By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - COMG! Japan Pre-order Chart Thread - Daily updates!

Ryng on 06 December 2018

I wanna Smash to finish above Splatoon 2.

Cmon get me that 36 points today! :D



Around the Network
Boutros on 06 December 2018

 



ZODIARKrebirth on 06 December 2018

thought i would never see the normal version of resident evil and wish smash good first week



rodea_sky_soldier on 06 December 2018

Smashing! Go Go DQB2 for Switch!!



tbone51 on 06 December 2018

Noooooooooooooooooo!

Well will it beat ssb3ds fw points? Find out soon



Around the Network
Jranation on 06 December 2018

Fantastic end for Smash # COMG!



Pocky Lover Boy! 

Ryng on 06 December 2018

Smash Ultimate first week sales:

1:1000 ratio = 935.000
1:1100 ratio = 1.028.500
1:1200 ratio = 1.122.000
1:1300 ratio = 1.215.500
1:1400 ratio = 1.309.000
1:1500 ratio = 1.402.500
1:1600 ratio = 1.496.000
1:1700 ratio = 1.589.500
1:1800 ratio = 1.683.000
1:1900 ratio = 1.776.500
1:2000 ratio = 1.870.000



HylianSwordsman on 06 December 2018

Ah well. Smash finished a very close 2nd. Now just don't get a terrible ratio Smash. It would only take a typical Switch ratio to produce some amazing numbers. If I weren't looking at ratios and had no COMG data to go off of, I would say kopstudent's 800k estimate sounds right for a Switch game in Japan based on previous opening sales for various Switch titles, and for a Smash game in general in the region. Would still make it the biggest opening for a Switch game so far. If there were any time for a low outlier ratio to appear, it would be Smash. But if it doesn't, and the ratio is in line with the trend, the sales will be huge!

And it's not that crazy of an attach rate if it does. By Smash's release, Japan will likely have at least 6 million Switches in consumer hands. Selling 800k would be a 13.3% attach rate, 1.5 million a 25% attach rate, and 2 million a 33.3% attach rate. Right now based on VGChartz data as of October 28th in Japan, Splatoon 2 is at a 53.4% attach rate, SMO is at 36.6%, MK8D is at 35.9%, and Zelda is at 22.1%. In their first week, Splatoon 2 had a 56.25% attach rate, SMO had 25.3%, MK8D had 36.6%, and Zelda had 56.7%. I personally don't think Smash is going to do much worse than those titles. It'll be closer to them than the next highest rate, Kirby with its 12.25% current and 5.76% FW rates. Especially since this is pretty close to peak holiday sales, I would think 1.2 million, a 20% attach rate, would be the low end for a first week rate. Of course, once you count digital, all these attach rates go up. So while 800k would be impressive, it would actually be a pretty weak attach ratio for Smash. One that could improve quickly, especially during a holiday, but still unusually low for a major title that gets compared to Mario Kart in terms of system selling potential. No matter how you slice it, 1.5 million really isn't that crazy, and again, that's not counting digital.

It's still hard to believe it could really happen though, so I'll temper my expectations and expect only disappointment until I actually see the numbers.



XD84 on 07 December 2018
  Days SSB Ultimate SSB 3DS SSB Wii U SSB 4 all
21 147 53 15 17 32
20 140 110 15 19 34
19 133 137 20 20 40
18 126 155 21 21 42
17 119 181 21 21 42
16 112 208 23 22 45
15 105 226 28 23 51
14 98 238 30 25 55
13 91 256 45 26 71
12 84 272 86 27 113
11 77 294 143 25 168
10 70 322 179 25 204
9 63 340 216 26 242
8 56 352 264 31 295
7 49 367 307 31 338
6 42 376 359 49 408
5 35 394 419 76 495
4 28 451 509 102 611
3 21 527 584 117 701
2 14 641 650 155 805
1 7 752 798 211 1009
  6 783 854 229 1083
  5 818 909 230 1139
  4 838 940 234 1174
  3 870 982 242 1224
  2 906 1018 245 1263
  1 935 1066 251 1317
Launch Week     1090 278 1368


kopstudent89 on 07 December 2018
HylianSwordsman said:
Ah well. Smash finished a very close 2nd. Now just don't get a terrible ratio Smash. It would only take a typical Switch ratio to produce some amazing numbers. If I weren't looking at ratios and had no COMG data to go off of, I would say kopstudent's 800k estimate sounds right for a Switch game in Japan based on previous opening sales for various Switch titles, and for a Smash game in general in the region. Would still make it the biggest opening for a Switch game so far. If there were any time for a low outlier ratio to appear, it would be Smash. But if it doesn't, and the ratio is in line with the trend, the sales will be huge!

And it's not that crazy of an attach rate if it does. By Smash's release, Japan will likely have at least 6 million Switches in consumer hands. Selling 800k would be a 13.3% attach rate, 1.5 million a 25% attach rate, and 2 million a 33.3% attach rate. Right now based on VGChartz data as of October 28th in Japan, Splatoon 2 is at a 53.4% attach rate, SMO is at 36.6%, MK8D is at 35.9%, and Zelda is at 22.1%. In their first week, Splatoon 2 had a 56.25% attach rate, SMO had 25.3%, MK8D had 36.6%, and Zelda had 56.7%. I personally don't think Smash is going to do much worse than those titles. It'll be closer to them than the next highest rate, Kirby with its 12.25% current and 5.76% FW rates. Especially since this is pretty close to peak holiday sales, I would think 1.2 million, a 20% attach rate, would be the low end for a first week rate. Of course, once you count digital, all these attach rates go up. So while 800k would be impressive, it would actually be a pretty weak attach ratio for Smash. One that could improve quickly, especially during a holiday, but still unusually low for a major title that gets compared to Mario Kart in terms of system selling potential. No matter how you slice it, 1.5 million really isn't that crazy, and again, that's not counting digital.

It's still hard to believe it could really happen though, so I'll temper my expectations and expect only disappointment until I actually see the numbers.

Trust me I'd be happy to be wrong   I just think expectations are a bit too high. 800k in December would be huge as you still have the holidays to sell like crazy. For example, NSMB Wii did 943k FW (according to VGC) and ended up selling 2.7m for that month alone. Smash has a shot at 2 million for the month and that should not be undestimated, for comparison sales LTD:

Brawl: 2.67m

Smash 3DS: 2.5 m

Smash 64: 1.97m

Mele: 1.39m

 

Smash Switch has a shot at the top of that list