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Forums - Sales - Will the PS4 outsell the XBox One and WiiU?

Zero999 on 07 May 2013
AnthonyW86 said:

Sorry to interfere here but that's simply not true . Millions and millions of people spend $400 to $600 dollars on a new smartphone every year, and these device don't last nearly as long as a PS4 and 720. The same goes for many other media device like tablets, and they usually only offer very limited improvements over the previous models. If any the fact that this gen has gone on much longer than ever before will cause the PS4 and 720 to sell faster then other generations, people have been waiting for them longer and have seen that a $400 device can last them up to 7-8 years. And with all the other added media features you are getting more bang for the buck then ever before.

the amount of money people spend on OTHER devices is irrelevant since we are talking about video games here. 299 is mass market price, 399 is already too much and over 400 is WAY too much.



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Tachikoma on 07 May 2013
Zero999 said:
AnthonyW86 said:

Sorry to interfere here but that's simply not true . Millions and millions of people spend $400 to $600 dollars on a new smartphone every year, and these device don't last nearly as long as a PS4 and 720. The same goes for many other media device like tablets, and they usually only offer very limited improvements over the previous models. If any the fact that this gen has gone on much longer than ever before will cause the PS4 and 720 to sell faster then other generations, people have been waiting for them longer and have seen that a $400 device can last them up to 7-8 years. And with all the other added media features you are getting more bang for the buck then ever before.

the amount of money people spend on OTHER devices is irrelevant since we are talking about video games here. 299 is mass market price, 399 is already too much and over 400 is WAY too much.

Yeah because when people buy a console they don't spend a penny more ever again right? ... all those free games and stuff..



g911turbo on 07 May 2013
Tachikoma said:
Zero999 said:
AnthonyW86 said:

Sorry to interfere here but that's simply not true . Millions and millions of people spend $400 to $600 dollars on a new smartphone every year, and these device don't last nearly as long as a PS4 and 720. The same goes for many other media device like tablets, and they usually only offer very limited improvements over the previous models. If any the fact that this gen has gone on much longer than ever before will cause the PS4 and 720 to sell faster then other generations, people have been waiting for them longer and have seen that a $400 device can last them up to 7-8 years. And with all the other added media features you are getting more bang for the buck then ever before.

the amount of money people spend on OTHER devices is irrelevant since we are talking about video games here. 299 is mass market price, 399 is already too much and over 400 is WAY too much.

Yeah because when people buy a console they don't spend a penny more ever again right? ... all those free games and stuff..

Not sure if you can define what EXACTLY is too much or not, a little hard to say.  If either company had that crystal ball this conversation would be over...  So I disagree with Zero there.  It all depends on what the console offers and how much value that is perceived at by the public.  More on that below.

I will however agree with Zero in that the CELL market is a bad comparison. 

Cell phones are more often than not bought on contract, and they are people's life blood at this poing.  You're always using it for work or play.  Calls, texting, internet surfing including facebook, etc.  People cannot live without a cell phone it seems, yet you could easily live without a game system (well maybe some of you would "die" lol).

That being said, here is what it comes down to.  Sony will attempt to get mainstream buyers to notice the difference between PS4 and PS3 - things like on screen graphics and connectivity, etc.  Nintendo will attempt to get mainstream buyers to notice the difference between Wii and Wii U (where Nintendo has done a poor job of so far) in terms of ways to play (tablet controller, etc.)

What is the tablet controller worth to people?  That will define what number the Wii U can sell at and be successful.  So far 300-350 has been a bit much given the lack of games, and specificlly lack of games utilizing the controller.

What are updated graphics worth on the PS4?  so on... 

 

 

Also, not sure what the price of games has to do with the cost of a console... 



snowdog on 07 May 2013
Tachikoma said:
snowdog said:
What's most important though is that the Wii U could be the go-to place for indie developers thanks to Nintendo giving tens of thousands of pounds worth of software and middleware free with each dev kit, including Greenhill's MULTI IDE, Autodesk middleware, Havok middleware and a licence for Unity 4.

Nobody has ever done that before?, uh.. hate to break it to you but back when i first started working as a developer, the Katana devkit we had was given to use for free from Sega, Sony gave away Yaroze to hundreds of people who initially bought it by never actually cashing the cheques for the hardware, as well as giving hundreds of units to universities - Sony have repeated this with the Orbis development kits by basically providing the SDK and development hardware to smaller development teams and indie developers for free to create software on, with includes extensive software and development libraries, Microsoft also provides an extensive software library to development teams free of charge.

Also, Nintendo do provide these tools, but selective to the project, they don't just say "heres a bunch of software and licenses you might not even use".

Rose tinted glasses?, Yup.



Nothing rose-tinted here mate. Nintendo are supplying licences for all of that software and middleware to all developers as far as I'm aware regardless of what project they're working on. That's the whole point of them doing it, they're giving developers the tools to handle whatever project they need either current or in the future. The most important of which is MULTI, although that deal is a relatively later addition.



Max King of the Wild on 07 May 2013

No one has ever done that before because A. Nintendo has absolutely no relationship with indie devs unlike Sony and MS and B. Nintendo needs to gain those developers



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Zero999 on 07 May 2013
g911turbo said:

Not sure if you can define what EXACTLY is too much or not, a little hard to say.  If either company had that crystal ball this conversation would be over...  So I disagree with Zero there.  It all depends on what the console offers and how much value that is perceived at by the public.  More on that below.

I will however agree with Zero in that the CELL market is a bad comparison. 

Cell phones are more often than not bought on contract, and they are people's life blood at this poing.  You're always using it for work or play.  Calls, texting, internet surfing including facebook, etc.  People cannot live without a cell phone it seems, yet you could easily live without a game system (well maybe some of you would "die" lol).

That being said, here is what it comes down to.  Sony will attempt to get mainstream buyers to notice the difference between PS4 and PS3 - things like on screen graphics and connectivity, etc.  Nintendo will attempt to get mainstream buyers to notice the difference between Wii and Wii U (where Nintendo has done a poor job of so far) in terms of ways to play (tablet controller, etc.)

What is the tablet controller worth to people?  That will define what number the Wii U can sell at and be successful.  So far 300-350 has been a bit much given the lack of games, and specificlly lack of games utilizing the controller.

What are updated graphics worth on the PS4?  so on... 

 

 

Also, not sure what the price of games has to do with the cost of a console... 

I agree that value is important, hell, the wii u deluxe sells more even though it's more expensive. however there's a price limit people are willing to pay for a console. just look at 3ds and vita, while it is safe to assume both would have sold better at $250 if they had more games (value) at the time, consumers showed they aren't willing to pay $250 on a handheld console. 3ds price cut raised sales a lot and kept it stable untill mario 3d land released. this means the acceptable launch price for handhelds is $199 tops.

on the home consoles side, wii u is performing well for it's price and lack of games, with the small spikes at releases like lego city showing people just want the big games to come before buying it. the problem is that 399 for home consoles seems pretty close to the 250 on the handheld side. if ps4/next box release at that price with must have exclusives, they may sell good but not incredible. if they release at 450+ or at 399 without must have titles, i can see both strugling after the holydays, just like wii u is doing now.



goopy20 on 07 May 2013
snowdog said:
goopy20 said:
snowdog said:
G911turbo brings up a VERY important point again that I raised in my original post in this thread. Both the PS4 and 720 are going to struggle to sell worse than the Wii U has done during the launch window due to much higher price points.

The latest rumour, which sounds credible, is that the 720 is going to have 2 SKUs - one priced at $299.99 with a 2 year subscription commitment to Live Gold for $15 per month so you're looking at $660 in total and the second SKU being $499.99 without the Live Gold commitment so you'll need to add the Live Gold subscription, which you should be able to pick up much cheaper.

Then you've got Sony continuing to ignore what made the PS2 so successful and what's made the PS3, PSP and Vita less successful. They've gone for an expensive and powerful box again - a console with 8GB of GDDR5 and a GPU pushing 1.8TFlops isn't going to be cheap before you even start to think about the controller and dual cameras in the camera bar. We'll probably be looking at $499.99 for the PS4 too.

And if that wasn't enough to cause them both problems given the current financial climate, both consoles are going to be supply constrained even if they do sell.

And then you've got the possibility of the rumours of always online and no used games for the 720 being true which I know, going by the reactions on various other forums I frequent, is going to be a dealbreaker for a fair few people.

Lets just assume the engineers at Sony know what the hell they are doing when they chose to stuff 8 gigs of very expensive ram in there. Keep in mind the ps4 uses a new type of APU that takes the unified ram priciple to a whole new level.



You could say the same thing about the hardware in the PS3, PSP and Vita as I've already mentioned. It's very rare for the most powerful console to win a generation, because said consoles tend to have a lower adoption rate due to a higher retail price compared to its less powerful competition. I just can't understand Sony's thinking when planning these things tbh. There's absolutely no sense in it.

Like I've said previously, if Nintendo cut the price of the Wii U in October by $50 and 3D Mario and Mario Kart 8 are released at the same time we could be looking at the Basic SKU being half the price of the PS4 and 720. With the far superior stable of system selling software compared to both Sony and especially Microsoft I can't see the PS4 and 720 catching up let alone overtaking the Wii U's sales.

You can't just say expensive hardware never wins a console generation, the most defining factor is the support a console gets. Sony has never had this problem and totally dominated for 2 console generations. Sure, this gen they got cocky and messed up when they tried to force developers to sweat bullets in order to make the cell work, but they probably didn't expect the 360 to take off the way it did, else we would have seen a lot more 20 gig games this gen.

Still, they managed to get their shit together and played catch-up with MS. Sony has a lot of momentum going right now and they seems to have learned their lesson. The ps4 has pretty awesome hardware, the support of every major developer on the planet combined with the biggest stable of 1st party developers and even if it's to expensive at launch then it will probably cost 299,- a year later.



g911turbo on 07 May 2013
goopy20 said:
snowdog said:
goopy20 said:
snowdog said:
G911turbo brings up a VERY important point again that I raised in my original post in this thread. Both the PS4 and 720 are going to struggle to sell worse than the Wii U has done during the launch window due to much higher price points.

The latest rumour, which sounds credible, is that the 720 is going to have 2 SKUs - one priced at $299.99 with a 2 year subscription commitment to Live Gold for $15 per month so you're looking at $660 in total and the second SKU being $499.99 without the Live Gold commitment so you'll need to add the Live Gold subscription, which you should be able to pick up much cheaper.

Then you've got Sony continuing to ignore what made the PS2 so successful and what's made the PS3, PSP and Vita less successful. They've gone for an expensive and powerful box again - a console with 8GB of GDDR5 and a GPU pushing 1.8TFlops isn't going to be cheap before you even start to think about the controller and dual cameras in the camera bar. We'll probably be looking at $499.99 for the PS4 too.

And if that wasn't enough to cause them both problems given the current financial climate, both consoles are going to be supply constrained even if they do sell.

And then you've got the possibility of the rumours of always online and no used games for the 720 being true which I know, going by the reactions on various other forums I frequent, is going to be a dealbreaker for a fair few people.

Lets just assume the engineers at Sony know what the hell they are doing when they chose to stuff 8 gigs of very expensive ram in there. Keep in mind the ps4 uses a new type of APU that takes the unified ram priciple to a whole new level.



You could say the same thing about the hardware in the PS3, PSP and Vita as I've already mentioned. It's very rare for the most powerful console to win a generation, because said consoles tend to have a lower adoption rate due to a higher retail price compared to its less powerful competition. I just can't understand Sony's thinking when planning these things tbh. There's absolutely no sense in it.

Like I've said previously, if Nintendo cut the price of the Wii U in October by $50 and 3D Mario and Mario Kart 8 are released at the same time we could be looking at the Basic SKU being half the price of the PS4 and 720. With the far superior stable of system selling software compared to both Sony and especially Microsoft I can't see the PS4 and 720 catching up let alone overtaking the Wii U's sales.

You can't just say expensive hardware never wins a console generation, the most defining factor is the support a console gets. Sony has never had this problem and totally dominated for 2 console generations. Sure, this gen they got cocky and messed up when they tried to force developers to sweat bullets in order to make the cell work, but they probably didn't expect the 360 to take off the way it did, else we would have seen a lot more 20 gig games this gen.

Still, they managed to get their shit together and played catch-up with MS. Sony has a lot of momentum going right now and they seems to have learned their lesson. The ps4 has pretty awesome hardware, the support of every major developer on the planet combined with the biggest stable of 1st party developers and even if it's to expensive at launch then it will probably cost 299,- a year later.


That's when I figure I'll jump in. Once the console is below 300 and or the games build up. 



Zero999 on 07 May 2013
goopy20 said:
snowdog said:
goopy20 said:
snowdog said:
G911turbo brings up a VERY important point again that I raised in my original post in this thread. Both the PS4 and 720 are going to struggle to sell worse than the Wii U has done during the launch window due to much higher price points.

The latest rumour, which sounds credible, is that the 720 is going to have 2 SKUs - one priced at $299.99 with a 2 year subscription commitment to Live Gold for $15 per month so you're looking at $660 in total and the second SKU being $499.99 without the Live Gold commitment so you'll need to add the Live Gold subscription, which you should be able to pick up much cheaper.

Then you've got Sony continuing to ignore what made the PS2 so successful and what's made the PS3, PSP and Vita less successful. They've gone for an expensive and powerful box again - a console with 8GB of GDDR5 and a GPU pushing 1.8TFlops isn't going to be cheap before you even start to think about the controller and dual cameras in the camera bar. We'll probably be looking at $499.99 for the PS4 too.

And if that wasn't enough to cause them both problems given the current financial climate, both consoles are going to be supply constrained even if they do sell.

And then you've got the possibility of the rumours of always online and no used games for the 720 being true which I know, going by the reactions on various other forums I frequent, is going to be a dealbreaker for a fair few people.

Lets just assume the engineers at Sony know what the hell they are doing when they chose to stuff 8 gigs of very expensive ram in there. Keep in mind the ps4 uses a new type of APU that takes the unified ram priciple to a whole new level.



You could say the same thing about the hardware in the PS3, PSP and Vita as I've already mentioned. It's very rare for the most powerful console to win a generation, because said consoles tend to have a lower adoption rate due to a higher retail price compared to its less powerful competition. I just can't understand Sony's thinking when planning these things tbh. There's absolutely no sense in it.

Like I've said previously, if Nintendo cut the price of the Wii U in October by $50 and 3D Mario and Mario Kart 8 are released at the same time we could be looking at the Basic SKU being half the price of the PS4 and 720. With the far superior stable of system selling software compared to both Sony and especially Microsoft I can't see the PS4 and 720 catching up let alone overtaking the Wii U's sales.

You can't just say expensive hardware never wins a console generation, the most defining factor is the support a console gets. Sony has never had this problem and totally dominated for 2 console generations. Sure, this gen they got cocky and messed up when they tried to force developers to sweat bullets in order to make the cell work, but they probably didn't expect the 360 to take off the way it did, else we would have seen a lot more 20 gig games this gen.

Still, they managed to get their shit together and played catch-up with MS. Sony has a lot of momentum going right now and they seems to have learned their lesson. The ps4 has pretty awesome hardware, the support of every major developer on the planet combined with the biggest stable of 1st party developers and even if it's to expensive at launch then it will probably cost 299,- a year later.

vita is still 250 on 2 of the 3 regions and it's been 1 and a half year. if ps4 releases for 399, wich i doubt, it will be taking losses for sure so don't expect more than a 50 dollar price cut in one year.



snowdog on 07 May 2013

That's why I said 'very rarely'. At no point did I say that was set in stone. As for third party support you've got to remember that the PS3 started with great third party support in the beginning when everyone in the industry (including my good self) assumed that the PS3 would emulate the success of the PS2. What happened..? It sold reasonably well and then tanked going into the launch window causing titles to be either canned or transferred to other platforms. Sony still haven't recovered from losing the Monster Hunter franchise.

I really can't see Sony being able to release the console for less than $499.99, and they'll be making a loss on each unit sold at that price imo. They've raised around $6bn by selling two office buildings and shares but you've got to consider that every other division of the company is haemorrhaging cash at the moment, and $6b isn't a great deal of money in the grand scheme of things these days.

You'll see both the PS4 and 720 having decent launches the same way the Wii U did but from the start of next year onwards sales will slump.

I just can't see the other consoles catching up with the Wii U.