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My guess (which is all any of us can do) is that it won't. The PS3 won't have the legs the PS2 did, as it wasn't able to achieve that dominant position in the market. This means that the 360 will remain a somewhat viable alternative for consumers looking to adopt late for a "budget" console.

I have no doubt the PS3 will remain on the market for a while, but the sales will dwindle down too much for it to pass the Wii, IMO.