Going through the PS3 top sellers, to determine the earliest likely big exclusive for the PS4. In the case of franchises like GTA/GT, where there is a PS3 game in the works, I'll ignore the possibility of a PS4 port, because that won't meet the exclusive criteria. By big, I'm not meaning million seller or anything like that, I'm meaning big enough to push significant hardware.
Franchise: Call of Duty
Chance of being PS4 exclusive: ~0%
Franchise: GTA
Chance of being PS4 exclusive: ~0%
Franchise: GT
Chance of being PS4 exclusive: ~100%
Chance of being big: ~100%
Release date: ~2016
Franchise: Battlefield,Fifa,Assassin's Creed
Chance of being PS4 exclusive: ~0%
Franchise: Uncharted (5)
Chance of being exclusive 100%
Chance of being big - 90%
Release Date: late 2015 (I really doubt Uncharted 4 will be PS4 exclusive)
Franchise: LBP3
Chance of being PS4 exclusive: ~100%
Chance of being big: ~20% (I wouldn't even put it that high just looking at sales of previous games, but I think that with the share/trackpad, they might be able to do some really interesting stuff with the next.)
Release date: 2014 if spinoffs dont get in the way.
Franchise: Final Fantasy (15)
Chance of being PS4 exclusive: ~10%
Chance of being big: ~60%
Release date: 2016
Franchise: Resident Evil
Chance of being PS4 exclusive: ~0%
Franchise: God of War
Chance of being PS4 exclusive: ~100%
Chance of being big: ~20%
Release date: late 2015
Franchise: MGS
Chance of being PS4 exclusive: low
Updated thanks to ktay95
I'm going to stop the list here, below are things that either were single game releases or had medium sales and have since dropped. I don't think anything from below GoW has much chance.
There is of course the chance of a new IP coming out of nowhere, but so far the front runners seem to be:
Uncharted 4 - if it is PS4 exclusive (2013)
LBP if they stop dicking around with spinoffs and it ends up selling much more than LBP2, (2014)
Uncharted 5 if Uncharted 4 is not PS4 exclusive (2015)
Now please don't misinterpret this thread, I am not going to pronounce any consoles doomed at this stage - the PS3 did alright in the end waiting for MGS4 for a year and a half.
