Shouldn't the OP concede to the rule he put in the title? I mean, 15 Million minimum is absolutely hilarious!

Sensible post OP! I applaud you for having to courage to stand up to the pedo...I mean Nintendophiles that swarm these forums.

I believe you are too generous in your forecast. I expect the Wii U to sell FEWER units than even the GC. So yeah, less than 20 million.

~Mod Edit~

This post has been moderated.

-Smeags

Games didn't sell Game Cube and N64. I don't know how many you expect the U to sell but if it's at SNES or NES levels you are going to be dissapointed.

As for profit? Ps3 lost money... they lost more money because they didn't sell as many as they wanted to... they lost even more money after that because they cut price sooner then they wanted to. Wii U is in the same boat. This is the first time Nintendo sold a console at launch and they definatly aren't selling nearly as much as they expected to sell (probably will miss their initial projection by 35%) and retailers and publishers are calling them out for a price cut.

At least he's not calling WiiU fans stupid.

lol, I could not have phrased that more poorly. What I meant to say was that Playstation completely dominated the industry for two generations. M$ and Sega couldn't even compare to them during that time, and they essentially forced Nintendo pursue an entirely different market to stay in the game, yet Sony completely squandered all of that with with the PS3. Had they played it cool and released a reasonable system at a reasonable price, with a decent library, they would have left M$ in the dust again. Instead we got the PS3, and now Xbox is a massive brand name that securely owns the US market. Not only that, but this gen, Xbox has been more profitable than Playstation! Not to downplay M$'s achievement, but Sony really dropped the ball on this one.

I think 50 million is doable. But considering PS3 doing 55-65% of PS2 is regarded as abject failure by those who like to see the worst in things, especially anything Sony. Wii U doing 50% of Wii should be seen in the same light.

However, potential should be taken into account. PS3 had the potential to sell upwards of 120 million, but it ended up being handicapped by various factors. I never thought Wii U had Wii-like sales potential, purely for the reason that millions of people who've never bought a console in their life bought a Wii, and the likelihood of that segment of the Wii market becoming multi-generation console owners was always pretty low.

The people who will buy a Wii U are: hard out Nintendo fans (25 million); the multi / all console crowd (10 million?); some of the Wii's blue ocean crowd (10 million); and 5 million more for good measure. Anything substantially more than that is gravy for the Wii U. So Nintendo's job really is to bring Wii U to per unit profitability ASAP so they can get the vast majority of Wii U's sold at a profit, not relying on people buying at least one game to turn a profit.

Actually, I think you are grossly overestimating the potential. Sure, there are die hard fans that will buy no matter what junk they shove into the market. But really, minimum 25 million? Absolutely not. That's the total sales for the entire life cycle if you are lucky.

Just wait another year for PS4/Nextbox to hit the market. I believe this is the end of Nintendo as a dominant player in the industry. I believe the abject failure of the Wii U will force the company into restructuring ala Sega. They will keep dominion in the handheld market but they will also eject themselves from mainstream console competition. Don't be surprised if you see Mario and Zelda on PS5.

Actually, the N64 and GC were profitable, they lost the overwhelming marketshare Nintendo had previously, but neither system that big of a failure except maybe in Japan (although the Gamecube did come close) because they still sold titles in other territories.

The Wii U's biggest flaw right now is the fact that Nintendo released it without the software to support it, expecting Mario Bros U and the Wii casual audience to pick up the slack. Iwata and his circle were spoiled by the Wii and the success of Wii Sports that they didn't remember even the DS had a rough early life until more DS unique software like Brain Training, Nintendogs, Professor Layton and others pushed the hardware. It would be foolish to abandon the system now or consider it a wash without actually, trying to release software that would propel growth as a unique experience, something Nintendo hasn't done in almost 6 months in the systems life.

It is very much the lack of games that put the Wii U at this disadvantage and Nintendo has only themselves to blame because many publishers still remember Nintendo burning them in the past and would love to see it fail.

If you wanted "sensible discussion"  You wouldn't post "stick a fork in them they are done"

They clearly screwed up (when it comes to not having software lined up) but around holiday time I guarantee that they will have some big guns and move some consoles.

Nintendo is not going to abandon the system even it it ends up selling a little less than Gamecube.

Enough with the drama and doom and gloom.  The system isn't going anywhere.  It will get some killer games for it and will be worth owning....bottomline

Am i the only one that thought it was ironic the title, plus the disclaimer? Its like saying: This is all adult here, but let me bash some first. It only counts after i say so!

3rd parties are mostly irrelevant. People buy Nintendo consoles for Nintendo games.
And yes, you are speaking too soon. The rumors say the next Xbox will be required to have online permanently, allows no used games, requires kinect, etc. That is basically Microsoft going into a world of hurt and pushing people into a 2 way option between Sony and Nintendo.
With the right games out, and with the price droped this christmas, it will sell alot more than the new consoles at a high price will. Actually, try to remember the 3DS. It was doomed this far into its existance and now look, its a raging sucess. Yeah... patience, Rome wasnt built in a day.