Impossible.

Sales will fall off the PS3 over the next 18 months = not a chance in buggery of it happening...

I suspect you're just collecting "points" here though :p

I fail to see why you guys are so convinced that PS3 will still be manufactured at the end of the decade. PS2 was manufactured for 12 years. But unlike PS3, Sony made a LOT of money from that console. If PS4 truly is a financial success from launch, as Sony claims it will be, why would they want to keep promoting an older console that's more expensive to make?

My theory is that PS2 sold so well at the beginning of the PS3 is because the PS3 was too expensive and didn't had much software, the PS2 continue to had support during the first year of the PS3 on the market. If the PS3 were a success from the beginning the scenario would have been different. The PS2 start losing support when the PS3 pick up. (this is all without counting the emerging markets)

Now having said that I think it will be like this:

1) If the PS4 is a huge success from the beginning it means devs will be focusing on that console, and the PS3 will be for shovelware only (until it eventually dies). The PS3 will dry pretty quickly and thus not passing the Wii.

2) If the PS4 suffers in sales at the beginning it mean devs will still be focusing on the PS3 until the PS4 picks up. This will mean the PS3 will have (most likely) a whole year and half (heck maybe even more time) of complete support and thus more sales. In this case the PS3 will indeed pass the Wii.

Anyway those are my two cents. 

just came here for the lulz

i think 2018, neither will pass ps1.

march 2014:
wii: 102
ps3: 86

march 2015:
wii: 103 (discontonued)
ps3: 93

march 2016:
wii: 103
ps3: 98

march 2017:
wii: 103
ps3: 101

march 2018:
wii: 103
ps3: 103 (discontinued)

My guess (which is all any of us can do) is that it won't. The PS3 won't have the legs the PS2 did, as it wasn't able to achieve that dominant position in the market. This means that the 360 will remain a somewhat viable alternative for consumers looking to adopt late for a "budget" console.

I have no doubt the PS3 will remain on the market for a while, but the sales will dwindle down too much for it to pass the Wii, IMO.

It honestly depends on 1 thing and 1 thing only.

China. Calling it now, if China opens by late 2014 then yeah. The rest of the developing markets are too small (yes even Brazil)

PS3 won't have the same legs as PS2, it's impossible to have em.

NUNCA

PS2 had about 33% of its sales after PS3 came out. It's been a longer gen so I'll say PS3 gets 25% of its sales as a legacy system (still pretty high only cause it's still $250 so plenty of room for price cuts to spur sales).

This. The ps3 was also too expensive for many so we didn't see many early adopters. It will change this gen. 10 year plan is good and all but over 100 million? Not likely.