Oh no I was saying how some of the expected system movers for the Wii U may not do as well as they did for the Wii for several reasons especially when you compare the amount of units game X in proportion to the amount of consoles sold. For example SSBB may have sold well on the wii but generally speaking it only sold at an adoption rate of ~12%. 

I would like to think that the exclusives will drag in new customers but I don't believe they will. It is very unlikely (as you indicated) that Mario Kart Wii U will sell 20m copies. I would go as far as to say that I doubt any Nintendo exclusives will have superior sales on the wii u in comparison to the wii. Not even close.

There is absolutely no gaurantee that those that bought Nintendo's exclusives last time around will by them on the wii u. None. Then again they might but I doubt it, I just hope it.

PS3 is major a third-party console and the wii u is likely NOT going to be. That's the major difference between the two as far as I see it.

Back to the main topic, Nintendo is far from out. They have taken a few knocks and any intelligent person can see this. A knock however is not a killer blow.

People that carry on believing that wii u is in good place are just as deluded than those that think it is dead.

We should all wait and see how well the top exclusives sell the wii u and how well the other two nextgen consoles perform in contrast to the wii u before we start to build a coffin.

That's the main reason I believe that the Japanese third parties will support the system better than Western ones.  If the WiiU is a Japanese third party machine instead of a Western/Eastern one, fine with me.  OT:  No, Nintendo is not out.  And frankly we don't even know WHAT is going to happen.  For all we know, they could very well be making talks with the other companies for collaborations.  Hey, there was even supposed to be a THIRD PARTY DIRECT!  If they can pull that off with th usual first party exclusives, third parties will be apt to support the system more.

Besides, it's not like PS4 and 720 are going to have it any easier when both launch.

because i've seen the numbers.

wiiU had a fantastic first 4 weeks with weekly sales figures significantly above the ps3 and 360 but by week 6 has nose-dived to below even that of the vita, a console universally agreed about to be dead on arrival.

despite wiiU's early head start wiiU's cumulative sales has already fallen behind the ps3, only a couple weeks from falling behind the 360, and if trends continue will fall behind the vita by september.

so by the mathematical transitive property, if vita is dead and wiiU is selling worse than vita..

...and did you forget that the game cube had a mario kart, a smash bros, a zelda, a mario, a whatever you want to list?  nintendo had 1 good generation and it had nothing to do with any of the things you seem to think will save the wiiU.  the previous 2 gens nintendo was on the decline so there is precedence here.

Isn't that still better than the adoption rate of the best selling PS2 game.  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_PlayStation_2_video_games

yes. you are right ps2 sold 152 million units. but Matzy will come back with another response in favour for sony

In favour of Sony? I'm a PC gamer. Good job there.

I'm not sure why anyone has brought up the PS2...My point is if SSBB sold to only ~12% of Wii owners, what makes anyone think that it will suddenly cause an increase in Wii U sales? The figures just don't add up. 

Cleaning my post of BS eh? Well lets take a look at what I've said thus far...
"The console's sales are drastically low right now, but this is Nintendo. A pokemon game? Mario Kart? Super Smash Bros!? When these titles and others like them begin to launch, does anyone believe the sales will remain at the level that they are at?"
1st Claim: The consoles sales right now are very very low. This is indisputable, however the games - the system sellers - are not released yet. When the games come so will the sales.

"Why do you think this?  For those of you counting out Nintendo from 1st, or even 2nd place for next gen, maybe you should step back, take a breath, and relax. Who would've thought that the PlayStation would've destroyed the N64 like it did, or that the PS3 would recover from its situation in 06-08?"
2nd Claim: We shouldn't decide right now, what place a console will end up at come 6 years from now. If I told you the PS3 would have a difficult launch, many wouldn't believe me at the time. If I told you the WiiU would sell like it is now just months after launch, nobody would've believed me either.

"The generation is barely started, so before you count Nintendo out, remember that the PS4 and 720 are not even launched yet. Anything can happen. Have an open mind."
3rd Claim: Only Nintendo's console has launched, the PS4 has not, and we know next to no solid info on Microsoft's offering to next-gen. There are many unforeseen factors that will come into play in the next 6 years that we cannot foresee. It is simply to early to claim 3rd place for Nintendo for sure.

Seems like 3 reasonable points to make, in the sense that my only point was to try and dispel the sense of doom that has filled the forums surrounding the console. I am not making any sales predictions, I am simply saying it is too early for anyone on this earth to be certain of a 3rd place finish.

As for your points cleaning up my post:
"The wii was an "in" item. A lot of sales of the wii were to casuals, and casuals do not look to upgrade until the next "in" item arrives. Right now, said items are smartphones and tablets."
Yes you're absolutely right, it was an in item. But why does this doom Nintendo to 3rd place? Sure, this will impact sales in the sense that it will not sell like the Wii in 08, but this does not that it's all over for them.

"The PS had a much better library of games than the N64, ranging from the likes of GTA to FF. This is a common story for core consoles - the console with the best library wins."
Who won Generation 7? The Wii is sitting comfortably at 99 Million while currently selling next to nothing. Your best case scenario is that the PS3 and 360 catch up in a year or two if they can maintain their current level of sales... As for the best library of games, that is debatable depending on who you ask. My point was that before they launched, nobody would've thought an outside competitor would blow Sega and Nintendo away and sell over 100 million units, at least not in the first 3 months of the consoles launch. So I fail to see how your point is relevant in this situation.

"The PS3 has the advantage of bluray and has actually almost always sold more week-on-week compared to the 360. It was always just a matter of time."
It was not a matter of time due to bluray. For a while Bluray was not even the definitive format for media. For quite a while. And when the PS3 was down, nobody, (with any sense that is) would've claimed that it would bounce back to be on top in terms of weekly sales this far into the race.

"The issue is the Wii U has yet to demonstrate itself as next-gen; it's currently kicking out similar quality titles to much cheaper, established consoles."
As far as I could tell, it's barely kicked out any titles at all. It just launched, and is not drastically more powerful than the 360 and PS3, and thus has not had a chance to display its power. However none of that has anything to do with my point.

-----------------------

My point was that anyone who thinks they can predict a generations outcome less than half a year into the first consoles launch, when the other two consoles haven't launched at all is fooling themselves. Sure, a level of prediction in business is necessary, and can be done accurate when some semblance of the full picture is within view, but right now it is not. Maybe someone could claim Nintendo will fall in 3rd once the two toher consoles have launched and been out for a few months at least, but right now with limited info on consoles, games, and prices, it is impossible to do it accurately.

In simpler terms, why is everyone being so negative, when nobody knows for sure, and will not for sometime. I believe you were arguing against a point that I did not make, and failed to grasp what I was trying to convey, and I'm sorry if I did not make that clear enough in the OP

We all know he usually does. But that's okay, everyone here knows what he's like. He also forgot to mention Smash Melee sold over 7 million on GameCube's 21 million userbase, meaning an adoption rate of ~33%.

Also, Mario Kart's home console outings have consistenly had adoption rates of around 30%. ~33m to Wii's ~99m audience, ~7m to Gamecube's ~21m audience, ~10m to N64's ~33m... But, of course that's not important, and there are various very obvious reasons as to why those sales aren't really impressive, at all.

the other question is, why wouldn't it? it depends on how they are marketing it, how it looks like, how it plays. that's the same as why sony makes killzone 4 when the attach rate isn't so good imo. it's a franchise well known. known things sell better then completely new ones. and common sense should tell you that a new game increases automatically hardware sales a bit.

you are a fool if you think first party games on a Nintendo system don't have an impact on hardware sales. the attach rate could be even worse and they would still have an impact. 10 million potential buyers are 10 million potential buyers. the attach rate doesn't matter.

doesn't change the fact that games sell hardware. its not the other way around. nobody buys a console without games that interest him. The playstation series is an exception. sony always relied on optical formats to sell their consoles.