The bar is the Bravely Default series, which Octopath Traveler is very much a spiritual successor to. While it may not hit the lifetime of the first game, 100k+ FW is near guaranteed.

hope it will get this sales, as the like from i have seen from this game til now, it deserves it

Is there a proven pattern of success in Japan of third-party Switch games launching at 100k+ copies sold the first week in Japan? If I have missed such circumstances I'd like to know it.

If this is directed at me, it's more an expectation for the type of game it is, its production value, and who's making it. It's not a tiny game. Considering that Bravely Default launched at 150k FW, 100k is not a high goal.

I was just curious if there has been a third party that debuted at 100k+ or not yet.  It amuses me just how much Nintendo first party titles sell in comparison to third party titles. Hope Octopath can do it. It seems to be struggling a bit in COMG thus far but there is still a lot of time to improve.

Using a recent example, considering snack world an old port of a 3DS game is well on it's way to 100k and with legs that can lead it to outselling Level 5's AAA Ni No Kuni II on PS4 in Japan I'd say 3rd party sales are doing just fine right now and are only going to get better.

When a brand new 3rd party title built from the ground up releases for Switch (even a semi-low/medium production value title like Octopath Traveller). I have no reason to see why it wouldn't do good numbers in Japan if its a good game suited to their tastes.

Also it's 66 days from release on Comg, a reminder it's doing better than what Splatoon (ok yes a very extreme example) did with only 11 days to go on Comg. So I wouldn't use it as such a high indicator especially for a new IP this far out from release. Actually I'd be more impressed it showed up this early on even with only 7pts.

PS4 Persona Dancing has almost overtaken the Vita version! Who will be the victor in the end?

Still no points for Octopath Traveler, yawn.

Oh snap! Persona PS4 is right behind Vita.