| saprano1 said: why is everybody (fanboys sony haters) saying ps3 wont sell a 100 million like they KNOW this as fact? LOL, all of sudden everybodys predicting sales like its there an sales analys. leave the BS to pachter, stop looking at current sales an using that as your proof,the ps2 price continued to go down before it hit 100 million.and what you guys still fail to see and ignore is the ps3 cost 4 and $500....and its selling well and its selling better than the 360. i not saying it is going to sell 100 million and im not saying its not,but i dont see why it cant seeing how it cost 4to$500 and its selling so well and they have yet to drop the price to $300 and $200.whats going to happen then? you guys should be carefull what you say, anything is possile,after all we all what happend after some people was so SURE that blu-ray was gonna fail. |
You make excellent points and of course you're right that no one can predict what will happen (well maybe TheSource...)
The thing is that this thread is about 100 million, which is a ridiculously high amount. Like I said earlier: even Wii will have to work hard to make that. On a typical 6 year console cycle it would mean selling 16.6 million consoles a year. With already 2 holiday periods done PS3 hasn't even sold 12 million in total.
All your arguments also applied on Xbox, Gamecube, N64, Dreamcast etc. They all where technically ahead of their competitor and they all costed $100,- or less at a point in their lifetime, yet of all these mentioned none reached over 35 million in sales.
Yes consoles become cheaper. But the reason they become cheaper is to sustain sales levels when they are dropping. A price cut hardly leads to enormous sustained growth,cause that would mean lots of people are waiting on a price cut, which is generally not how consumer behaviour works.
I'm not saying PS3 won't be a success, but there's a huge difference between 35 million and 100 million. Right now PS3 is tracking slightly above the Gamecube. What I'm wondering is how people in this thread can even think about PS3 selling 80 million more than Gamecube?
The transition that is needed to reach such an enormous change in selling pattern is not something that just starts one day with x game or y game.
Let's say that GTA4 will sell 5 million PS3's (which is insane). It would mean you need 16 games the magnitude of GTA to reach something like that.
So whether PS3 will reach 40 million or 60 million would be a very interesting conversation, but 100 million is imo out of the question.
