Your predictions are pretty reasonable. For the games to sell more, the Wii U needs to sell more. If it does, I think Mario 3DW and MarioKart 8 could be huge sellers. Zelda U, too, could exceed your expectations if it is a true open-world, large-scale "adult" Zelda. But again, Wii U really needs to pick up.

 I would be amazed if Zelda U exceeds my expectations because that would make it the best selling Zelda game on a single system outselling Ocarina of Time on the N64.

Most of your predictions make sense, surprisingly. I was expecting either ridiculously low or ridiculously high. So you're pretty good. However, there are some they don't make much sense.

Mario Kart 8 - 13 Million to 20 Million. Nintendo won't miss out on bundling this, after seeing how well it can do with a bundle. Mario Kart 7 is also tracking ahead of Mario Kart DS, even though MKDS is seen as a sales juggernaut. (I know MK7 is on a handheld, and MK8 is on Wii U, but MK seems to continually grow over time.)

SSB4 - 6 to 8 Million (Wii U.) With 3DS it'll get over 10 Million, but I don't see Super Smash Bros. 4 getting only 1 Million away from SSBB. That's near impossible.

Pikmin 3 - 1.5 to 3 Million. For the simple reason that this is an oasis in the desert for the Wii U.

But, really, that's not too bad of a prediction list you have there. I only corrected a few.

 Thanks. Yeah. MK8 will have great sales. The thing with Super Smash Bros is that it is known for being a local multiplayer experience. All of them. Smash Bros, Melee and Brawl. They tried to push online with Brawl, but the lag killed it. Who knows. Maybe people will choose the Wii U version because it has better online and graphics while it also offers a better local multiplayer experience? Besides, using the Wavebird controller is the only true way to play Smash Bros. As for Pikmin 3 I do hope it gets pushed up there more than Pikmin 1 and 2. Pikmin 3  also seems more polished.  All Pikmin types are there, new and old enemies are there. I hope the game does well.

Super Smash Bros. 4 will still be known for Local Multiplayer. I just think that SSBB was the all time high for the series. I doubt any SSB game going forward will reach that mark. The reason? SSB has continuously gone up every generation. Melee above 64, Brawl above Melee. But, the reason for these games building up on each other is over. Melee sold more than 64 because on the 64 it was a new IP, and new IP's don't sell as well as existing ones. Brawl sold more than Melee because of the Wii craze. SSB4 is the fourth in the series and has no momentum in the way that these games did. Even though it is, and will be, a strong franchise for Nintendo.

However, this is just my take on the series' sales. I'm not perfectly right, no way... but probably close.

Maybe you are right. The franchise it's still strong and people are willing to buy a Wii U JUST for this game.

I'm not saying it isn't believable, just optimistic. It seems odd to assume that the Wii U will do better than the Gamecube when it has been doing worse. Yes, it is missing some games, but those games didn't give the Gamecube amazing sales. And yes, the Gamecube had to go up against the PS2, but the Wii U has to go against PS360 and PS4/XB1. These are two consoles that are known to consistently outsell the Wii U and two that are unknown quantities. It could go either way right now, but these estimates seem to be the scenario where everything goes right for the Wii U.

nice predictions, but i believe Mario Kart will do much more

How many Wii U s will have to be sold and by what year in order to meet the predictions (or at least in the ballpark re # of games sold) in the original message in this thread (and or the similar predictions made by others)

30 million by year end 2016? I have no idea- the predictions for # of games sold seem high to me but only due to the # of consoles sold to date and what it would take to get the install base up to critical mass w in the next 3+- years

How many Wii U s need to sell between now and Jan 1 2014 for the console to have a reasonable chance of reaching critical mass to sell the # of game sales predicted lifetime in this thread (again the more optimistic predictions)?