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Forums - Nintendo - Put a fork in the Wii U, it is done. [Sensible discussion only, no flaming]

osed125 said:
Player1x3 said:
...also, if I might add, I've never seen such an enormous amount of irrational defense for Wii U anywhere on the internet. Some people here just have big problems with facts and accepting reality of a situation their beloved console is in

No different than people defending the PS3, 3DS and Vita.


It really is no different.  The Wii U is the target of hateboys who are anti-gaming and want to see companies and consoles fail.  Wanting to see failure is either childish or evil.  Possibly both.

Those anti-Wii U hateboys generally make statements that, if true, would mean the Wii was an instant failure, the DS was a failure, and the PS3 was the highest-selling console of the generation.  Their comments are always religiously illogical.



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bananaking21 said:
Max King of the Wild said:
bananaking21 said:
mutantclown said:

Since not many people noticed the Wii U is a totally new Nintendo console, if I were Nintendo I would prepare a total re-launch this fall to fight the arrival of the next-gen consoles. I would re-brand the console "Nintendo Ultra" redesign it with an internal HDD, optical audio output, 5.1 dolby/DTS support and ethernet, USB 3.0. I would make a serious effort and investment to make the Nintendo Network faster and better in every way. I would also make sure to have a new 3D Mario for the re-launch. The prices would stay the same, $300 and $350, HDD capacity matching the ones offered by the competition. I would phase out Wii U, and re-brand and re-release the existing Wii U library as Nintendo Ultra games. It seems desperate, but I think it's better than cutting the prices. Let's face it, the Wii U has a serious branding and positioning problem, cutting the price won't help it and some new games won't be enough in the long run.


did anything like that drastic ever happen in the video game industry before?



Ps3 slim would be the only thing close. However, Ps3 wasn't as bad off as the Wii U is.

but they didnt rebrand the console with the ps3 slim. they gave it a new model gave it a strong software release schedule and a new marketing campaign. its no where near drastic mutanclown suggested


Desperate times call for desperate measures.  It all depends on what Nintendo wishes to do with their console. If they want to let it go down the path it's on since launch, and ultimately fail what they (alledgedly) set out to do -repeat Wii's success and this time bring the third parties on board- then I think they will just cut their losses and the end of the day and let Wii U go down as another Gamecube/Dreamcast. They will pull it out of the market in 4 years and probably won't have huge losses since they played it safe (as usual) with their hardware which is only being sold at a tiny loss (by next year it should be profitable even with a $50 price cut). I'm pretty sure in a year or two they will start research for a new console and will try to read the consumer better and assess the market more carefully, and hopefully will come up with another gaming revelation that is diametrically opposite of where videogames are going. I think they will keep going through this cycle until they come against a wall and are forced to change their philosophy or maybe partner up with another electronics giant.



Akvod said:
 

"1.  (a)  I don't care about Pachter's degrees, no appeal to authority fallacies from you please, especially when his ACTUAL area of expertise is stock analysis. "

Stock analysis requires you to understand the company's business you know? What exactly do you think stock analysis entails?

Also, lol "appeal to authority fallacies". Did you just read Wikipedia's article on logical fallacies or something?

Point is, is that Pachter actually reads 10-k's and other, exclusive, sources of information and talks to management as well as journalists. He's a fucking expert, and I find it hard to believe that he's just pulling numbers out of his ass.

On the other hand you just make claims while even admitting yourself that you have "no data".

Knowledge isn't a perfect or surefire thing. Given the limitations, I'm going to believe Pachter over you.

"Or is the Wii unique among consoles in having a rock hard cost of manufacturing that has barely decreased through an entire console generation?".

Could be, dunno. Can't really say anything about the costs at this point in the generation, since I have no knowledge about that.

But as for not cutting the prices: 1) A few years ago, when the Wii was still selling a lot, it would have been stupid to cut prices and lower MARGIN. 2) The price they have now could be based on a number of stuff. They might have an idea of what the current demand of Wii is, and determined that the current cost maximizes profit (which is a function of volume and margin). It might be that costs can't be lowered anymore.

I'm not really sure where exactly you're going with this though.

"(b)  What are you basing that opinion about peripherals on?  Regardless, they will still sell many tens of millions of controllers."

From what I've seen, Nintendo has mainly been marketing the WiiU as 1 GamePad+a bunch of Wii motes. Going off of what seems to be Nintendo's marketing (and therefore, business strategy), I just don't see Wii motes being sold as much, given that current Wii owners should already have some.

Maybe they'll sell the GamePads? I don't own a WiiU so I'm not sure if there's support for multiple GamePads (are they even being sold individually)? But it just doesn't seem like something that'll have a lot of volume in terms of sales (or appeal).

"2.  (a)  It's hard to say how much Nintendo franchises benefit from the hardware control I spoke of.  But I would argue that in the long run, it is more beneficial to keep the franchise strong than to pursue the short term gains of going multiplatform, only to see your franchise suffer and see declining sales because of declining quality, rather than continuing strongly into the future.  In this scenario, in exchange for a smaller market they gain reliable customer support.  Look at Sonic.  "

I think the Sonic brand really didn't fail as a result of a lack of exclusive hardware, but just poor quality software.

"(b)  If I were to speculate, I would say that the difference between having to support a console, but not having to pay royalties and also receiving royalties from third parties (which believe it or not do exist on Nintendo consoles), may or may not be equal to not having to support a console, but having to pay royalties, but having access to a greater market; but that when you take into account not only the hardware factor I refer to elsewhere (and possible franchise degradation if hardware control is lost) but also brand unity/recognition, it is at least equal.  "

Christ that's a long sentence (also a lot of "buts"). Sorry, I didn't really follow what you wrote there.

"3.  Aside from the effect it had on existing franchises (and I'd remind you of Super Mario 64 and the analog stick, which acknowledging that there are people like RolStoppable who would argue that that was also detrimental to the franchise), it gives Nintendo opportunities to do NEW things like Wii Sports, WSR, and the Trauma Center series which (as a non-player, I understand) relies on touchscreen or Wii Remote drawing for its gameplay.  Making new franchises as well as continuing old ones is, I'm sure you will agree, essential to the health of a software company."

Sure, but does that really get people to pay a premium for the console? WiiU seems to show that people aren't. Is it worth having those controls if that means that you can only sell to one platform? It just doesn't really make sense for a hardware or software point of view.

 

"1)  You haven't even proven that the Nintendo hardware and hardware-based business is unprofitable.  Aside from that, I will concede that if you are only analyzing the hardware for the hardware's sake, then it isn't relevant to that analysis how much the hardware helps the software.  


2)  On the other hand, I think it's quite a remarkable claim to say that "Dictating hardware-->better software" has no relevance to Nintendo's software business.  I mean frankly that's a completely ridiculous statement.  What I suppose you mean is that the quality argument is trumped by the quantity argument of being able to release across two platforms (not three, unless you forsee a new entrant into the market).  But IMO that is a shortsighted outlook because over time series of inferior quality dwindle and fade away, if not disappear entirely.  


4.  In conclusion, simple logic isn't necessarily correct logic.  And I have better things to do than to do 100% of the factfinding while you don't have the same burden, especially when you (and Pachter) are the ones making the claim in the first place that Nintendo would be smarter to abandon their hardware business.  The burden of proof is on you IMO. "

 

Watch the video again. Don't stop inbetween it. Just take a deep breath, and understand that he's just about business. You could say that Nintendo's more focused on "quality" or "artistic integrity" or something like that. But Pachter's points are simple.

Nintendo's not making enough money on hardware, Nintendo could make more money on software.

I don't like to say it but Pachter is so right on this one. The only reason Nintendo made a loss last year was because of Wii-U hardware costs. Also Pachter forgot one very important argument, it's not only about the very small profit they make on the Wii-U you also have to count for all the development costs that came before it's release.

Like he said going software only would be much more profitable for them, though i still think since Nintendo is doing pretty well in the handheld department they could try a Nintendo tablet.

I'm pretty sure they could make a nice deal with Sony or Microsoft where they would have to pay very limited royalty fees anyway.(they probably wouldn't have to pay them at all if they were to release exclusively for only one of them).

I would love a Nintendo/Sony collaberation and it would probably be better for everyone including Nintendo fans, since they would get great 3rd party support and very powerfull hardware.



mutantclown said:
bananaking21 said:
Max King of the Wild said:
bananaking21 said:
mutantclown said:

Since not many people noticed the Wii U is a totally new Nintendo console, if I were Nintendo I would prepare a total re-launch this fall to fight the arrival of the next-gen consoles. I would re-brand the console "Nintendo Ultra" redesign it with an internal HDD, optical audio output, 5.1 dolby/DTS support and ethernet, USB 3.0. I would make a serious effort and investment to make the Nintendo Network faster and better in every way. I would also make sure to have a new 3D Mario for the re-launch. The prices would stay the same, $300 and $350, HDD capacity matching the ones offered by the competition. I would phase out Wii U, and re-brand and re-release the existing Wii U library as Nintendo Ultra games. It seems desperate, but I think it's better than cutting the prices. Let's face it, the Wii U has a serious branding and positioning problem, cutting the price won't help it and some new games won't be enough in the long run.


did anything like that drastic ever happen in the video game industry before?



Ps3 slim would be the only thing close. However, Ps3 wasn't as bad off as the Wii U is.

but they didnt rebrand the console with the ps3 slim. they gave it a new model gave it a strong software release schedule and a new marketing campaign. its no where near drastic mutanclown suggested


Desperate times call for desperate measures.  It all depends on what Nintendo wishes to do with their console. If they want to let it go down the path it's on since launch, and ultimately fail what they (alledgedly) set out to do -repeat Wii's success and this time bring the third parties on board- then I think they will just cut their losses and the end of the day and let Wii U go down as another Gamecube/Dreamcast. They will pull it out of the market in 4 years and probably won't have huge losses since they played it safe (as usual) with their hardware which is only being sold at a tiny loss (by next year it should be profitable even with a $50 price cut). I'm pretty sure in a year or two they will start research for a new console and will try to read the consumer better and assess the market more carefully, and hopefully will come up with another gaming revelation that is diametrically opposite of where videogames are going. I think they will keep going through this cycle until they come against a wall and are forced to change their philosophy or maybe partner up with another electronics giant.

2 things that effect ps3's profitability. 1. the faster than expect price cut. and 2. selling less than expected. I don't know what slight loss is to you but it's at least $35 at the time Nintendo said they sell each wii u at a loss. Considering they are selling a shit ton less than expected i wouldnt be surprised if its more than that now. These costs are all functions and this particular one would be law of diminishing returns i believe. As for a 50$ price cut and remaining profitable? very doubtful. there isnt anything in the wii u that will drastically reduce in price technology wise. Best they can hope for at that point is multiple 10mil+ sellers and iincrease sales which decrease losses but probably not enought to cover 50$.



Max King of the Wild said:
fillet said:
OP makes valid points...

It's a shame everyone gets on the biased defensive protection mode.

Get a grip!

Ya know, I've been combating people who have been saying ps4 and 720 wwill be worse and people who are saying wii u will triple sales overnight that I never read the op.... and now that I have I agree with you. Though OP could have worked on his presentation. I got just as much flak when I made a thread that put the wii us sales and how low they were into perspective

I know, it's getting out of hand. Sure having a massive dig against a console is silly for no reason but the Wii-U is obviously in dire straights at the moment and to comment on that looking to the future based on what we know now is hardly heracy, but from the replies here one would think the OP is some kind of witch spreading evil curses around.

:)



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Player1x3 said:
Resident_Hazard said:
Captain_Tom said:

I personally dropped the expensive XB Live account for the Wii U and PS3. I do very little online gaming, thus far do not miss Achievements (and don't care about Trophies on my PS3).  Sony already doesn't allow you to carry over games you purchased on the PS3 to the PS4, so maintaining an account there seems a little hollow.

You are not the majority of gamers. Online gaming is the reason why COD became so popular and why the industry grew so much in this gen. It's also contributing to the lenght of this gen, for as we can see, PS3 is still sellin about 130k a week in its 6th years and wii struggles to sell above 25k.

Congratulations--you completely missed my point.  It was not about online gaming, it was about this magical notion of consumer loyalty based entirely off maintaining an XBLA account.  This will work for a lot of gamers, but the original, illogical post indicated it would be the case across the board. Which it won't.  No one dismisses the popularity of general online gaming--which is why the Wii U does it quite well.  But you missed the point.

 


So what?  The DS was roughly the same power as an optimized, efficient N64.  The Wii was roughly the same power as an efficient original Xbox.  The PSP was just a portable PS2.  What's your point?  RAM does not magically equal quality games.

It doesnt, but it attracts more developers. DS, being a Nintendo handheld, would still get insane amount of 3rd party support, simply because of its popularity. If it had the power of PSP, PSP would be dead in its 1st year. Wii's weak hardware is actually one of the reasons why it recieved horrible 3rd party support this gen, and PSP piracy and hacking killed its software support.

Utter nonsense.  You're claiming the DS would have magically outsold the PSP if it was the same power as the PSP.  If that was true, the PSP would have sold those numbers.  It wasn't about hardware power, it was about the ease of use of the DS and the features it offered.  The PSP struggled because it lacked it's own identity and was wrongly used as just portable PS2.  Power was never the the issue.

 

 

Using the Vita like the GamePad is highly unintuitive and very simply, not consumer-friendly.  It is not a feature that will be widely used.  Microsoft SmartGlass is essentially a failure and was a flawed concept from the start.  Microsoft potentially having a tablet controller will not hurt the Wii U. Rather, it has the potential for creating that format as a new industry norm, and any game built on Wii U or Durango would make sense on the other--pretty much all modern game engines are scalable, so anything made for the Durango can be scaled back to the Wii U--and the leap to the Durango and PS4 is noted for not being as drastic as the leap from Xbox to X360 or PS2 to PS3, technologically.  

Thats not the point really. The point is, MS and Sony offer pretty much the same feature together with supperior hardware, more media options and better 3rd party support on their next gen systems.  And actually, if you use raw numbers, jump from PS3 to PS4 is the biggest so far (16x)

If you're ignoring my point, then you're ignoring logical reasoning.  By your "logic," the PS3 and Move were massively successful against the Wii because "it offered the same thing for more money with more power."  But that didn't happen, now did it?  Sony does not offer the same feature with the Vita~PS4 as Nintendo does with the Wii U by itself.  They put a touch-screen on the Vita, which Nintendo has on the DS and 3DS, by your very statement, merely having "the same with more power" equals better sales, which is flatly illogical and historically innacurate.  After all, the Atari 7800 literally offered "the same but better" than the Atari 2600, and it was a sales disaster.  The Atari Jaguar and Neo Geo essentially offered "the same but better" (technologically speaking) games as the Genesis and SNES, but they never outsold them.  I've said this before and I'll say it again because too few people seem smart enough to understand it:  RAW POWER DOES NOT EQUAL SALES SUCCESS, AND THE TOP SELLING PLATFORM HAS NEVER BEEN THE MOST POWERFUL.

 

The EXACT SAME THING will be true of the PS4 and Durango, and to be perfectly frank, is becoming increasingly true of the X360 as Microsoft gradually loses more and more 1st party games.  People like you complained before that the Wii was a failure because it DIDN'T have the exact same third party games as everyone else, now because the Wii U will, you think it's a failure again?  A good 99% of "compelling 3rd party games" these days will always be multiplatform in some way or another.

Uh, what? Both PS3 and 360 had bilion times better 3rd party support than Wii this gen, and i really dont see how is that going to change in the next gen. As for the 1st party support, PS3 in its soon 7th year has Ni No Kuni, GOW Ascension, TLoU, Beyond and possibly Gran Turismo 6 or Last Guardian. What does Wii have this year? Better yet, what does even Wii U have this year?

A billion?  Really? Is that a scientific calculation? Because it's incorrect if it is.  You don't see how it could change next gen? Your mind must be really closed to what's happening in this industry right now.  We have three new Android-based consoles coming out as well as the Steamboxes.  The Vita and Wii U will be entering their defining stages when the PS4 and Durango are just launching to a cluttered marketplace.  Yep, the PS3 is still going strong--which will likely damage PS4 sales later this year.  But outside of their portables and the NES-SNES, Nintendo's systems have lately languished their way out the door.  The N64 and GameCube slunk out the worst of all of them, and the Wii still sold.  Ni No Kuni is also NOT a 1st party PS3 game, and is not even published by Sony--it's published by Namco-Bandai, and there are rumors of it going to another platform already.  Gran Turismo 6, at this point, is probably more likely to be a PS4 game, and I'd expect the same of Last Guardian.  Sony themselves noted that all their teams are working on PS4 games--not PS3 games (and apparently not Vita either, which seems odd, but is probably inaccurate).

You're "really don't see" comment is the same nonsense that was issued when the Wii and DS launched (and to be fair, I said it of the DS)--"I don't see how it will be successful."  That's because you don't understand, probably because you don't want to.  Nintendo stated, very clearly, they are not going to play by the rules of MS and Sony--their goal isn't to be just another console where you can get 90-99% of the games anywhere else.  And in the end, even the Wii managed a vast library of over 100 exclusive, hardcore games that averaged 70 or higher on Metacritic.  

 

 

 

Long load times are here to stay, even on the PS3 which REQUIRES installation of almost every game. This hardly matters as 3rd party devs are used to it by now. Games will have ample DLC, and several already do.  Any harddrive can be attached and most harddrive space of the PS3 is taken up by forced installation of games, not DLC.  This is an illogical reason for third party devs to develop on the system.

Yeah, the only problem is, Nintendo was smart enough to include 4, FUCKING 4 GB's of HDD on WiiU!!! PS4 RAM has double the memory, for Christ's sake!!! This is a whole new level of primitive technology by Nintendo. I mean, you can barely install 2-3 games on the system. Its pitful

Yeah!  Just like no one bought the 4GB Xbox 360's or Arcade models without harddrives--EXCEPT THAT TONS OF PEOPLE DID.  Also, it's 8GB.  Not a lot by any stretch of the imagination, but you can plug in any external harddrive to the thing.  Besides which, I'm a pretty avid gamer--and it still took me 4 years to fill my X360's 60 GB harddrive close to capacity.  Downloadable games are not as big as you think.  Frankly, I've already installed more games on my Wii U than you claim.  By the way, RAM and harddrives are not the same thing, and for that matter, the Wii U, like the Wii and 3DS, does not have a harddrive. It has internal flash memory like that in an SD card. Solid State.  Again, you're getting your panties in a bind for something petty that, ultimately, doesn't matter all that much.  More storage is always better, and the 8GB Wii U is the one generally ignored (I bought the 32GB myself), but honestly, in this day and age, who really cares?  It's all expandable.  If you really want to complain about something storage-related, maybe you should go look up the pricing of the Piston.

 

You're making an assumption based on one game.

If WiiU owners struggle to install this gen's games on their HDD, just image what kind of nightmares they will have with the next gen games, which will be 3-4 timess bigger than the games today (that is, if they even get the games)

I'm imagining very few nightmares.  More like, "oh, I need more storage space.  Good thing I bought that highly affordable harddrive."  It would be nice if there was more, but at the same time, it's not like its sad near-blatant rip-off in the way Sony handles storage on the Vita.

 

Where are you getting these magic numbers and assumptions?  The only consoles I know of with installed bases of 150 million are the PS2 and original DS.  The GameCube and Wii were notable for being developer-friendly, and the Wii U follows the same design principle.

He probably meant the install base of PS360 together. And he's right, the PS4 has recieved numerous praise for its easy architecture, not to mention powerfull hardware. The problem with Wii U isnt that its not user friendly, its that its using and old and outdated hardware.

Actually, every indication is that you're pulling that out of your ass, and the Wii U is actually pretty user-friendly for developers.  Same as the GameCube and Wii.  And again, most modern engines, like Unreal, Unity, etc, are scalable--if it can run on the Durango or PS4, it can likely be scaled back to run on Wii U without much compromise outside of some superficial graphical features.

 

Price cuts pretty much always lead to increased sales, especially with accompanying advertising.  By the time the PS4 and Durango launch, sales of the PS3 and X360 will begin to decline, and will decline rapidly by late 2014 when the sophomore releases for the PS4 and Durango finally show them off.  At the time the PS4 and Durango launch, the Wii U will be seeing it's all-important sophomore releases hit the market, and this is typically when a console starts to see it's first major "defining" titles.  Note: This is the period when Gears of War and Halo 3 launched on the X360.  The year before those games was mostly crap for the Xbox 360.

Price cut didnt really help GameCube much, did it? And PS3 has yeat to reach massive market price (199$) and to have its system seller released for the 2nd time (GT6- we had 6 Halos on 360, God knows how many Marios on Wii, but only 1 Gran Turismo on PS3), so I'd say PS3 still has a lot of life left in it, Sony knows how to support their hardware (hell, even the PS2 is still selling today). After seeing the graphics of Beyond:2 souls, it even still can amaze us with its graphics. And what are these ''defining'' titles for Wii U? You dont even know, do you? Oh, let me guess, another Mario game? Seriously now...Theres a rumour that the next COD will be next-gen exclusive (no WiiU included, of course) and if thats true, it will considerably boost PS4 and Durango sales.

Anyone stupid enough to believe that rumor of the next Call of Duty being "next-gen only" is too stupid to know anything about A) rumors or B) video games or C) Activision.  Activision puts their games on every conceivable console to maximize profits.  You know what they won't have if the next CoD is next-gen only?  PROFITS.  The installed userbase will be way too fucking small--as even the most rudimentary logic will reveal--to likely make back the development costs of the next Call of Duty.  That franchise is very likely to be cross-generational for the next 2-3 years, and for the next year or two, guaranteed higher sales on the X360 and PS3 than Durango or PS4.  

What are the defining titles for the Wii U?  What are you, stupid?  You'd almost have to be to utter the statement you just did.  On the one hand, you state the PS3's defining titles, such as Gran Turismo and the gorgeous Beyond: Two Souls.  Where those games released the first year the console was out?  HELL FUCKING NO.  Pay attention here, because I know this will probably destroy your wrong world view:  NO CONSOLE SEES IT'S DEFINING TITLES RELEASED IT'S FIRST YEAR.  Especially not it's first fucking few months.  Both the PS3 and X360 were pretty barren their first year.  LOOK IT UP, YOU HAVE THE INTERNET.  A console does not start seeing it's defining titles until it's 1st year anniversary when the sophomore releases starte rolling out.  WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THOSE WILL BE YET ON THE WII U, HOW DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND THIS??  Fuck sakes, did you put any thought into this? Where is the logic in this statement?  What are the defining games for the Wii U?  Honestly, why not ask what the defining games are for the PS4 or the Ouya?  THERE'S JUST AS MUCH POSSIBILITY FOR AN ACCURATE ANSWER THERE--0%.   

At best, we know a new Mario Galaxy-esque title is on the way, the Fire Emblem~Shin Megami crossover, Monolith Softs "X" (which better be treated better than Xenoblade was, goddammit), a new Mario Kart, and Nintendo stated a yet unrevealed 1st party Wii U title is also coming out this year--among others.  Wonderful 101, Bayonetta 2, and Pikmin 3 aren't even out yet.  And we still have no idea what Retro Studios is working on.

The PS2 is really not "still selling today," but it had a great run.  It wasn't Sony supporting it, it was because it was a great platform.  The original DS is selling better.  

 

No it's not and raw power does not magically translate into hardware sales. Do I need to do my analysis here? The most powerful hardware has NEVER been the market leader in development or sales.

Thats not what he said, he said that that's where the hardcore goes. And they are the reliable market, not the casual fad of an audience Wii's userbase mostly consisted of. The casuals will jump on the ''next cool thing'' while the hardcores will stay loyal to the hobby/industry. Thats why Wii dropped so incredibly quickly, and why PS3 is still going strong.

If hardcores are truly "loyal to the hobby/industry," then they'll buy the Wii U and they won't have your shitty, incorrrect attitude.  Because they play games for gaming and experiences, not raw hardware power.  The Wii also did not "drop incredibly quickly."  It was consistently difficult to find for two years, and then remained a high seller for the next 2-3.  It only dropped off in it's last dismal year and a half.  Really, the Wii's sales dropped more in line with the 3DS coming out than anything that Sony or MS did.

 

 

The Dreamcast only sold about 10 million it's two years on the market.  The Wii U is roughly half that already.

I doubt WiiU will do as bad as DreamCast, but i dont excpect it to do higher than SNES numbers.

No console in this next generation will sell better than it's predecessor.  The Xbox 360 was very likely a high point for Microsoft consoles, and given the staying power of the PS3 during this late stage, the X360, despite launching first, is likely to finish out the generation in third.  Besides which, there are too many new gaming outlets including the three Android platforms (one of which I backed on Kickstarter, and on which my team is approved as a developer), and we have a big-ass unknown in the other Steambox offerings. 

Frankly, we could have a nice 3 or 4-tier generation.  Steambox-PS4-Durango as the expensive power consoles, Wii U-Vita-Project Shield as the unique middle class, and Ouya-3DS-GameStick (maybe Neo Geo X), as another class, and then the phones and tablets.  Nothing here tells me that PS4 or Durango will be the successes that the X360 or PS3 were.  Absolutely nothing.

 

 

 

It's pretty mindless to dismiss the Wii U after only four months, regardless of it's current sales.  Anyone who knows anything about gaming history knows that the first year is always plagued with low sales, long droughts, and ports of 3rd party games you could get elsewhere.  The same was true of the X360, PS3, 3DS, Wii, Vita, Dreamcast, PS2, GameCube, etc.

Yeah, except that most if not all of those systems sold better withing the same timeframe than Wii U did, some of them even had a higher price point.

You're only really accurate point--but a pointless one ultimtely, because we don't know how the Wii U will fare, and frankly, the only measure of how Nintendo may turn it around is in how the 3DS is faring now.  Which is pretty fucking good.

 

While the Wii U is more powerful than the Vita, they make a great pair (possibly along with Project Shield) for developers to make a different range of multiplatform games outside of the PS4/Durnago/Steambox/PC market--and possibly including all of them.

Developers are divided into the ones that develop/dedicadde themselves to consoles and the ones who dedicate themselves to handhelds. People who were never interested in consoles wont magically start making games for WiiU and vice versa for VITA.

An incorrect, possibly lazy assumption.  Developers switch gears all the time, and this generation has more viable options than any other.  You have no idea where development may go, and you're just writing off the Wii U based on an emotional want to do so.


My answers in bold underlines.

 

Old crap indented, corrections in italics.



AnthonyW86 said:

I don't like to say it but Pachter is so right on this one. The only reason Nintendo made a loss last year was because of Wii-U hardware costs. Also Pachter forgot one very important argument, it's not only about the very small profit they make on the Wii-U you also have to count for all the development costs that came before it's release.

Like he said going software only would be much more profitable for them, though i still think since Nintendo is doing pretty well in the handheld department they could try a Nintendo tablet.

I'm pretty sure they could make a nice deal with Sony or Microsoft where they would have to pay very limited royalty fees anyway.(they probably wouldn't have to pay them at all if they were to release exclusively for only one of them).

I would love a Nintendo/Sony collaberation and it would probably be better for everyone including Nintendo fans, since they would get great 3rd party support and very powerfull hardware.

They couldn't make such a deal (unless it was a matter of exclusivity) because they would be at Sony and Microsoft's mercy when it came to releasing console games. That's the reason why there's money in being a manufacturer; you control the gateways of distribution and make those royalty fees.

When Nintendo's hardware base is too insignificant to merit continuation, that also means that the strength of their software has declined to reflect that, which would mean they'd be in too weak of a position to do much as a third party in the first place. In the meantime, they'd have to trade off revenue from peripherals, the online shop, royalty-free first-party software, third party royalties, and actual hardware income, in exchange for *maybe* getting more software sales for Nintendo-published games only.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

If the nextbox turns out as bad as the rumors are making it out to be, then I will go Ps4 and Wii U. I think besides their not being enough games for the Wii U, people are waiting for all the next gen announcements to make their decision. After-all these things aren't cheap.



Wii-U won't sell that well and will finish last. But the first party games will come out and they'll entertain and be really good. So Nintendo fans will be happy.



Akvod said:
noname2200 said:
Akvod said:

I thought Michael Pachter had a pretty simple and compelling argument. You mainly make money off of consoles by:

1) Royalties/Licensing fees from third party games.

2) Selling your consoles at a profit

You forgot 3) Selling your own games.

Not joking: at the rate Nintendo games often sell, the royalties they save by being first party have to be pretty monstrous.


It sounds like you're assuming that Nintendo's software business is profitable because of the existence of a Nintendo hardware (which I think is a plausible argument).

 

Now can you elaborate more? Can you give a convincing argument why total sales for a Mario or Zelda game will be less if it was sold under 3 or 2 consoles, as opposed to 1? Less enthusiasm/brand awareness? Mismatch between the segment that own a PlayStation/XBox and the segment that buy Mario/Zelda (that is, without a Nintendo console, parents won't buy their young children a console and old school Nintendo fans will refuse to buy a Nintendo game that goes 3'rd party?)

 

Pacther's saying that Nintendo will basically be able to sell to triple the number of people they could sell (assuming that the WiiU, PS4, and 720 have equal sales) if they were first party.

You're arguing a combination of lower margins (due to royalties) and/or lower sales volume. And honestly, it doesn't sound that convincing. Will Nintendo fans really get that upset and refuse to buy a Zelda game that goes to the PlayStation or Xbox (so much for loyalty)? Will PlayStation and XBox owners not buy a Zelda game? Maybe you could argue that not many Xbox owners will buy a non-shooter game, but again, Pachter is saying that Nintendo will be selling X number of games to Xbox owners ON TOP of the number of games they would sell to WiiU.

Again, Pachter's logic is basically you will sell roughly 3 times the number of games by you would sell by going multiplatform, as opposed to exclusive. You obviously need to adjust it here and there (not all three consoles will have equal market share, less potential buzz for non-exclusives, segment mismatch), but the logic is simple and sound.

You're going to have show that the increase in game sales will actually have to be NEGATIVE. That Nintendo going 3'rd party will actually result in their games selling LESS than if they were first party.

You're misunderstanding. Take a look at your own point #1. The hardware manufacturer makes significant money off royalties of third-party games. Scuttlebutt has it this is about $8 per copy, if memory serves.

Now, take Nintendo's software sales. Deduct the appropriate royalty fees from each copy they've sold, because they're now a third-party. In light of how they can make several games that sell 20 million+ copies, with several more selling 10 million+ and a whole bunch selling over a million each, the savings are significant, to say the least. Mario Kart Wii alone would have earned Nintendo roughly $240 million less (grossly simplified for illustration purposes, of course) had it not been on a Nintendo console. Similar astronomical figures would apply to NSMB Wii, Wii Fit/+, Wii Sports Resort, etc.

So that's my point #3.

 

On a broader note, I think you're being far too quick to dismiss the amount of third-party software that does sell on Nintendo's systems. The data don't support the idea that third-party games don't sell on Nintendo systems. That might be what the meme says, and that might be what Pachter says, but that's not what the figures say. Until the end, the Wii was consistently moving a higher volume of third-party titles than the rival systems. Some may grouse about the type of software that was sold, or that Hardcore Franchise X sold seven or eight times more on rival systems, but for purposes of this financial discussion that amounts to a hill of beans; Casual Franchises A-W combined sold more copies than Hardcore Franchises X-Z, which in terms of third party royalty fees means the Casual Franchises brought in more money for the hardware developer.

Moving on, it's nice that Pachter is throwing out hypothetical figures with nothing to back them up. I, however, have a great deal of difficulty believing that the audience size would magically triple (even he only said "double."). You point out that this idea presumes there's zero overlap in console ownership, for example, but the idea also ignores that the disappearance of the Wii destroys over a third of the console market in a single swoop. And make no mistake: without Nintendo's exclusives, Nintendo consoles would be doing backflips to reach Gamecube figures. If the whining goes that first-party software sales on Nintendo systems is nearly half the total software moved, what makes you think the public will pay for expensive hardware that plays only some of the games they want? If Mario's on a PS3, why on Earth would I get a Wii U? Put alternatively, I don't think it's a coincidence that hardware developers have historically kept their first-party software exclusive to their own console. And expended considerable energy and treasure to acquire third-party exclusives.

Oh yeah, and you're also either expending Nintendo's already stretched development resources thinner by forcing them to port the games to different hardware architectures, or trusting third-parties to maintain Nintendo's reputation by not delivering technically shoddy ports.

To summarize: as the only existing hardware maker whose first-party software shifts a ludicrous amount of units, Nintendo is saving more money in unpaid royalties each console generation than the GDP of some third-world nations. They also currently rake in significant royalties from third-parties as it is. There is not a shred of evidence I can see to indicate that going multi-platform would actually triple, or even double, Nintendo's software sales, but we can infer from the data that doing so would very likely lead to a notable decline in Nintendo hardware sales.

Simply put, I'm not at all burdened to show that going multi-plat would lead to their games selling less. On the contrary, Michael Pachter has the burden of giving some evidence that going mutli-plat will actually double (and you, triple) Nintendo's software sales, and that it will not significantly damage Nintendo's bottom line in the form of reduced hardware sales, higher royalty costs, and an even bigger decrease in third-party titles for its own systems.