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AnthonyW86 on 18 June 2013
RolStoppable said:
forest-spirit said:
Vita < 16k!? WTF?

Didn't it have a sub-20k month before? So no surprise here.

Wii U is bad as well, but it still has a chance to recover.

Overall, the industry is crashing down hard. The upcoming transition is going to be tough, because at this point it looks like only a handful of franchises (CoD, Madden, Assassin's Creed; FIFA in Europe) will be able to pull in good numbers. The X1 is doomed to failure with its price point and the PS4's price only looks good in comparison to the X1. On its own, $399 is expensive too. It looks like being #1 in the console race won't cut it, just like being #1 in the handheld space doesn't mean much. The 3DS is absolutely dominating the PSV, but the numbers are still less than satisfying.

$399 is not expensive, adjusted for inflation it's $299 back in 2000. In other words the same price as the PS2. I think crashing is overreacting, but i don't think Xbox One and PS4 can fill in the gap that Wii>Wii-U is leaving behind.



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binary solo on 18 June 2013
RolStoppable said:
NiKKoM said:

Is it too soon for me to claim victory for smartphones?

Yes, unless you want to change the narrative to "smartphones are killing handhelds and home consoles alike".

Smartphones + Tablets.

I've been saying for several months that gen 8 of home consoles is going to be smaller than gen 7. That's because the Wii blue ocean swan across to smartphone and tablet land leaving us more or less with gen 6 numbers + new markets (as in countries, not demographics) since gen 6.

I'd love to be proved wrong. Hopefully you can post me a great big I told you so in 5 years time when PS4/Xbone/Wii U have cracked the half way point to  Mehdi's fabled 1 billion mark.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

DélioPT on 18 June 2013
ethomaz said:
DélioPT said:
It seems that the user at neogaf who posted the Wii U numbers doesn`t really have access to numbers and is only making a prediction.

There are two... the one that postes > 30k have access... the other one < 34k I don't know.

Was it Creamsugar? I only know one who has access.



Soundwave on 18 June 2013

It's not really "just smartphones", that's too simplistic.

It's that entertainment has changed massively over the last 6-7 years.

7-8 years ago, Facebook was basically just starting. There was no Twitter/Instagram/etc.

If you wanted to watch a movie, you drove to your Blockbuster Video and rented 1 or 2 movies for the week. Netflix mailed you 2-3 movies at a time and that was the new thing.

Today, Netflix/Hulu/etc. give most people a full on video store at their finger tips at any time on top of dramatically expanded cable TV options and PPV ordering.

Having a TiVO was still a relative luxury 8 years ago for most households, today it's basically standard for any cable package, and having it gives you hundreds of hours of programming piled up.

Then you have smartphones and tablets on top of that. People just have way too many entertainment options.

Why invest 30+ hours into a single video game? There's too much to see/do/watch/read these days. Plus diminishing returns ... PS4/XB1/Wii U simply aren't as exciting as 360/PS3/Wii were when they were introduced. You can't reinvent the wheel every time, these are just iterative upgrades with similar types of games, nothing that's a paradigm shift.



crissindahouse on 18 June 2013
AnthonyW86 said:
RolStoppable said:

Didn't it have a sub-20k month before? So no surprise here.

Wii U is bad as well, but it still has a chance to recover.

Overall, the industry is crashing down hard. The upcoming transition is going to be tough, because at this point it looks like only a handful of franchises (CoD, Madden, Assassin's Creed; FIFA in Europe) will be able to pull in good numbers. The X1 is doomed to failure with its price point and the PS4's price only looks good in comparison to the X1. On its own, $399 is expensive too. It looks like being #1 in the console race won't cut it, just like being #1 in the handheld space doesn't mean much. The 3DS is absolutely dominating the PSV, but the numbers are still less than satisfying.

$399 is not expensive, adjusted for inflation it's $299 back in 2000. In other words the same price as the PS2. I think crashing is overreacting, but i don't think Xbox One and PS4 can fill in the gap that Wii>Wii-U is leaving behind.

PS2 did cost 869DM in Germany. That's like 440€ and PS4 will cost 399€ which is already cheaper as PS2 was without talking about inflation.



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Dand on 18 June 2013
AnthonyW86 said:
RolStoppable said:
forest-spirit said:
Vita < 16k!? WTF?

Didn't it have a sub-20k month before? So no surprise here.

Wii U is bad as well, but it still has a chance to recover.

Overall, the industry is crashing down hard. The upcoming transition is going to be tough, because at this point it looks like only a handful of franchises (CoD, Madden, Assassin's Creed; FIFA in Europe) will be able to pull in good numbers. The X1 is doomed to failure with its price point and the PS4's price only looks good in comparison to the X1. On its own, $399 is expensive too. It looks like being #1 in the console race won't cut it, just like being #1 in the handheld space doesn't mean much. The 3DS is absolutely dominating the PSV, but the numbers are still less than satisfying.

$399 is not expensive, adjusted for inflation it's $299 back in 2000. In other words the same price as the PS2. I think crashing is overreacting, but i don't think Xbox One and PS4 can fill in the gap that Wii>Wii-U is leaving behind.

But we are not in 2000, we are in 2013, in the middle of huge economic crisis in Europe and a stagnant USA. Where tablet and smartphone gaming have grown a lot and other kinds of entertainment became more accessible.

I am not saying that the PS4 will fail at $399, just that after the first 3 month it wiil be hard to keep huge numbers.



AnthonyW86 on 18 June 2013
Dand said:
AnthonyW86 said:
RolStoppable said:
forest-spirit said:
Vita < 16k!? WTF?

Didn't it have a sub-20k month before? So no surprise here.

Wii U is bad as well, but it still has a chance to recover.

Overall, the industry is crashing down hard. The upcoming transition is going to be tough, because at this point it looks like only a handful of franchises (CoD, Madden, Assassin's Creed; FIFA in Europe) will be able to pull in good numbers. The X1 is doomed to failure with its price point and the PS4's price only looks good in comparison to the X1. On its own, $399 is expensive too. It looks like being #1 in the console race won't cut it, just like being #1 in the handheld space doesn't mean much. The 3DS is absolutely dominating the PSV, but the numbers are still less than satisfying.

$399 is not expensive, adjusted for inflation it's $299 back in 2000. In other words the same price as the PS2. I think crashing is overreacting, but i don't think Xbox One and PS4 can fill in the gap that Wii>Wii-U is leaving behind.

But we are not in 2000, we are in 2013, in the middle of huge economic crisis in Europe and a stagnant USA. Where tablet and smartphone gaming have grown a lot and other kinds of entertainment became more accessible.

I am not saying that the PS4 will fail at $399, just that after the first 3 month it wiil be hard to keep huge numbers.

A lot of major retailers don't even take pre-orders anymore(or atleast without guarantee). I expect the PS4 to mostly sell out in the first 2-3 months. Crisis or not, people will still buy it. And and PS4 has better economic value than a $399 smartphone or tablet.



Max King of the Wild on 18 June 2013

No new info?



ethomaz on 18 June 2013

DélioPT said:

Was it Creamsugar? I only know one who has access.

No... Creamsugar and CosmicQueso are insiders... CosmicQueso said > 30k and Creamsugar confirmed 36k... the other guy < 34k was just prediction like you said.

Full numbers from GAF (estimates).



ethomaz on 18 June 2013

From sugar...

PSV game this year (LTD)

SC:TIT ~ 28.8K
NGS2P ~ 8.3K
DOA5P ~ 7.5K
MLB13 ~ 38.8K
SS ~ 45.3K