saprano1 said: why is everybody (fanboys sony haters) saying ps3 wont sell a 100 million like they KNOW this as fact? LOL, all of sudden everybodys predicting sales like its there an sales analys. leave the BS to pachter, stop looking at current sales an using that as your proof,the ps2 price continued to go down before it hit 100 million.and what you guys still fail to see and ignore is the ps3 cost 4 and $500....and its selling well and its selling better than the 360. i not saying it is going to sell 100 million and im not saying its not,but i dont see why it cant seeing how it cost 4to$500 and its selling so well and they have yet to drop the price to $300 and $200.whats going to happen then? you guys should be carefull what you say, anything is possile,after all we all what happend after some people was so SURE that blu-ray was gonna fail.

The best way to predict the future is to look at the past:

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS3&reg1=Japan&cons2=GC&reg2=Japan&cons3=PS2&reg3=Japan&weeks=104

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS3&reg1=America&cons2=XB&reg2=America&cons3=PS2&reg3=America&weeks=104

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS3&reg1=Total+Other&cons2=PS2&reg2=Total+Other&cons3=PS2&reg3=Total+Other&weeks=104

Now, as you can see the only region the PS3 is selling at a similar rate to the PS2 is in the "Total Other" region ...

What you need to understand is this tells us a lot about the future of the PS3. The PS3 will probably fall (far) short of the exclusive third party support that the PS2 received, which will result in lower sales (compared to the PS2) in the future because there is less of a 'need' to buy a PS3 than a PS2; this acts as a feedback loop in both directions, which is why you rarely see two consoles that sell to (roughly) equal levels in a generation.

You simply can't make the assumption that when the PS3 hits the $200/$300 price level it will begin to sell like the PS2 did; the initial lower sales could mean that the massive third party support that was key to the PS2's success could be more evenly spread or focused on another platform.

saprano1 said: why is everybody (fanboys sony haters) saying ps3 wont sell a 100 million like they KNOW this as fact? LOL, all of sudden everybodys predicting sales like its there an sales analys. leave the BS to pachter, stop looking at current sales an using that as your proof,the ps2 price continued to go down before it hit 100 million.and what you guys still fail to see and ignore is the ps3 cost 4 and $500....and its selling well and its selling better than the 360. i not saying it is going to sell 100 million and im not saying its not,but i dont see why it cant seeing how it cost 4to$500 and its selling so well and they have yet to drop the price to $300 and $200.whats going to happen then? you guys should be carefull what you say, anything is possile,after all we all what happend after some people was so SURE that blu-ray was gonna fail.

You make excellent points and of course you're right that no one can predict what will happen (well maybe TheSource...)

The thing is that this thread is about 100 million, which is a ridiculously high amount. Like I said earlier: even Wii will have to work hard to make that. On a typical 6 year console cycle it would mean selling 16.6 million consoles a year. With already 2 holiday periods done PS3 hasn't even sold 12 million in total.

All your arguments also applied on Xbox, Gamecube, N64, Dreamcast etc. They all where technically ahead of their competitor and they all costed $100,- or less at a point in their lifetime, yet of all these mentioned none reached over 35 million in sales.
Yes consoles become cheaper. But the reason they become cheaper is to sustain sales levels when they are dropping. A price cut hardly leads to enormous sustained growth,cause that would mean lots of people are waiting on a price cut, which is generally not how consumer behaviour works.

I'm not saying PS3 won't be a success, but there's a huge difference between 35 million and 100 million. Right now PS3 is tracking slightly above the Gamecube. What I'm wondering is how people in this thread can even think about PS3 selling 80 million more than Gamecube?
The transition that is needed to reach such an enormous change in selling pattern is not something that just starts one day with x game or y game.
Let's say that GTA4 will sell 5 million PS3's (which is insane). It would mean you need 16 games the magnitude of GTA to reach something like that.

So whether PS3 will reach 40 million or 60 million would be a very interesting conversation, but 100 million is imo out of the question.

 

BengaBenga said: Some people really don't see that there are only 2 consoles ever to reach 100 million units. Hell even Wii will have a hard time reaching these kind of numbers.

 And all of you seem to ignorant to see the market expension happening right before your eyes.

 Nintendo is in the blue ocean of soccer mons, if they can mainting their interest and keep the hype who knows how far sales could go.

 That basicly leaves Sony and MS fighing for a potential give or take 180 million market, and things are not looking good for the 360 these days.  Well they havent in a long time.

 

 

RedArmia said: BengaBenga said: Some people really don't see that there are only 2 consoles ever to reach 100 million units. Hell even Wii will have a hard time reaching these kind of numbers. And all of you seem to ignorant to see the market expension happening right before your eyes. Nintendo is in the blue ocean of soccer mons, if they can mainting their interest and keep the hype who knows how far sales could go. That basicly leaves Sony and MS fighing for a potential give or take 180 million market, and things are not looking good for the 360 these days. Well they havent in a long time.

When you read my previous post you'll see that at least I've backed my opinions with facts.

Someone that seriously states that all current 24 million Wii owners are soccer moms is absolutely hilarious.
Soccer moms don't buy Resident Evil, they don't buy Zelda and they don't buy Brawl.

Last gen the total market was about 170 million (120 PS2, 20 Xbox, 20 GC and 10 DC). By far the majority of this 170 million were casual gamers. If you really think 360 and PS3 will share 180 miilion consoles you're going to be very dissapointed. 

Whether there will be market expansion remains to be seen, but if so it will be caused by casual gamers that will in majority go to Wii (Casual players are btw very diverse. Some like Mario, Brawl, Madden, GTA, WiiFit, licenced, etc). This is your general PS2 audience. WiiSports and WiiFit will cause a lot of PS2 owners to go Wii.

You won't believe me but it's a fact that most consoles are in family homes, with the main gamers being the kids between 8 and 16. Nothing changes from previous gen, except that mom and dad will play a little more often and will buy a game or two for themselves. 

BengaBenga said: You make excellent points and of course you're right that no one can predict what will happen (well maybe TheSource...) The thing is that this thread is about 100 million, which is a ridiculously high amount. Like I said earlier: even Wii will have to work hard to make that. On a typical 6 year console cycle it would mean selling 16.6 million consoles a year. With already 2 holiday periods done PS3 hasn't even sold 12 million in total. All your arguments also applied on Xbox, Gamecube, N64, Dreamcast etc. They all where technically ahead of their competitor and they all costed $100,- or less at a point in their lifetime, yet of all these mentioned none reached over 35 million in sales. Yes consoles become cheaper. But the reason they become cheaper is to sustain sales levels when they are dropping. A price cut hardly leads to enormous sustained growth,cause that would mean lots of people are waiting on a price cut, which is generally not how consumer behaviour works. I'm not saying PS3 won't be a success, but there's a huge difference between 35 million and 100 million. Right now PS3 is tracking slightly above the Gamecube. What I'm wondering is how people in this thread can even think about PS3 selling 80 million more than Gamecube? The transition that is needed to reach such an enormous change in selling pattern is not something that just starts one day with x game or y game. Let's say that GTA4 will sell 5 million PS3's (which is insane). It would mean you need 16 games the magnitude of GTA to reach something like that. So whether PS3 will reach 40 million or 60 million would be a very interesting conversation, but 100 million is imo out of the question.

(emphasis added)

I agree with most of your underlying logic, and certainly with your position on the particular question posed, but I don't fully agree with the bolded statements.

I don't think we know how much additional price cuts will benefit the PS3, as we have never seen a serious contender with the price tag it initially had, and the cheaper model is currently at the 360's launch price!  If by "enormous change" you simply meant "so monumentally huge as to make possible 100m lifetime sales" then never mind.

Also, I don't think that whether the PS3 will make it to (at least) 40 million is a very interesting question at all:  "Yes."  If by that statement you meant discussing whether it will make it to 40m as opposed to the higher number, then never mind, although I still think you'd be lowballing it by taking the 40m position.

This thread reminds me of an article I read a couple of months back about video game sales statistics.

According to a survey of video game console-owing households - 97% of them only purchased 1 system per generation while 3% owned more than one.

If that holds true - it's a good indication of the uphill battle that the PS3 will have to reach PS2 level sales.

You know... If for every million PS2 owning households that now bought a Wii - Sony can only hope to get 30,000 of those sales back - minus whatever the 360 takes away.

Though there is also the chance that the percentage will increase...

Prodigy_BE said: I said, they only overlap "just a little bit" Dude, and if you want to talk software sales. The only software that really sells on the Wii, is Nintendo own stuff. And to a lesser extent, that also goes for the DS. That's not good for devs either. All that "PS3 is dead crap" is no different than the "blu-ray will never win" and MGS4 is coming to Xbox" stuff. Wii has sold 5.8 million units in Japan, PS3 has sold 2.1, but is almost double the price. You do realize that Nintendo already played it's "cheap hardware" card, and Sony has yet to do that. PS3 has great technology to offer and was built to have a long lifespan. And the more the price goes down, the more people will buy it.

 Well Fishie still says it is =p.

Brainslug said: This thread reminds me of an article I read a couple of months back about video game sales statistics. According to a survey of video game console-owing households - 97% of them only purchased 1 system per generation while 3% owned more than one. If that holds true - it's a good indication of the uphill battle that the PS3 will have to reach PS2 level sales. You know... If for every million PS2 owning households that now bought a Wii - Sony can only hope to get 30,000 of those sales back - minus whatever the 360 takes away. Though there is also the chance that the percentage will increase...

 only 3%???

is this survey to be trusted? 

dsoverpsp said: Brainslug said: This thread reminds me of an article I read a couple of months back about video game sales statistics. According to a survey of video game console-owing households - 97% of them only purchased 1 system per generation while 3% owned more than one. If that holds true - it's a good indication of the uphill battle that the PS3 will have to reach PS2 level sales. You know... If for every million PS2 owning households that now bought a Wii - Sony can only hope to get 30,000 of those sales back - minus whatever the 360 takes away. Though there is also the chance that the percentage will increase... only 3%??? is this survey to be trusted?

 I wish I knew - it seemd crazy low to me too. Can't remember where I read the article either.

 

dsoverpsp said: Brainslug said: This thread reminds me of an article I read a couple of months back about video game sales statistics. According to a survey of video game console-owing households - 97% of them only purchased 1 system per generation while 3% owned more than one. If that holds true - it's a good indication of the uphill battle that the PS3 will have to reach PS2 level sales. You know... If for every million PS2 owning households that now bought a Wii - Sony can only hope to get 30,000 of those sales back - minus whatever the 360 takes away. Though there is also the chance that the percentage will increase... only 3%??? is this survey to be trusted?

Found it - not the same exact article but but one refering to the same survey conducted by NPD

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=18107