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Forums - Gaming Discussion - How I See Next Gen Playing Out

 

Who Do You See Winning Next Gen?

PS4 343 58.53%
 
NeXbox 71 12.12%
 
Wii U 104 17.75%
 
They Will All Have ~33% Marketshare 66 11.26%
 
Total:584
Train wreck on 24 February 2013
RolStoppable said:
thismeintiel said:

While the was PS3 down ~950K throughout the year up to the pricecut, but this was mostly due to MS dropping the 360's entry price to $199 in late '08, which again made the entry price for the PS3 $200 more than the 360. 

Actually, I've given you plenty of reasons the PS4 will be fine.  You have failed to give me any real reasons it will do poorly.

Nope, you haven't given any reasons why the PS4 will be fine. Your reasoning for PS4's success is pretty much identical to your reasoning for PSV's success. Specs, a supposedly great launch price and supposedly fantastic third party support.

I've made you aware that third parties will make their games multiplatform on seventh and eighth generation consoles. This pretty much puts the full responsibility for moving PS4s on Sony's first party and whatever exclusive deal they manage to get with third parties. I asked you what games you expect to be ready for launch, a question you have yet to answer. What reason is there for PS3 owners to buy an expensive PS4 when all the big third party games will still be on the PS3? Why would they upgrade to a PS4 when these games are merely PS3 games with higher resolutions and a handful of additional special effects? Why would anybody else choose to buy a PS4 over a PS3 or 360 for that matter?

If it comes down to Sony's first party, then why should anyone believe that the PS4 will be fine? Sony's first party has yet to play a major role in making any of their video game systems a success, so why would it be different this time around, especially after they've closed/restructured several of their studios in the past couple of years? The PSV is reliant on this first party support as well, but Sony's efforts haven't changed the fortunes of the handheld so far. Granted, on the PS4 they will use their first string developers, so the situation isn't going to be as bleak as on the PSV.

Consider this: Third parties aren't going to abandon the 360 and PS3 due to the tiny installed bases of next generation consoles. This will translate to rocky starts for the PS4 and Nextbox which in turn means that third parties will continue to bring their games to seventh generation consoles for a while longer. You should expect that it will take at least two years until third parties at large begin to make eighth generation consoles their lead platform to take full advantage of those systems. Until then there won't be much incentive for consumers to upgrade, because what we know of the PS4 and expect of the Nextbox is anything but exciting. We are going to see a repeat of the transition from the sixth to seventh generation, only this time around with lower sales levels.

Be my guest and explain how Sony will stagger their releases through 2014 to maintain their launch momentum for the PS4, a $400+ system.

The playstation 4 will be easier to develop for than the PS3 was, so many developers will be able to differentiate last gen and this gen's eye candy.  For the big eye candy titles such as Fifa, battlefield, Call of Duty, Madden, NBA2K, Assassin's Creed, etc this will cause a shift in sales from the PS3 to PS4 (and same with xbox).  Activision's CEO indicated that sales of COD will fall this year because of that (move to next gen and soft economy)

The PS4, unlike the Vita, will not have any glaring paywall for storage.  Unless magically announced, I dont see any extra cost the PS4 will have that is not optional.  Vita main problem then and now has been its memory cards (and lack of evergreen games)

I dont see a price war that Nintendo inicated with the Vita prematurely (and guaranteeing gen/gen handheld declines).  Both the xbox and PS4 will be price in line(xbox) or lower (PS4) than their prior gen counterparts.

This is Sony's launch titles for the PS3 (US, Japan was worse, Europe was better, 6 months later)

TitlePublisher
Blazing Angels: Squadrons of WWII Ubisoft
Call of Duty 3 Activision
Genji: Days of the Blade Sony Computer Entertainment
Madden NFL 07 EA Sports
Marvel: Ultimate Alliance Activision
Mobile Suit Gundam: Crossfire Namco Bandai
NBA 2K7 2K Sports
NHL 2K7 2K Sports
Resistance: Fall of Man Sony Computer Entertainment
Ridge Racer 7 Namco Bandai
Tiger Woods PGA Tour 07 EA Sports
Tony Hawk's Project 8 Activision

I mean they can piss a better lineup with that.

And my wildcard is Grand Theft Auto 5, even if they announce it multiplat with next gen consoles, if there is a glaring difference, itll add to the PS4 and Xbox numbers.



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NintendoPie on 24 February 2013
thismeintiel said:

My point was that a lot of people, including myself, thought that MS and Sony would drop their prices to help draw people away from the Wii U.  The fact that they didn't need to is very telling.  And the Wii U needs more than a few multiplats and a couple of first party games later this year to make it sell better than the 360 and PS3, both of which are outselling its WW sales in NA alone.  The only way the Wii U will start outselling the 360 and PS3 is if Wii U gets some games AND a $80-100 price cut (this is what combats the HW not being very appealing to the public.)  If it doesn't get both of those, then it will have to wait til the 360 and PS3 naturally decline until it can outsell them.

As I said in my previous post.  You don't go from selling like a dying console 2 months after launch to being the market leader.

Your first paragraph is just wrong but I'll skip over that...

I never said they would be a market leader. That would imply that the Wii U would sell better than the 3DS, which is a tough thing to do. But, the Wii U can and will rise up with it's sales and become a competitor with First Party titles and bundles. It shouldn't be too hard to get the Wii U to sell just as good as the PS3 or X360. And if the Wii U manages that it should easily manage to put a hold on the PS4 and NextBox's "gangbuster" sales.



Stefan.De.Machtige on 24 February 2013

At this moment, my money is still on the WiiU.

Microsoft could still be a contender in my opinion. It depends if they come with a mainstream price - the rumours point to no. But we'll see...



In the wilderness we go alone with our new knowledge and strength.

Train wreck on 24 February 2013

That's pretty much the same reasoning as thismeintiel's. People will jump on better graphics, $400 isn't too high, third parties will drive hardware sales. Also, did you forget that the PSV's launch lineup was superior to the PSP's?

You are pretty much banking on the idea that improved graphics will make people shell out significantly more money to play largely the same content. You bring up CoD as an eye candy title when hardcore gamers complain that Activision has been using the same engine for years, yet the masses kept buying the games, because they didn't mind the graphics. You bring up FIFA and Madden when it's clear that the PS4 won't launch in August/September where the vast majority of these games' sales happen. The third party games you mentioned won't drive hardware sales in the initial year and it's going to take cheaper consoles to make people buy into the next generation.

The PSP did not have a memory card problem and also had a huge 3rd party game in Grand Theft Auto that came out about 6 months later (which i think was annoucned for E3 2005 only 2month ish after the PSP launch in NA, so that had an anctipited game to look for.  Also it was a brand new handheld offered by Sony, offered multimedia functions that were not available at the time (without buying multiple devices) and was riding the success of the PS2, completely different from the Vita today.

While the overall gameplay of call of duty has remain fairly unchanged, im sure if you were to pop in a copy of COD3 from 2006 and COD BO2 from last year, you would see a clear difference in graphics (there is even subtle differences between the Wii U version and the PS360), im sure with new hardware they will show clear differences and that would be enough to move hardware.

Madden 06 had a 55% attach rate for the 360 the year it was launch in the US, which was several months after the PS2 and Xbox versions, pretty much used the same PS2 engine (but better graphics and had less features than the PS2 and Xbox) and cost 10 dollars more.  If it looks better than current consoles, games like Fifa and madden will help sell systems (as they already shown)

Rumors abound that Microsoft especially (since they have the program in place already), but I can see Sony doing it also, plan on offering a subsidy for their next gen console through their respective online services.  While this would eat into current gen sales (Sony keeps the PS3 at current prices), this could eliminate the 400 dollar console problem.



thismeintiel on 24 February 2013
RolStoppable said:
platformmaster918 said:

Sony home consoles and portables are incomparable imo.  They've had 2 portables and their most successful one sold just 1/2 of its competitor.  They've had 3 home consoles with 2 being dominant market leaders and one on pace to be near 100m by the time it stops selling.

I also take issue with your statement that Sony first party has had no influence on their systems.  The PS3 gave no reason for consumers to buy it (more expensive and late compared to the system it was directly opposing with shoddy third party support and sub par online features at first) other than free online and its first party games yet it has outpaced the 360's sales and is probably going to reach at least 90m sales lifetime.  By process of elimination it's one of the two and I've personnally sold 3 people on PS3 just by showing them the first party games.  If anything Sony's biggest flaw is advertising, or advertising poorly with no features listed or gameplay showed,  its games.  Hopefully that will be fixed this upcoming gen.  I see nothing but an upward trend for Playstation this trend with most of these handicaps from last gen either being greatly reduced or non-existent.

I said "no major role", not "no influence".

I'll offer you an alternative for why the PS3 outpaced the 360 in launch aligned worldwide sales: The 360 was never a global console, it only made big inroads in the USA and UK. It was virtually non-existent in Japan and always had problems to sell well in mainland Europe. Brand definitely played a bigger role than free online and first party games, especially in Japan where neither online gaming and Sony first party games are really popular.

Don't forget that both, the 360 and PS3, were struggling at their $400+ price points. That's the most important thing here, because both companies are preparing to launch expensive systems again.

You just explained why the PS4 will do better than the NeXbox.  The Playstation brand is globally appealing.  Yea, MS MAY take NA and UK again, but the gaps there will not be as big.  In EU and Japan, mostly Japan, they are probably not even going to give the NeXbox a second thought.  Not without the year launch gaps and $200 price difference.  And Nintendo seems to have singlehandedly taken the Wii U out of the running for 1st.  Especially if they are sticking with the "no pricecut" line for most of 2013.

Oh, and 360 launched at $299, not over $400.  Research, my firend. 



 

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haxxiy on 24 February 2013

I think the PS4 will likely win since Sony seems in for the bulk of the 150m market of the PS2 and PS360. That is, unless Nintendo or Microsoft suddenly recapture the magic that attracted millions of casuals who are know happy with their iPads and iPhones.



 

 

 

 

 

YukanaSenix on 24 February 2013

PS4 will win
This time there isn't a competition

Sony is doing as it looks like everything right with the PS4
They fixed all the problems and mistakes they made with the developers and got complete 3rd Party Support.
Their Launch Lineup looks a lot better compared to the one of the PS3(just saw what was available a few pages before this one and it was piss poor)
The Price will be reasonable and they won't start a year later with bad multiplats.They are used as the leader in this Gen cause they stand for gaming and their community is interested in every genre and accepts new innovations a lot better.They also have the far superior hardware and games directly from the start to show of.
They have the far bigger 1st and 2nd Party Lineup for REAL Games(not motion stuff) and are future proof with Gaikai.
Apps and stuff will add to the experience.Would be interesting to see if they can get the Football Worldcup 2014 aired over their service in 4k(Japan is airing it in 4k and probably some others will too over paytv)
Netflix has for example the best experience on the PS3 and they will continue to get support.

The only "fight" will be in the USA
But i think Sony did good with stealing the "new" CoD aka Destiny away from Microsoft.
This will be an important franchise if they have the better version with the probably better and more customer friendly online service as they already have right now(fact).
Bungie is/was something like the Holy Graal to the XBox Community - They wouldn't exist without Halo and now they betrayed them.Especially after Destiny was rumored to be a timed exclusive franchise for Microsoft.
Halo and CoD will still go strong but i think this time Sony can counter it a lot better and directly from the start with the support they have right now.
And i think MIcrosoft can't "steal" anything away from Sony this time.Most of the developers went already Multiplat especially Japanese ones and some of them failed and lost everything including their reputation and fanbase cause they changed their games so much(Capcom),sell insanely better on the Sony Platform(SquareEnix stuff) or went back to Sony(Bamco and co)
There won't be a surprice effect like "OMG this and that and everythingelse isn't exclusive anymore - Sony is doomed"

Even if the NextBox will win there(USA) the gap will be MUCH smaller than in this Gen and the other areas aren't even worth a talk over...Europe is Sony territory and so is Japan if Nintendo isn't getting their stuff together.



platformmaster918 on 24 February 2013
YukanaSenix said:
PS4 will win
This time there isn't a competition

Sony is doing as it looks like everything right with the PS4
They fixed all the problems and mistakes they made with the developers and got complete 3rd Party Support.
Their Launch Lineup looks a lot better compared to the one of the PS3(just saw what was available a few pages before this one and it was piss poor)
The Price will be reasonable and they won't start a year later with bad multiplats.They are used as the leader in this Gen cause they stand for gaming and their community is interested in every genre and accepts new innovations a lot better.They also have the far superior hardware and games directly from the start to show of.
They have the far bigger 1st and 2nd Party Lineup for REAL Games(not motion stuff) and are future proof with Gaikai.
Apps and stuff will add to the experience.Would be interesting to see if they can get the Football Worldcup 2014 aired over their service in 4k(Japan is airing it in 4k and probably some others will too over paytv)
Netflix has for example the best experience on the PS3 and they will continue to get support.

The only "fight" will be in the USA
But i think Sony did good with stealing the "new" CoD aka Destiny away from Microsoft.
This will be an important franchise if they have the better version with the probably better and more customer friendly online service as they already have right now(fact).
Bungie is/was something like the Holy Graal to the XBox Community - They wouldn't exist without Halo and now they betrayed them.Especially after Destiny was rumored to be a timed exclusive franchise for Microsoft.
Halo and CoD will still go strong but i think this time Sony can counter it a lot better and directly from the start with the support they have right now.
And i think MIcrosoft can't "steal" anything away from Sony this time.Most of the developers went already Multiplat especially Japanese ones and some of them failed and lost everything including their reputation and fanbase cause they changed their games so much(Capcom),sell insanely better on the Sony Platform(SquareEnix stuff) or went back to Sony(Bamco and co)
There won't be a surprice effect like "OMG this and that and everythingelse isn't exclusive anymore - Sony is doomed"

Even if the NextBox will win there(USA) the gap will be MUCH smaller than in this Gen and the other areas aren't even worth a talk over...Europe is Sony territory and so is Japan if Nintendo isn't getting their stuff together.

There is no guarentee, nor any strong indication, that Destiny will be the next COD.  Also it's a multiplat and like COD would only sell marginally better even with exclusive deals.  The war will be fought with exclusives and like you said Sony will keep theirs this time because they are first party games, but it's foolish to act like there's no other scenario.  Don't underestimate advertising because even though this new firm has been good so far, we'll see how they handle the new system.

I will say this though.  I love the direction Sony is taking by targeting the hardcore.  Anyone who has seen Jack Tretton on the news stations the last couple days will see that that is their message this gen.  He has been pointing out the differences between ipad games and Sony games and said that he hopes those people will migrate.  He also believes there ARE enough hardcore gamers to support the model which I believe is very true, especially if they can get some of that market back from MS.  Jack's message is music to my ears and Sony seems to finally be doing what fans have been asking for, giving us the hardcore gamer's machine.  Now WE just have to support that model so they continue to give us the rich, immersive, single player focused games that I loved from them this gen.  Thank you.  God bless you and god bless the United States of America.




Get Your Portable ID!Lord of Ratchet and Clank

Duke of Playstation Plus

Warden of Platformers

thismeintiel on 24 February 2013
RolStoppable said:
thismeintiel said:

You just explained why the PS4 will do better than the NeXbox.  The Playstation brand is globally appealing.  Yea, MS MAY take NA and UK again, but the gaps there will not be as big.  In EU and Japan, mostly Japan, they are probably no even going to give the NeXbox a second thought.  Not without the year launch gaps and $200 price difference.  And Nintendo seems to have singlehandedly taken the Wii U out of the running for 1st.  Especially if they are sticking with the "no pricecut" line for most of 2013.

Oh, and 360 launched at $299, not over $400.  Research, my firend. 

Beating the Nextbox doesn't equal doing fine though. What I've maintained in this thread is that both, the PS4 and Nextbox, will stumble out of the gates, because they simply won't have enough appealing software to justify their price tags. If you need an extreme example to understand what I mean, look at Guitar Hero and Rock Band. Guitar Hero was beating Rock Band right up until the end, but that didn't make GH a winner. That's not to say that the next round of consoles will be discontinued, but that success should not be measured solely by outselling the competition. If the Nextbox and PS4 both launch worldwide in November, I'd be surprised if either of them sold through 4m+ units by March 31st, 2014.

I know that the 360 Core model launched at $299, but it was so gimped that it accounted for so few sales that it can be disregarded entirely.

So, you're going to base this on how well they sell at launch?  How did that work out for the Wii U, which started out above the PS3 and 360 and not too far below the Wii?  It doesn't matter how well they start out, but how they continue to sell.  Just like it didn't matter how strong the Wii started out and weak the PS3 started out, they are both going to finish at about the same number of units sold. 

Only the PS3 has left a better taste in the core gamers' mouths.  The exact same market that is going to matter next gen.  Which, if rumors are true, is the mistake MS is making.  They think as many casuals that turned out for this gen are going to be there for next, so seem to be aiming more for a casual market, with a few bones thrown to the core.  This is partly the reason for the response to the Wii U.  They had a touchscreen pad for the casuals who already enjoy playing on tablets at home, but aimed to be on par graphically with the PS3, which will turn off core gamers for years to come, as many already have 360s and PS3s.  I just don't think casuals are going to turn out in droves like this gen.



 

BeElite on 24 February 2013

PS4 the world
Nextbox english speaking areas
WiiU will in third while making Nin some good cash.

Initial year will be great with early adopters buying it up, economic doom and gloom is funny when millions spend half a K on a phone and stand in lines like sheep for an upgrade not even a new design. Only when Nike cant sale air jordans and posts a loss, then ill take into account people ability to spend .