Yeah, I'm not saying it's not a very fun title, I'm just saying it has a generic name and theme.  Very much like inFamous.  They just don't capture the imagination of myself or a lot of gamers, and that's why they don't sell amazing... it has nothing to do with their quality.

Uncharted has managed to establish some bigger sales and brand name.  Final Fantasy has a pretty passionate fanbase, so an exclusive FFXV could motivate a lot of buyers to the system if it looked good.  Killzone and the other launch titles revealed so far just don't have that same mass-market draw.

Chances of being big, ~20% ? What the hell are you basing that on? God of War: Ascension? A.k.a. the prequel nobody asked for which released at the end of the generation and had no hype yet still sold over 1 million in 3-4 weeks? GoW 1 & 2 average at 4.5 million and God of War III sold 6m+.

(GoW3 sold 5.2m May 30th 2012, another 576K since then according to Vgchartz which is really 670K at least since they were roughly 16% off according to Sony before. In addition to that the God of War: Omega collection which Vgchartz doesn't track sold at least 50K. Then they have the God of War: Saga underracked since it sold 63K as part of the bundle alone in March which would mean Vgchartz estimates suggest it only sold 25K alone which is impossible due to it being bundled with new copies of God of War: Ascension for a week in GameStop online. Doing the maths and using common sense this puts God of War III at about 5.95 million at the very minimun. It's likely around 6.05m at the moment with the highest possibilty being 6.15m. By the end of this month it'll sell another 150K (roughly) including the GoW Saga (the legacy bundle has had a price cut (everywhere) + saga price cut (amazon) = an increase over last month). By the end of April 2013 God of War III will have sold between 6.10-6.30m (6.20m) which will make it the bestselling Sony exclusive outside of Gran Turismo for the last two console generations. God of War IV is likely to outsell God of War III, if the growth from 3-4 is similar to 1/2- 3 then God of War IV will be 7.5M+ seller and move a significant amount of hardware).

So, If anything:

Chances of Gran Turismo 6 or God of War IV being big = 100%. Both don't depend on mass bundling for huge sales. (Although GT games are typically mass bundled they don't rely on them to sell between 6-8 million, whatever it is. And GoW games (main trilogy) didn't rely on them to sell 4-6 million).

(GT6 will release on the PS4 during holidays 2015, GoW IV will either release holidays 2015 or more likely March 2016).

Chances of LBP3 or Uncharted 4 being big = 50%. Both series depend on mass bundling for huge sales (5M+), look at what happened to LBP2 which didn't get mass bundled, it sold half of LBP1. The exact same thing would happen to UC4, they just don't have the fan-bases to put out truly huge numbers. Without the bundling they're no bigger franchises than Killzone, Infamous etc, so it's 50% because they either get mass bundled or they don't.

(UC4 will release on the PS4 during the holidays 2014, LBP3 will be announced this E3 (if it's going to happen) and release early 2014).

Killzone, Infamous, Resistance etc, put out good numbers but obviously none of them are big sellers. Then again it all depends on how much they're bundled, look at Resistance: Fall of Man, is sold over 4 million because it was a launch title that was mass bundled, the sequel did half that that and the 3rd game did half again. Killzone: Shadow Fall could do Resistance: FoM numbes or better if it gets the same launch title bundling, so I'm going to say that will be the first big PS4 exclusive.

The first big PS4 exclusive game will be KILLZONE Shadow Fall & then DRIVECLUB. :)

Going to be unique here and say Infamous. It has about twice the hype as killzone and is doing something unique. On top of that it's open world, a spin off (this works good since the main series wasn't huge), amazing graphics, and seems to have a deep story. I'd bet my sig that it's the best selling launch title.

But going by the OP's weird rules I'll just say Santa Monica's new ip.

Sig control for 5m lifetime sales would be such a long bet as to be pointless and I'm not that confident in 3m first 365 days to make that a bet either; bummer.

I think Holiday 2014. That could be a new Uncharted, Gran Turismo or something then.

Aside from Killzone, I don't see anything announced thus far that could push a million easily.

Hahaha I'd still take that bet! I'd expect COD players to want to play with all their friends, hence on PS3 and XBOX 360.

Killzone can't sell 5 million, especially cause it will compete Battlefield and the next COD which is huge competition.

Resistance and Motorstorm did that at launch title... it will be easy for Killzone because the gamers will have few games to buy like happened with Resistance an Motrostorm.