Going through the PS3 top sellers, to determine the earliest likely big exclusive for the PS4. In the case of franchises like GTA/GT, where there is a PS3 game in the works, I'll ignore the possibility of a PS4 port, because that won't meet the exclusive criteria. By big, I'm not meaning million seller or anything like that, I'm meaning big enough to push significant hardware.

Franchise: Call of Duty

Chance of being PS4 exclusive: ~0%

Franchise: GTA

Chance of being PS4 exclusive: ~0%

Franchise: GT

Chance of being PS4 exclusive: ~100%

Chance of being big: ~100%

Release date: ~2016 

Franchise: Battlefield,Fifa,Assassin's Creed

Chance of being PS4 exclusive: ~0%

Franchise: Uncharted (5)

Chance of being exclusive 100%

Chance of being big - 90%

Release Date: late 2015 (I really doubt Uncharted 4 will be PS4 exclusive)

Franchise: LBP3

Chance of being PS4 exclusive: ~100%

Chance of being big: ~20% (I wouldn't even put it that high just looking at sales of previous games, but I think that with the share/trackpad, they might be able to do some really interesting stuff with the next.)

Release date: 2014 if spinoffs dont get in the way.

Franchise: Final Fantasy (15)

Chance of being PS4 exclusive: ~10%

Chance of being big: ~60%

Release date: 2016

Franchise: Resident Evil

Chance of being PS4 exclusive: ~0%

Franchise: God of War

Chance of being PS4 exclusive: ~100%

Chance of being big: ~20%

Release date: late 2015

Franchise: MGS

Chance of being PS4 exclusive: low

Updated thanks to ktay95

I'm going to stop the list here, below are things that either were single game releases or had medium sales and have since dropped. I don't think anything from below GoW has much chance.

There is of course the chance of a new IP coming out of nowhere, but so far the front runners seem to be:

Uncharted 4 - if it is PS4 exclusive (2013)

LBP if they stop dicking around with spinoffs and it ends up selling much more than LBP2, (2014)

Uncharted 5 if Uncharted 4 is not PS4 exclusive (2015)

Now please don't misinterpret this thread, I am not going to pronounce any consoles doomed at this stage - the PS3 did alright in the end waiting for MGS4 for a year and a half.

I have a feeling Versus will be called 15 and it will be exclusive. Thats going to be huge.

Edit: we dont know which exclusives games will be big on PS4 there will be new IP's after all :)

obviously never.

Huh? Killzone, exclusive, probably the first.
/thread

I'm talking BIG games, 5 million is big, 2 million is not.

Oh, Killzone not a big game? Interesting :) But if that's your measurement, ok.

K2 Sold 2.9 million, K3 sold 2.5M. They sell well, but not well enough to push the numbers of consoles I am meaning. Remember back at the PS3 launch, the PS3 had plenty of games that would end up selling 2-3 million, but it was not until MGS4 that hardware started moving. You need 5 million sellers, not 2 million sellers to mvoe hardware.

well SQEX have us waiting for E3 right now and if they have a ps4 exclusive that can launch in 2014 at any stage it will be huge, mgs seems unlikely with MGSV all but confirmed multiplat but maybe a next gen exclusive

Won't that be on the PS3? Even if it goes to PS4 as well, that doesn't count as PS4 exclusive. Large numbers of people do not buy a new console to play a game that they can already play just with slightly worse graphics.