Hype is trying to built up again.
badgenome said:
Versus and Agito/type-0 are pretty clearly not spin offs. They were planned well before XIII released and are therefore not derivatives of XIII. They are all co-equal entries (in theory, since type-0's release was horribly mishandled and Versus' hasn't been handled at all) in the Fabula Nova Crystallis series. There are, as far as we know, no connections to the world or characters of XIII, so how is that a spin off? The vague idea that all the games are set in the same "universe", which was seemingly just Square's way of communicating that they are all part of the XIII compilation, is pretty flimsy evidence for that assertion. Anyway, it would be pretty strange for a spin off to be a more ambitious and far more expensive project than the main series. Dirge of Cerberus was a spin off. XIII-2 is a direct sequel, not a spin off.
The JRPG golden age is basically a myth. They were a niche genre then, and they remain a niche genre today. The only major system selling JRPGs then, as now, were Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest. Final Fantasy's decline is not indicative of a general loss of interest in JRPGs but of Square's terrible, terrible mismanagement of the series. The fact that the most prominent series has stumbled so badly gives the illusion that JRPGs as a whole are in decline, but there are actually more JRPGs being released now than there were in the '90s. Versus is well past the point of no return. There is no way they can just can it at this point, and even if they could it would be approximately the worst idea ever. Square already has a lot of rehabbing to do of the series' reputation, and this would be more than a mere setback. They've already said that another disaster like XIV could kill the company. The backlash from such a move would probably do just that. Making it a PS4 exclusive is really not any riskier than making it a PS3 exclusive, and it's certainly less risky than not making it at all. |
Dirge of Cerberus was a spin off. XIII-2 is a direct sequel, not a spin off.
I see your point. So you consider it a sequel? Either way, XIII-2 sold poorly in comparison to XIII. Less than half. It is still related too XIII by name and universe.
The JRPG golden age is basically a myth. They were a niche genre then, and they remain a niche genre today.
Sorry, but you're way, way off there. Even though more consoles sold this gen, look at Final Fantasy sales through all the generations.
http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=final+fantasy
There is only 2 in the top 10. One of them is on a handheld. In fact, the top 3 alone beat out FFXIII combined on ps3 and 360. There was a golden era. They sold more because they were better in most peoples minds, a lot newer and fresher to people who haven't played JRPG's before either. Nearly 10,000,000 sales for VII on ps1 is niche? That would make CoD niche or Halo, or basically every game ever apart from Mario on NES which sold a whopping 40 million copies.
| ironmanDX said: Sorry, but you're way, way off there. Even though more consoles sold this gen, look at Final Fantasy sales through all the generations. |
So... you're agreeing with me that install base doesn't really matter, then?
| ironmanDX said: There is only 2 in the top 10. One of them is on a handheld. In fact, the top 3 alone beat out FFXIII combined on ps3 and 360. There was a golden era. They sold more because they were better in most peoples minds, a lot newer and fresher to people who haven't played JRPG's before either. Nearly 10,000,000 sales for VII on ps1 is niche? That would make CoD niche or Halo, or basically every game ever apart from Mario on NES which sold a whopping 40 million copies. |
I didn't say that Final Fantasy was niche. I said that JRPGs are. Final Fantasy is the exception, a single franchise in the genre that managed to gain mass market appeal. You ought not to conflate its decline, which is entirely due to mismanagement, with the decline of the entire genre. The genre is not in decline; Final Fantasy is.
So apparently FF13 was already 70$ in Japan. If SE release this Ps4 exclusive in 2014 they could easily make their money back in Japan alone. $80 at launch + special edition + online downloads. They could easily get 80mil back in Japan first week with another 40mil 2nd week
| Max King of the Wild said: So apparently FF13 was already 70$ in Japan. If SE release this Ps4 exclusive in 2014 they could easily make their money back in Japan alone. $80 at launch + special edition + online downloads. They could easily get 80mil back in Japan first week with another 40mil 2nd week |
You seem to be ignoring the fact they still need to market the game, wich will be another $50-120m world wide (basic rule of thumb in the gaming industry is you spend at least as much marketing the game as you spend making it with big games like COD spending far more on marketing). Also Japan is increadibly front loaded Final Fantasy XIII went from 1,464,964 week one to 179,951 week 2 for example currently at 1,865,958 LTD, so you would be looking at a ~10m second week if they do 80m week one.
@TheVoxelman on twitter
zarx said:
|
Did I forget that? 50-120mil WW means 10-20mil in Japan... so they break even with entire development and Japans marketing in Japan alone and the rest of the world just needs to cover marketing. That rule of thumb is the most retarded thing I've heard. The rule of thumb is have your economist do a function of costs and find the optimal cost to maximize return. There is a rule of deminishing returns that says at certain point more marketing would just mean your spending more money.
I may have over exagerated the length it would take but the majority (95%) of those 1.9mil were at full price (obviously you just need to look at FW compared to total) so that means 95mil in Japan alone. Left to make up ~50mil in the rest of the world which would be a piece of cake.
Also, I'd like to add that FF13 was crap game and I would like to believe that the next FF (which this rumor claims to be) would do much better in terms of sales in Japan like the series usually does.
| Max King of the Wild said: Also, I'd like to add that FF13 was crap game and I would like to believe that the next FF (which this rumor claims to be) would do much better in terms of sales in Japan like the series usually does. |
What makes you think this one won't be crap? Doesn't look like it, but FF XIII also looked good on trailers and demos and it end up sucking. You simple can't be sure the game will be amazing until you have it in your hands, especially when SE has such a bad record.
Nintendo and PC gamer
osed125 said:
What makes you think this one won't be crap? Doesn't look like it, but FF XIII also looked good on trailers and demos and it end up sucking. You simple can't be sure the game will be amazing until you have it in your hands, especially when SE has such a bad record. |
You don't know much about Versus do you? From their anouncements I've seen more people excited for this one more than FF13.
Max King of the Wild said:
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So? that doesn't mean the game will be good. Sure, it will sell well during it's first week but after that when gamers start hearing that the game sucks (plus the reviews) then those gamers will not buy the game. Similar to what zarx said where FF XIII sold 1.4m units first week and then 170k second week. The hype for this games (if it's bad) will only last for 1 week, after that the sales will drop down heavily.
Keep in mind I'm not saying the game will suck, but given Square's record plus the extremely long development time (this most of the times hurts games in one way or another) we can't warranty the game will be good.
Nintendo and PC gamer
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