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Forums - Sales - A Few Comments on the Recent Adjustments

NintendoPie said:

Question, though: When (if at all possible) do you think VGC will be able to track Downloaded games?


I have asked this in the past and as of right now I think it is impossible.  




       

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outlawauron said:
Michael-5 said:

So then ioi didn't have PSP sales tracked accuratly in Europe like he just claimed. LOL.

Well at least it's fixed now, and PS3 didn't top 360 in an adjustment.

You realize there's a lot more to Europe than the countries he listed. Especially considering the difficulty of predicting markets that are so dissimilar.

Yea, but UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Benelux, make up a large portion of Europe. I can't imagine Ukraine, Russia, Poland, Serbia, Bosnia, Romania, Greece, etc buying 15-20x as many PSP's as the main European countries. Plus why is only PSP adjusted up in these regions?

Remember PSP in Europe before this adjustment was only 1.5k weekly, now it's over 20k weekly.

Still, whatever, glad it's been adjusted now. I'm really shocked at how well PSP is doing, I haven't been looking at outside sources much, and I was really happy to see GBA edge out PSP before. Guess not anymore, Sony products always do well after the gen in over in South America, Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. I mean look how long the tails are for PS1 and PS2's annual sales!



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JustThatGamer said:
Michael-5 said:

It's funny because I estimated PS2's total at 157.38 million as of January 1st 2013, and you now have it at 157.68 million. I was shocked because I might have had the exact same number as you had I continued estimating.

Thanks for the Adjustment, where exactly are PSP's sales coming from? I understand PSP gets a lot of sales from Asia, but wouldn't there be a lot of support in South America? Where do you track South America sales now, In the same place as Europe? Wasn't South America included in "America's" before?

---

Also I noticed that you only adjusted hardware, and some software. A lot of people claim God of War 3's sales are about 1 million undertracked. I forget their arguement, but they say that the game opened up to more sales then VGC has tracked, and it's unlikely for sales to have just stopped to meet VGC numbers.


As everyone's saying, thanks for the adjustments ioi! Nice to see an effort to make tracking more accurate.

And since you brought it up Michael-5, here's a thread I made almost a year ago regarding God of War 3's sales: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=144437 (Just updated it recently). And according to NPD it sold 1.1m in the US during its first 4 weeks vs. 1.04K Vgchartz estimated, not a huge difference until you consider bundled sales were tracked separately by NPD meaning it could have really been at 1.2m in total which would be a fairly significant difference.

So then are God of War 3's sales accurate? I remember always seeing people make comments to this game in specific.



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Oh, about PS1, why does VGC have it at 104.25 million?

You used to have it at 102.49 million, and Wikipedia still says 102.49 million. So I'm pretty sure this is an error.

----

Also, you're missing a lot of consoles, or have them at 0 hardware sales. From my own threads, here is a list of consoles you don't have tracked with WW sales.

 

18 – 13.00 million - Sega Master System (October 1986)
20 – 10.00 million - Nippon Electric Company TurboGrafx-16 (August 29th, 1989)
23 – 6.00 million - Coleco ColecoVision (August 1982)
24 – 6.00 million - Sega CD (October 15th 1992)

26 – 3.00 million – Color TV Game (1977)
26 – 3.00 million - Mattel Intellivision (1980)
26 – 3.00 million - Nokia N-Gage (October 7th, 2003)

30 – 2.00 million - Panasonic 3DO Interactive Multiplayer (September 1993)
30 – 2.00 million - SNK Neo-Geo Pocket, and Neo-Geo Pocket Colour (1998)
32 – 1.50 million - Nippon Electric Company TurboExpress (1990)

33 - 1.12 million – Namco Bandai WonderSwan (1999)
34 – 1.00 million - Sega Nomad (October 1995)
35 - 0.77 million - Nintendo Virtual Boy (August 14th 1995)
36 - 0.57 million - Phillips CDi (1991)
37 - 0.50 million - Atari Lynx (September 1989)
38 - 0.30 million - Tiger Electronics Game.com (September 1997)
39 - 0.25 million - Atari Jaguar (November 18th 1993)
40 - 0.20 million - Sega 32X (November 1994)
41 - 0.042 million - Apple Pippin (1995)
42 - 0.025 million - Tiger Telematics Gizmondo (March 19th 1995)
43 - 0.015 million - Nintendo 64 Disk Drive (December 1st 1999- Japan Only)

Most info is obtained from wikipedia.

ioi said:
 VGChartz has been a huge part of my life for nearly 8 years now, that isn't about to change anytime soon.

This sounds like how someone would describe their wife. What does she think of all this? lol



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Nice to see some adjustments! But with nextgen incoming will vgchartz start tracking digital downloads? It will be needed to be accurate.



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Good news



Michael-5 said:
outlawauron said:
Michael-5 said:

So then ioi didn't have PSP sales tracked accuratly in Europe like he just claimed. LOL.

Well at least it's fixed now, and PS3 didn't top 360 in an adjustment.

You realize there's a lot more to Europe than the countries he listed. Especially considering the difficulty of predicting markets that are so dissimilar.

Yea, but UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Benelux, make up a large portion of Europe. I can't imagine Ukraine, Russia, Poland, Serbia, Bosnia, Romania, Greece, etc buying 15-20x as many PSP's as the main European countries. Plus why is only PSP adjusted up in these regions?

Remember PSP in Europe before this adjustment was only 1.5k weekly, now it's over 20k weekly.

Still, whatever, glad it's been adjusted now. I'm really shocked at how well PSP is doing, I haven't been looking at outside sources much, and I was really happy to see GBA edge out PSP before. Guess not anymore, Sony products always do well after the gen in over in South America, Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. I mean look how long the tails are for PS1 and PS2's annual sales!

In Poland PS3 and PSP sells 3 - 4 x better than all others. Video console = Playstation. In the biggest Polish console forum 99% are Playstation 3/PSP/Vita owners/fans. Only 3 people have got Nintendo DS/ Wii ( no one has Wii U btw )



ioi said:

The basic reasoning behind the recent hardware adjustment is that our numbers are pretty good for the USA, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Benelux, Australia and Japan regions. The data for those regions hasn't seen any major adjustments and our numbers are very much in line with any independent data in those regions (within say 5%).

It is the remaining regions that have seen the bulk of the adjustments - Latin America, the rest of Europe, Russia, Asia Pacific and Africa - where we essentially have to extrapolate and "guess" the sales based on past trends. When manufacturers release data and we are 2-3m out then it is clear that we are severely under-tracking sales in these regions so we adjust to the best our our judgement to try to bring the discrepancies down to an acceptable level to represent likely units in stock.

Data for the main tracked regions listed above covers about 85-90% of the total market, but in some cases (PSP and PS2 being the most extreme), these regions actually only account for 10-20% of the current weekly totals - the majority of units for these platforms are being sold in the upcoming and developing markets, which is why our normal extrapolation formulas fall down. We know that the tracked regions only account for a minority of the sales but trying to judge how small that minority is can lead to massive swings in the extrapolated numbers so we tend to side with caution and go with the lowest estimate.

It is my goal this year to improve tracking in these regions - especially in the major AP countries like Hong Kong, Singapore, China but also in Eastern Europe and the Middle East where there are significant (i.e millions) of PSPs. PS2s. PS3s and to a lesser extent 360s being sold that we aren't able to track.

If people want to help, the best thing you can do is keep posting data that gets released for these "developing" regions. The more data we have the better we can extrapolate and estimate for the regions that we have missing.

As ever, thanks for your patience and understanding.

We love you ioi!!!!!!!!!



Bet reminder: I bet with Tboned51 that Splatoon won't reach the 1 million shipped mark by the end of 2015. I win if he loses and I lose if I lost.

Thanks for the update, good luck with future tracking in those tough areas.



pezus said:
Michael-5 said:
trunkswd said:
Software figures for a few games should also be fixed, ie Gran Tursimo 5. But remember that VGC doesn't track digital sales, only retail sales.

Yea, Polyphony Digital say 10.66 million on their website including digital sales.

How can GT5P sell 1 million digital copies, but GT5 sell only 250k? It makes no sense.

http://www.polyphony.co.jp/english/list.html

GT5 isn't available digitally.

Oh. Well......

Then VGC seems to be tracking it well. Still....

My prediction for not selling 10 million by 2013 should still be just valid. 10.66 million is the number shipped as of March 31st 2013. VGC have GT5 at 10.4 sold as of last week, and 600k was in 2013. So I can still make some accurate predictions.



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