A Nintendo product hasn't sold this slowly in years so I don't think you can apply the same formula to this as to Wii/3DS/DS. But you're really relying on Nintendo do work some magic then, because if there is no price cut I can guarantee you that Vita will outsell WiiU this year with its price cut. 

Bold: I'd say Tearaway and Killzone are bigger than both. They don't count as commitment either I guess. What is this Sony Bend game though?

Regarding the recap:

No big games...okay. But I guess third party games don't count, like AC and the eventual CoD?
A Zelda remake counts as a big game...okay

The difference here is that WiiU will get a price cut late in the year, according to most opinions here, and the games too. Meanwhile, Vita's price has already been cut in Japan and the price cut in the West isn't far off (I'm betting on a big conference like E3).

Sony is clearly not shoving Vita aside since they announced the incredible PS4 - Vita interaction. Expect more when they talk about PS4 more. 

But please do cling to your hope of Nintendo turning things around one year later. They're going to be up against some of the fiercest competition they've ever had to deal with, at a time when WiiU hasn't remotely caught on with consumers.

I'm not sure how much you're expecting the WiiU to jump. Do you think it will jump from 20k to gangbuster numbers? There's a best time for everything, and a price cut and a game or two after almost a year of bad sales isn't going to be enough to overcome the Vita lead at that point.

Reserved for possible requests and future battles (PS4, X720).

Sony Bend is pretty much Sony's top developer for handheld games. They made Uncharted: Golden Abyss, so their next game is potentially another Uncharted. Killzone has potential, but probably gets lost in the hype for the upcoming Shadowfall on PS4. Tearaway is just weird and weird doesn't sell systems.

After last year's AC and CoD, why would you have high hopes for new installments?

Killzone is scheduled for September, until then the Vita has nothing big in the West. Whether Vita gets its price cut in spring or fall won't make much of a difference, because the Vita has virtually no games in spring/summer. There's just no reason to believe that a Vita price cut will do much in the West, especially because those people who wanted a Vita for $/€200 already had more than enough time to get one.

The announcement of PS4/PSV functionality is basically Sony's way of telling you that you shouldn't expect much Vita support in the future.

Actually, the Wii U's competition isn't as fierce as the Vita's, so that's another point that speaks against the Vita. On one hand you have two home consoles that will go through launch troubles while on the other hand you have a mature platform that is receiving its Pokémon game.

I don't expect the Wii U to do gangbusters, but it won't have to in order to beat the Vita. Can the Wii U sell more than 6-7m units in 2013? I believe so, because it isn't a high bar.

The 3DS will win against the PS4.

The 3DS will win against the 720.

The 3DS will win against the 360.

The 3DS will win against the PS3.

The 3DS will win against the PS Vita.

The 3DS will win against the Wii U.

3D always beats 2D in entertainment, from Movies, to Video Games.

End of story.

Why are you talking about American sales when the topic is worldwide sales? Of course you can't see Nintendo's first party games pushing hardware, because if you acknowledged that, then you wouldn't be able to convince yourself that Nintendo will get pushed out of the market. In another thread you argued that the PS4 and Nextbox will start out strong, here you argue that the PS3 and 360 will get price cuts. Apparently nothing can go wrong for Sony and Microsoft, the lower priced seventh generation consoles will only cut into Wii U sales, but not into PS4 and Nextbox sales. Here you argue that third parties won't put effort into Wii U multiplatform games because they will sell the least amount, in the other thread you argued that you are sure that third parties will go all out for their seventh/eighth gen multiplats to push PS4s and Nextboxes, even though the PS4 and Nextbox will have tiny installed bases. Now it would be understandable to take this stance, if you believed that third parties would do everything in their might to spite Nintendo, but in the past you mocked this very idea that you now rely on.

You misunderstood my comment on CoD and AC. It's not that I doubt that these IPs will continue to appear on the Vita, it's that I doubt they will sell anywhere close to Nintendo's first party games on the Wii U, thus Wii U's hardware sales will be notably higher.

I think you took my words out of context. The PS4/new xbox starting out strong does not mean some ungodly amount by March 2014, it just means it won’t suffer Nintendo's post-holiday slump because 1.  They won’t over ship like Nintendo did and 2. Their respective userbases will respond favorably to the first and 3rd parties titles launched for it.  I think both attaining 3.5-4 million by March with no revisions to their numbers and launching worldwide will be better received by investors than Nintendo's approach of overshooting shipments (5.5m) and bring down numbers constantly (probably 3.5m come this march) with massive software issues.  So yes, both next gen consoles will be fine starting out.

Don't know what my mentioning of the PS360 getting price cuts and the next xbox and PS4 have to do with anything.  Early adaptors and late adaptors buy consoles for different reasons, at different price points.  The two hardly mingle. The Wii U 50 dollars cheaper does not make it instantly favorable in the west against current gen consoles and in Japan the basic console is already on par price wise with PS3 currently so I don’t even know how much they will be able to cut since it’s not even competitive at its current price.

Ubisoft already mentioned that the PS4 version of Assassin's Creed will be the best.  Why would the company go out of their way to say a game for a console with a zero userbase is superior when you have the game releasing on a supposed next gen console with a userbase of 3 million and last gen userbase of 150m+? I’m in the camp of believing they want the next gen consoles to start out on a good footing. I’m sure once we get more information on games like Battlefield 4 and Destiny, they will mention the same.  As more and more companies state differences in prior gen and next gen games, it will entice those who already have current gen consoles who are early adaptors to go and make the switch.  The Nintendo conspiracy theorists will call it smiting, I don’t believe in the notion, I do believe that current sales of 3rd party Wii U games will dictate the quality game they get and if it’s cheaper to make the game based on PS360 then they will go that route.