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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How much will the Wii U's Holiday Lineup Sell?

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Barozi on 14 June 2013
Salnax said:
As a general response, I'm personally expecting Watch Dogs to be a huge hit, ala Assassin's Creed back in 2007.

I expect the Wii U to sell a total of about 9 or 10 million consoles throughout 2013.

I have little hope for Batman and Assassin's Creed. Their current Wii U iterations spark little hope.

I'm predicting a "Nintendogs" effect for Just Dance 2014 and Wii Party U. They'll do decently, but their time is past.

9-10m is already a huge number. That would imply that it's going to do just as well as PS3 and 360 during the last 3 months of 2012.

Watch Dogs is a new IP. 1.2m on the fourth most (could even be worse but that remains to be seen) important platform until the end of the year is insane.
Assassin's Creed did 2.8m on 360 and 1.8m on PS3 and that's without PC, PS2 or Wii versions.



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HikenNoAce on 14 June 2013
ktay95 said:
lol @ Watch_Dogs, otherwise decent. wouldnt be shocked if Mario sells a bit more LT and not sure how WW HD will do. HD remakes have never sold amazingly but this is possibly the biggest of them all (at least up there with MGS, Halo and FFX/X-2)


The GoW HD collection sold 2.5M.



mjo011 on 14 June 2013

Watch Dogs will sell 100k this year (at most) and 250k when it's all said and done.



IsawYoshi on 14 June 2013
HikenNoAce said:
Their biggest seller would probably be 5M lifetime.

No. It's a Nintendo console. A few Nintendo's first party's sells more than that, and some way more. 



HikenNoAce on 14 June 2013
IsawYoshi said:
HikenNoAce said:
Their biggest seller would probably be 5M lifetime.

No. It's a Nintendo console. A few Nintendo's first party's sells more than that, and some way more. 

Not seeing it this gen.



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osed125 on 14 June 2013

I pretty much agree with everything you posted except for Watch Dogs, too high considering the game is in like 5 different consoles. 

Wii Party U is a little too high, I think this game will sell 2m lifetime.



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IsawYoshi on 15 June 2013
HikenNoAce said:
IsawYoshi said:
HikenNoAce said:
Their biggest seller would probably be 5M lifetime.

No. It's a Nintendo console. A few Nintendo's first party's sells more than that, and some way more. 

Not seeing it this gen.

4/11 of all gamecube owners owned smash bros, and the same applied to Mario Kart. Both brands have grown since then. Nintendo wouldn't need to sell more than 15 mill. consoles to sell at least one 5 million game in it's lifetime. And it will.

 



Screamapillar on 15 June 2013
Salnax said:
When Watch Dogs becomes the biggest new franchise of the 8th gen, you'll all come to respect and fear me!

;-p


Right, but not necessarily on Wii U, though.  When was the last time a mature-themed third-party multiplatform game sold 4 or 5 million on a Nintendo platform?

Absolutely not going to happen.

BUT:

I think Mario 3D World is spot-on, but DKC is too high.  3D World will surely hit 2.5 by end of year, but DKC won't do nearly as well as the Wii version.  Install base is like, 72 million fewer consoles than the Wii when DKCR released in November 2010.  Wii U probably won't even be at 7 million pre- Thanksgiving.

Also, forgive me if you said this is in your OP and I'm just not seeing it, but are we talking US or Global sales?  I'm talking US.

If you account for global sales, many of these games will do far better than any of our predictions.  Home consoles have much higher attach rates of software than handhelds.  I think Wind Waker HD is going to blow the pants off of most people's predictions, and in turn, it's going to be the surprise hit of the holidays before 3D World launches in December, just a couple weeks before Christmas. 

I can't stress this enough, (and I believe pre-order numbers will back me up closer to October), Wind Waker HD for Wii U is going to do very well this year.  Huge audience for that game in the US.



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Pavolink on 15 June 2013

Not much, imo. But next year will be maybe the biggest year for the console.



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kopstudent89 on 15 June 2013

Alright I'll do mine:

Super Mario 3D World - 2.5 million in 2013, 7 to 8 million lifetime (It could do way more since 2D MArio hasn't kicked off, or way less cause of fans backlash at this 3D effort)
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze - 1.2 million in 2013, 3 million lifetime
Wii Party U - 1.7 million in 2013, 3.5 million lifetime
Watch Dogs - 0.3 million in 2013, 0.6 million lifetime
Wind Waker HD - 1.3 million in 2013, 2 million lifetime
Sonic: Lost World - 0.6 million in 2013, 1.5 million lifetime
Just Dance 2014 - 0.5 million in 2013, 1 million lifetime
The Wonderful 101 - 0.4 million in 2013, 0.8-1 million lifetime
Skylanders Swap Force - 0.2 million in 2013, 0.4 million lifetime
Call of Duty Ghosts - 0.4 million in 2013, 0.7 million lifetime
Rayman Legends - 0.3 million in 2013, 0.5 million lifetime
Batman Arkham Origins - 0.3 million in 2013, 0.5 million lifetime
Assassin's Creed 4 - 0.4 million in 2013, 0.7 million lifetime

That said if the Wii U does do well in the holidays, then games early in a console life tend to have good legs. Of course if it doesn't then the opposite happens. I still think it's a decent holiday lineup for the Wii U and it should do well imo.