But it won't be, that's the thing.

And with the estimated cost of the production of the game (>$100 million) you'd need to sell around 20 million copies to break even, at the very minimum. The PS4 will likely not have a 20 million install base when the game releases (Late 2014?) so making it PS4 exclusive makes no sense from a business perspective at the very least.

we no longer know what the game looks like. 2 added years in developement could see a completely overhauled gameplay system. Possibly akin to FFXII, seeing that game already action elements and one coherent world (no random encounters/seperate battle arena's)

Well it sure as hell won't be a launch title and even if it was, the attach rate would near enough be 1:1 in Japan and pretty high everywhere else.

It'll probably be released late 2014, probably giving it a userbase of 12m. FFX was released during a silimar time on the ps2 and sold 6million units. If the title is good, it will have legs well beyond its initial release. If the combat is more action also expect to reach to a audience much wider then what is typical for FF. And finally, sony is covering some of the cost since they are "co-developing" it.

Of course we'll have to wait till E3 to see if there is any truth in any of this.

If production values are really this high (which I doubt).  That could be the reason why Sony is co-developing it.

Honestly, I can't see Square-enix making games that cost this much. 

SE gets $5 per game? lol yeah right. Most people throw $30 dollars figure around for a $60 game... yet KH just launched at over $70 and Far Cry is selling at over $80. Also, ps4 will be more DD centric cutting out retailers and a bunch of costs associated with hard copies.

was buying a ps4 day one anyways, but if this rumor is true, then this is a sweet bonus. it will move systems no doubt.

My apologies, my maths was off. 

So people are throwing $150 million, which is probably right. The game is $70, so SE gets $30 per game roughly. That's still 5 million needed and that's a lot on a system with no install base, but even then $30 is probably too high if FFXIII failed to make money.

AGHHHHHHHH. I'm sick of hearing this!

Releasing a game on a newly launched console doesn't stop people from buying the game in the future. Look at Metal Gear Solid 4 on the PS3, Final Fantasy X on PS2 and so on, both early launching games that went on to become some of the best selling games on the system. In fact, sequels that release nearer the end of a console generation can often end up doing worse.

Also, that $150 million figure sounds like bullshit, they haven't had a full team working on the game for the past 7 years, and they sure as hell aren't being paid to twiddle their thumbs. With all the delays and changes, I wouldn't be surprised if it's a hefty sum, but $150 million is pushing it. Even if that is the worst case scenario, 5 million units sounds possible if the PS4 is a reasonable success and Square Enix really push the game and rebrand it as Final Fantasy XV. Final Fantasy XIII was quite poorly recieved by fans and it still managed to sell 5 million on a 3rd place console as a multiplatform title.

And even then, making it multiplatform can't guarantee significantly more sales and profit, especially if Sony is giving them incentives.

How is it probably right? Because unreliable random people on a forum said so? I doubt the game cost anywhere near that especially since SE delayed versus development to focus on FF13-2 and FF13-LR. Versus hasn't been in development that long even though it may seem like it (Just like GT5 because they shifted focus for GT:PSP at one point before going back to GT5)

the 5 million number is just as much bullshit as the 150million number. It's probably more like 2.5mil in Japan and the west would be profit.

Why? $30 per $60 goes to SE. SE will sell this at more than $70 though. Also, DD will be bigger when launched than it is now. That cuts out manufacturing, packaging, shipping, and retailer costs. I wouldn't be surprised if SE got at least $40 per game in Japan... Now Japan won't reach that 150mil mark (even though rumor says 120... for some reason this budget keeps going up and up *cough*forumpostersspeculationwithnoclue*cough*) but it could get close to the 100mil mark