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g911turbo said:

Not sure if you can define what EXACTLY is too much or not, a little hard to say.  If either company had that crystal ball this conversation would be over...  So I disagree with Zero there.  It all depends on what the console offers and how much value that is perceived at by the public.  More on that below.

I will however agree with Zero in that the CELL market is a bad comparison. 

Cell phones are more often than not bought on contract, and they are people's life blood at this poing.  You're always using it for work or play.  Calls, texting, internet surfing including facebook, etc.  People cannot live without a cell phone it seems, yet you could easily live without a game system (well maybe some of you would "die" lol).

That being said, here is what it comes down to.  Sony will attempt to get mainstream buyers to notice the difference between PS4 and PS3 - things like on screen graphics and connectivity, etc.  Nintendo will attempt to get mainstream buyers to notice the difference between Wii and Wii U (where Nintendo has done a poor job of so far) in terms of ways to play (tablet controller, etc.)

What is the tablet controller worth to people?  That will define what number the Wii U can sell at and be successful.  So far 300-350 has been a bit much given the lack of games, and specificlly lack of games utilizing the controller.

What are updated graphics worth on the PS4?  so on... 

 

 

Also, not sure what the price of games has to do with the cost of a console... 

I agree that value is important, hell, the wii u deluxe sells more even though it's more expensive. however there's a price limit people are willing to pay for a console. just look at 3ds and vita, while it is safe to assume both would have sold better at $250 if they had more games (value) at the time, consumers showed they aren't willing to pay $250 on a handheld console. 3ds price cut raised sales a lot and kept it stable untill mario 3d land released. this means the acceptable launch price for handhelds is $199 tops.

on the home consoles side, wii u is performing well for it's price and lack of games, with the small spikes at releases like lego city showing people just want the big games to come before buying it. the problem is that 399 for home consoles seems pretty close to the 250 on the handheld side. if ps4/next box release at that price with must have exclusives, they may sell good but not incredible. if they release at 450+ or at 399 without must have titles, i can see both strugling after the holydays, just like wii u is doing now.