over 1 million units than Forza 5.

My favorite GT is GT5 but well every new interactio is my favorite GT lol... it's aways seems to be a step ahead in the dribing simulation.

Wow, you think GT6 will sell 70% of it's lifetime stock in 2 months? I have to say I disagree, GT6 will sell well because of strong legs, not because of people who are waiting in line for a mignight launch. Like a bunch of people are saying, GT5 is already on the PS3, so I don't think people will rush to get GT6 right away. However I do think most GT5 owners will pick up GT6 eventually.

It will be interesting to see if GT5 tops GT4, GT4 is still 1 million units ahead of the shipped figure for GT5, so GT5 is going to need to sell 10% more units post GT6 launch. Possible, so it will be interesting.

.....wanna make a bet on Forza 5 sales? You said when you bet you loose, and we're not betting on a franchise you care too much for. I'll bet you that Forza Motorsport 5 will sell over 3 million units by December 31st  2014, and while I can't bet you on this, I think FM5 will outsell FM4 (which is currently at 4 million, may go to 4.5 million) within its lifetime.

My favorite GT is 3. GT3 is kinda the racing game that got me into cars, before GT3 I didn't know much about cars, and I think GT1 and 2's car list largely reflected the Japanese sports car market, and not the global one. GT4 was good too, but it was more or less GT3 with everything upgraded. GT5 was awesome too, but after FM3, I was expecting more from GT5. GT6 might become my favorite now, PD doesn't have to put in as many fake Lambo's and Ferrari's anymore. Too bad about Porsche, damn you EA!!!

ethomaz said:
And people never learn lol.


I learned, I openly admit my low prediction.

P.S. I love how you're owning thi thread.



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skeezer on 23 June 2013

Even as a huge GT fan since GT1 on my ps1, I believe this will be the first GT that wont reach 10 million out of the main series.



^_^

Michael-5 on 23 June 2013
skeezer said:

Even as a huge GT fan since GT1 on my ps1, I believe this will be the first GT that wont reach 10 million out of the main series.

Gran Turismo 2 only sold 9.4 million units. It's the first main series GT game not to break 10 million units .

This would be the second, if it doesn't top 10 million, which is a fair assumption since it's also the first GT game to be released either after the next gen system releases, or within a month of its release.



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mind on 23 June 2013
ethomaz said:

 

DriveClub will sell 5+ milllion lifetime.

Hell no. Why?

The game is free and tied to online(social features), i'm sure there would be complete pack of cars and tracks on psn, so people won't have to buy a full game, if they have ps+, even if game would be great(doubtable), 5m+ is something crazy.  Even gt6 on ps4 would have a hard time selling this kind of quantity.



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English is not my native language.
radiantshadow92 on 23 June 2013
mind said:
ethomaz said:

 

DriveClub will sell 5+ milllion lifetime.

Hell no. Why?

The game is free and tied to online(social features), i'm sure there would be complete pack of cars and tracks on psn, so people won't have to buy a full game, if they have ps+, even if game would be great(doubtable), 5m+ is something crazy.  Even gt6 on ps4 would have a hard time selling this kind of quantity.


it still counts even if its bundled.