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BengaBenga on 21 April 2008
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I won't ever in my life argue with CrazzyMan again.

For the other posters:

1) 1st year PS2 is 12 months Japan + 5 months America + 4 months Europe. 1st year PS3 = 12 months Japan + 12 months america + 7 months Europe.

2) People need to be realistic about what games can do for a system. MGS4 will certainly sell very well, but say it sells 6 million, how many consoles do you expect it to boost. I'd say 2 million on the high end. That's very big, but to reach 100 million it needs at least 20 MGS4's.

3) I don't understand how people believe that LBP will suddenly cause casual gamers to adopt the PS3. Sure it looks to become an awesome game, but it is in no way capable of competing with WiiSports and WiiFit. The casual crowd belongs to Wii, there's no stopping that. Just look at the sales of crappy licenced games. High School Musical is on its way to reach 1 million on Wii. People argue that only crap sells on Wii, but in fact it's a sign of the PS2 casuals having a Wii.

4) To reach 100 million PS3 needs to do much better in the US and Japan. I think everyone knows who will benefit most from GTA4 in the States. In Japan PS3's situation is even worse.

5) As it looks right now Sony has only 2 really big games in 2008. GTA4 and MGS4. It will compete with the Wii and 360 in November/December with no killers at all. FF13 and GT5 should have been there and I seriously don't understand why Sony hasn't done anything in their power to ensure a great holiday line-up.

6) Every developer thought PS3 would win this gen hands down. So everyone had big games ready. Now evreyone has to rethink their business strategy. It is clear that the developers originally didn't intend to do much on Wii, but now will make serious efforts for it. Everyone that thinks Wii does not compete with PS3 must at least admit that they are competing for the limited funds developers can invest. Right now we see more and more announcements for Wii. Every big game, like Monster Hunter and Fatal Frame, that is made for Wii extracts funds that could have been invested in a PS3 game.

So, no PS3 will never reach 100 million. The games aren't there and they don't have the momentum. What's worse is that they are seriously behind in the two most important game markets.