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Am i the only one that thought it was ironic the title, plus the disclaimer? Its like saying: This is all adult here, but let me bash some first. It only counts after i say so!

3rd parties are mostly irrelevant. People buy Nintendo consoles for Nintendo games.
And yes, you are speaking too soon. The rumors say the next Xbox will be required to have online permanently, allows no used games, requires kinect, etc. That is basically Microsoft going into a world of hurt and pushing people into a 2 way option between Sony and Nintendo.
With the right games out, and with the price droped this christmas, it will sell alot more than the new consoles at a high price will. Actually, try to remember the 3DS. It was doomed this far into its existance and now look, its a raging sucess. Yeah... patience, Rome wasnt built in a day.