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Forums - Microsoft - Michael Pachter chooses the Xbox to win the next generation

 

Well....

PS4 1st place confirmed? 627 84.96%
 
The Oracle knows it all!! 111 15.04%
 
Total:738
binary solo on 15 October 2014
DerNebel said:
binary solo said:
DerNebel said:
Well to be fair, before the Xbox One announcement plenty of people thought that MS was going to hit it out of the park and if we go even further back to 2012 or something then a lot of people thought that the next PS wouldn't stand a chance against the next Xbox at all, with phrases like "NA is now Xbox territory, the real battleground next gen will be Europe"-being thrown around, which turned out to be hilariously wrong.

Plenty of people who objectively analyse sales data and market trends? Or plenty of one-eyed Xbox fans?

My analysis was that Sony had learned a valuable and near fatal lesson with PS3 and they would not make the same mistakes again. They would launch alongside MS and they would be price competetive and make a machine that was easier for 3rd parties to develop on. Therefore Sony was more likely to regain customers and take market share off MS than the other way around. I thought MS was still likely to win UK and USA, but by much smaller margins and Sony was likely to increase its leads in almost all other markets. I think that would have been the case had MS not DRM'd its way out of consumer good will and hadn't cocked up on the hardware by throwing in Kinect and making a less powerful, bulkier and uglier machine more expensive. But because MS did all those things wrong PS4 even has the USA and the UK in its favour now.

It won't be until 2016 that there can be any certainty about whether or not PS4 will retain the number 1 position in the USA. But I think we can be confident that by early next year we'll know that PS4 will stay on top in the UK.

The only real danger to PS4 was Sony, and it remains a danger to PS4 until it gets its company-wide financial shit sorted out.

 

Prior to the PS4 reveal: Plenty of both.

After the PS4 reveal: Less of the analysts

After the X1 reveal: Hardly any analysts, less of the Xbox fanboys

Now: Only the most core Xbox fanboys still believe in a scenario where the X1 will end up on top.

Not the real analysts, just the try hards like Pachter. The position PS3 was in at the end of 2012 Sony just had to not screw up the launch and PS4 was the likely winner. PS3 sales represent more or less the core Sony fanbase. PS3 was Sony's epic fail. Contrast that with Nintendo's epic fail up to that point (GC) and the fact that 360 was MS's epic success. PS3 sold on par with 360, with one year less on market. And PS3 sold almost quadruple of Nintendo's epic fail console. So for Sony's epic fail console to sell over 80 million means the core PS fanbase is massive compared to the core fanbase of any other home console brand, only truly rivalled by Nintendo's handheld fanbase. Anyone who thought Xbox's core fanbase was as large as PS's on the basis of the 360's immense success compared to Xb og is a very poor analyst indeed.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

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XanderXT on 15 October 2014

I don't want to be in the dark future where Patcher is actually right about somrthing.



kljesta64 on 15 October 2014
bubblegamer said:
kljesta64 said:
bubblegamer said:

I can dig up some comments if you want

Weren't you banned those comments you made?


I was banned because I said the japanese are the only ones having a brain right now and it was not bashing sony but everything when it comes to consoles right now..and you just did something similar you always do in my thread LB3 vs CTTT a minute ago hahaa



Tsubasa Ozora

Keiner kann ihn bremsen, keiner macht ihm was vor. Immer der richtige Schuss, immer zur richtigen Zeit. Superfussball, Fairer Fussball. Er ist unser Torschützenkönig und Held.

bubblegamer on 15 October 2014
kljesta64 said:
bubblegamer said:
kljesta64 said:
bubblegamer said:

I can dig up some comments if you want

Weren't you banned those comments you made?


I was banned because I said the japanese are the only ones having a brain right now and it was not bashing sony but everything when it comes to consoles right now..and you just did something similar you always do in my thread LB3 vs CTTT a minute ago hahaa

What did i do then? Shall i type a lot of hahaha's to make it sound funnier too? how about a wink

Also why are you derailing this thread about something offtopic?



kljesta64 on 15 October 2014
bubblegamer said:
kljesta64 said:
bubblegamer said:
kljesta64 said:
bubblegamer said:

I can dig up some comments if you want

Weren't you banned those comments you made?


I was banned because I said the japanese are the only ones having a brain right now and it was not bashing sony but everything when it comes to consoles right now..and you just did something similar you always do in my thread LB3 vs CTTT a minute ago hahaa

What did i do then? Shall i type a lot of hahaha's to make it sound funnier too? how about a wink

Also why are you derailing this thread about something offtopic?


it was not me it was you heres what you said : "lol no matter what the subject, you like to bring up Sony. It's like you HAVE to." and then I posted after that



Tsubasa Ozora

Keiner kann ihn bremsen, keiner macht ihm was vor. Immer der richtige Schuss, immer zur richtigen Zeit. Superfussball, Fairer Fussball. Er ist unser Torschützenkönig und Held.

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DerNebel on 15 October 2014
binary solo said:
DerNebel said:

Prior to the PS4 reveal: Plenty of both.

After the PS4 reveal: Less of the analysts

After the X1 reveal: Hardly any analysts, less of the Xbox fanboys

Now: Only the most core Xbox fanboys still believe in a scenario where the X1 will end up on top.

Not the real analysts, just the try hards like Pachter. The position PS3 was in at the end of 2012 Sony just had to not screw up the launch and PS4 was the likely winner. PS3 sales represent more or less the core Sony fanbase. PS3 was Sony's epic fail. Contrast that with Nintendo's epic fail up to that point (GC) and the fact that 360 was MS's epic success. PS3 sold on par with 360, with one year less on market. And PS3 sold almost quadruple of Nintendo's epic fail console. So for Sony's epic fail console to sell over 80 million means the core PS fanbase is massive compared to the core fanbase of any other home console brand, only truly rivalled by Nintendo's handheld fanbase. Anyone who thought Xbox's core fanbase was as large as PS's on the basis of the 360's immense success compared to Xb og is a very poor analyst indeed.

Got any sources on that or are you just saying it because you believe it? The simple difference in financial strength of MS and Sony, coupled with the immense growth the Xbox experienced in the 7th gen compared to the PS' sharp decline, should have had a lot of professionals believe that the next Xbox would come out on top of the next PS console.



bubblegamer on 15 October 2014
kljesta64 said:
bubblegamer said:
kljesta64 said:
bubblegamer said:
kljesta64 said:
bubblegamer said:

I can dig up some comments if you want

Weren't you banned those comments you made?


I was banned because I said the japanese are the only ones having a brain right now and it was not bashing sony but everything when it comes to consoles right now..and you just did something similar you always do in my thread LB3 vs CTTT a minute ago hahaa

What did i do then? Shall i type a lot of hahaha's to make it sound funnier too? how about a wink

Also why are you derailing this thread about something offtopic?


it was not me it was you heres what you said : "lol no matter what the subject, you like to bring up Sony. It's like you HAVE to." and then I posted after that

You posted after that and kept up posting. It's like you're making it personal. You should refrain from doing that.



KLXVER on 15 October 2014

Maybe in the US, but not worldwide.



binary solo on 15 October 2014
TheAdjustmentBureau said:
Ms made a bad error with DRM.

However Sony is throwing it away right now. Driveclub is a shambles with its average reviews and broken online aspect of an online heavy game. The order has terrible previews. And my friends are struggling to justify their ps4 right now. They bought because of titles Luke driveclub and the order.

Microsoft just need to keep up the exclusives with good reviews. Indies are all coming so slowly ps4 is looking pretty much a 3rd party machine only atm. I only really see uncharted trying to compete with halo 5, quantum break and rise of the tomb raider. Bloodbourne is coming next year. Butsales will be low for that game as history shows.

Sony are throwing it all away.

That's some mighty wishful thinking there. Driveclub was a screw up, but despite Sony trying to make out like it is a major franchise, the fact of the matter is all Sony really needs to do for racing fans is not delay or otherwise screw up GT7. People were hoping for a fun game with DC, but not many people were really thinking it was going to be the premier racing exclusive for Sony. The fact that Polyphony has no association with Driveclub means SOny's racing fans still have plenty of trust in Sony to deliver the racing sim they want. We do want The Order to do well, but seriously this is a game coming from one of Sony's B-list studios and it's not a game Sony is actually hanging all its hopes on. But it'll probably still sell better than Quantum Break. As will Bloodborne most likely. The Souls series has a decent fanbase and also a pretty good PC fanbase. Bloodborne is the sort of game that a reasonable number of PC fans of the Souls series will decide to bite the bullet for and buy a PS4. Which means for a game of only modest popularity it will be a better system seller than most other games that get similar sales.

But in the end PS4 being the technically superior machine will mean PS4 will have the best console versions of 3rd party games, and that as much as anything will convince people to buy the PS4 over the Xb one.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

kljesta64 on 15 October 2014
bubblegamer said:
kljesta64 said:
bubblegamer said:
kljesta64 said:
bubblegamer said:
kljesta64 said:
bubblegamer said:

I can dig up some comments if you want

Weren't you banned those comments you made?


I was banned because I said the japanese are the only ones having a brain right now and it was not bashing sony but everything when it comes to consoles right now..and you just did something similar you always do in my thread LB3 vs CTTT a minute ago hahaa

What did i do then? Shall i type a lot of hahaha's to make it sound funnier too? how about a wink

Also why are you derailing this thread about something offtopic?


it was not me it was you heres what you said : "lol no matter what the subject, you like to bring up Sony. It's like you HAVE to." and then I posted after that

You posted after that and kept up posting. It's like you're making it personal. You should refrain from doing that.

I kept posting because you did I answered to your posts and you did to mine. it wasnt you it wasnt me it was the both of us.

we both deserve punishment. 

lets stop before we get banned for nothing this is leading to nowhere.



Tsubasa Ozora

Keiner kann ihn bremsen, keiner macht ihm was vor. Immer der richtige Schuss, immer zur richtigen Zeit. Superfussball, Fairer Fussball. Er ist unser Torschützenkönig und Held.