Will PS3 top 100 million?

[Final-Fan]

BengaBenga said:
You make excellent points and of course you're right that no one can predict what will happen (well maybe TheSource...)

The thing is that this thread is about 100 million, which is a ridiculously high amount. Like I said earlier: even Wii will have to work hard to make that. On a typical 6 year console cycle it would mean selling 16.6 million consoles a year. With already 2 holiday periods done PS3 hasn't even sold 12 million in total.

All your arguments also applied on Xbox, Gamecube, N64, Dreamcast etc. They all where technically ahead of their competitor and they all costed $100,- or less at a point in their lifetime, yet of all these mentioned none reached over 35 million in sales.
Yes consoles become cheaper. But the reason they become cheaper is to sustain sales levels when they are dropping. A price cut hardly leads to enormous sustained growth,cause that would mean lots of people are waiting on a price cut, which is generally not how consumer behaviour works.

I'm not saying PS3 won't be a success, but there's a huge difference between 35 million and 100 million. Right now PS3 is tracking slightly above the Gamecube. What I'm wondering is how people in this thread can even think about PS3 selling 80 million more than Gamecube?
The transition that is needed to reach such an enormous change in selling pattern is not something that just starts one day with x game or y game.
Let's say that GTA4 will sell 5 million PS3's (which is insane). It would mean you need 16 games the magnitude of GTA to reach something like that.

So whether PS3 will reach 40 million or 60 million would be a very interesting conversation, but 100 million is imo out of the question.

(emphasis added)

I agree with most of your underlying logic, and certainly with your position on the particular question posed, but I don't fully agree with the bolded statements.

I don't think we know how much additional price cuts will benefit the PS3, as we have never seen a serious contender with the price tag it initially had, and the cheaper model is currently at the 360's launch price!  If by "enormous change" you simply meant "so monumentally huge as to make possible 100m lifetime sales" then never mind.

Also, I don't think that whether the PS3 will make it to (at least) 40 million is a very interesting question at all:  "Yes."  If by that statement you meant discussing whether it will make it to 40m as opposed to the higher number, then never mind, although I still think you'd be lowballing it by taking the 40m position.