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HappySqurriel on 22 April 2008
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saprano1 said:
why is everybody (fanboys sony haters) saying ps3 wont sell a 100 million like they KNOW this as fact? LOL, all of sudden everybodys predicting sales like its there an sales analys. leave the BS to pachter, stop looking at current sales an using that as your proof,the ps2 price continued to go down before it hit 100 million.and what you guys still fail to see and ignore is the ps3 cost 4 and $500....and its selling well and its selling better than the 360. i not saying it is going to sell 100 million and im not saying its not,but i dont see why it cant seeing how it cost 4to$500 and its selling so well and they have yet to drop the price to $300 and $200.whats going to happen then? you guys should be carefull what you say, anything is possile,after all we all what happend after some people was so SURE that blu-ray was gonna fail.

The best way to predict the future is to look at the past:

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS3&reg1=Japan&cons2=GC&reg2=Japan&cons3=PS2&reg3=Japan&weeks=104

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS3&reg1=America&cons2=XB&reg2=America&cons3=PS2&reg3=America&weeks=104

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS3&reg1=Total+Other&cons2=PS2&reg2=Total+Other&cons3=PS2&reg3=Total+Other&weeks=104

Now, as you can see the only region the PS3 is selling at a similar rate to the PS2 is in the "Total Other" region ...

What you need to understand is this tells us a lot about the future of the PS3. The PS3 will probably fall (far) short of the exclusive third party support that the PS2 received, which will result in lower sales (compared to the PS2) in the future because there is less of a 'need' to buy a PS3 than a PS2; this acts as a feedback loop in both directions, which is why you rarely see two consoles that sell to (roughly) equal levels in a generation.

You simply can't make the assumption that when the PS3 hits the $200/$300 price level it will begin to sell like the PS2 did; the initial lower sales could mean that the massive third party support that was key to the PS2's success could be more evenly spread or focused on another platform.