To me it depends on how long the generation last so I will list three possibilities

1) 5 years= 55- 60 million units

2) 7 years= 75- 80 milliom units

3) 10 years= 95-105 Million units

I believe the second possibilities is the most likely. I would personally dread the first possibilitie I love being able to have one system last at least seven years. buying a new console every 5 years would just be to expanisive exspecially when you want a game on every system. For me the third possibility would be the one I would enjoy the most.

Nope.

Sigh, how hard is it for you guys to see. Just do some simple math. At the current rate of 171,000 consoles a week for 52 weeks = 8.9 million

so about 9 mil a year for 8 years = 72 million

take into account that the price will come down and there will be better games coming out. It is safe to assume about 200,000 in sales worldwide a week probably around august of this year and continuing on until the end.

200k a week x 52 weeks = 10.4 mil a year.

so we're looking at around 80-90 mil by 2016. I personally believe it will sell 100m because it will be the platfrom of choice from 2009 and beyond.

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=Total+Other&cons2=PS3&reg2=Total+Other&cons3=X360&reg3=Total+Other&weeks=156

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS3&reg2=Japan&cons3=X360&reg3=Japan&weeks=156

 http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=America&cons2=PS3&reg2=America&cons3=X360&reg3=America&weeks=156

 How are these 3 graphs possible??? I thought the PS3 was selling like the PS2?? The PS2 was NOT released in all territories at the same time. It was Japan only for a long time. Your graph is absolutely worthless!!

 OH GOD MY EYES ARE BLEEDING

 Seriously, seeing statistics raped like that is just painful. I mean DEAR GOD.

First I saw that you were assuming that the console would sell at a steady rate for the next ten years. Not going to happen! Then you claimed it was going to sell at an even higher rate for the next ten years. ARGH.

Seriously, posts like this turn innocent people into violent mass murderers. 

last year everybody was talking about how the ps3 would be a distant 3rd.
its already outselling the 360 with minimal effort(high price tag, none of the big games have been released).
it will start to outsell the Wii in begin/mid 2009 all the AAA have been released and if when the price is dropped to 250 $.
you people seem to forget that the ps3 costs 400 dollar/euro and therefore has almost no casual gamers.
the casual gamers who want a Wii are buying one(its cheap), the ones who want a ps3 will wait till its lower than 300$
you can call me a fanboy but it will happen.
wii reaching 180 mil will however never ever happen.
the ps3 will reach at least 80 million.

 You seem to forget that casuals don't buy consoles because of a low price tag. They buy a console because of Media hype, specific games they want and based on the console all their friends have. That said console is not and will never be the PS3.

"Will PS3 top 100 million?"

Joke thread?

I won't ever in my life argue with CrazzyMan again.

For the other posters:

1) 1st year PS2 is 12 months Japan + 5 months America + 4 months Europe. 1st year PS3 = 12 months Japan + 12 months america + 7 months Europe.

2) People need to be realistic about what games can do for a system. MGS4 will certainly sell very well, but say it sells 6 million, how many consoles do you expect it to boost. I'd say 2 million on the high end. That's very big, but to reach 100 million it needs at least 20 MGS4's.

3) I don't understand how people believe that LBP will suddenly cause casual gamers to adopt the PS3. Sure it looks to become an awesome game, but it is in no way capable of competing with WiiSports and WiiFit. The casual crowd belongs to Wii, there's no stopping that. Just look at the sales of crappy licenced games. High School Musical is on its way to reach 1 million on Wii. People argue that only crap sells on Wii, but in fact it's a sign of the PS2 casuals having a Wii.

4) To reach 100 million PS3 needs to do much better in the US and Japan. I think everyone knows who will benefit most from GTA4 in the States. In Japan PS3's situation is even worse.

5) As it looks right now Sony has only 2 really big games in 2008. GTA4 and MGS4. It will compete with the Wii and 360 in November/December with no killers at all. FF13 and GT5 should have been there and I seriously don't understand why Sony hasn't done anything in their power to ensure a great holiday line-up.

6) Every developer thought PS3 would win this gen hands down. So everyone had big games ready. Now evreyone has to rethink their business strategy. It is clear that the developers originally didn't intend to do much on Wii, but now will make serious efforts for it. Everyone that thinks Wii does not compete with PS3 must at least admit that they are competing for the limited funds developers can invest. Right now we see more and more announcements for Wii. Every big game, like Monster Hunter and Fatal Frame, that is made for Wii extracts funds that could have been invested in a PS3 game.

So, no PS3 will never reach 100 million. The games aren't there and they don't have the momentum. What's worse is that they are seriously behind in the two most important game markets.

no - not even close